Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race

7:39 PM 11/22/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.

Anatomy THR - Marriage Story 1 - Publicity-EMBED 1- 2019
Courtesy of Netlix

"[Noah] really allows the audience to experience both sides of the story like no movie I’ve ever seen," says Dern, left, with Johansson.

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
    The Irishman (Netflix)
    Parasite (Neon)
    The Two Popes (Netflix)
    Marriage Story (Netflix)
    Joker (Warner Bros.)
    Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
    Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
    The Farewell (A24)
    Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
    Bombshell (Lionsgate)
    Little Women (Sony)
    Honey Boy (Amazon)
    Rocketman (Paramount)
    Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
    A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Uncut Gems (A24)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    (Sony)
    Waves (A24)
    Downton Abbey (Focus)
    Hustlers (STX)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside)
    Harriet (Focus)

    LONG SHOTS

    Knives Out (Lionsgate) NEW
    Queen & Slim (Universal)
    Dark Waters (Focus) NEW
    Booksmart
    (Annapurna)
    Judy
    (Roadside)
    Us
    (Universal)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Universal)
    Cats (Universal)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
    Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
    Todd Phillips (Joker)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell) NEW
    Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
    Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
    Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)

    POSSIBILITIES

    James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
    Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
    Jay Roach (Bombshell)
    Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
    Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
    Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)

    LONG SHOTS

    Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
    Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
    Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
    Rian Johnson (Knives Out) NEW
    Todd Haynes (Dark Waters) NEW

    STILL TO SEE

    J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
    Tom Hooper (Cats)
    Sam Mendes (1917)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
    Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) NEW

    MAJOR THREATS

    Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
    Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
    Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
    Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
    Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
    Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
    Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon) — podcast
    Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

    LONG SHOTS

    Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
    Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) NEW
    Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
    Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
    Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
    Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
    Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
    Florence Pugh (Midsommar)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
    Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
    Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
    Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)

    LONG SHOTS

    Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
    Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
    Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)
    Mary Kay Place (Diane)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
    Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
    Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast NEW
    Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
    Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
    John Lithgow (Bombshell)
    Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
    Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
    Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
    Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
    Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
    Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcast

    LONG SHOTS

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
    Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
    Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
    Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
    Bill Camp (Dark Waters) NEW
    Billy Eichner (The Lion King)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
    Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) NEW
    Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
    Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
    Florence Pugh (Little Women)
    Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Annette Bening (The Report)
    Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

    Taylor Russell (Waves)
    Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
    Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name)

    LONG SHOTS

    Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty)
    Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
    Janelle Monae (Harriet)
    Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
    Cho Yeo-jeong (Parasite) NEW

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
    The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
    Joker
    (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
    Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
    Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Richard Jewell (Billy Ray) NEW
    Just Mercy
    (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
    Hustlers
    (Lorene Scafaria)
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa) NEW
    Toy Story 4
    (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
    Downton Abbey
    (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
    Judy (Tom Edge)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
    Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
    Avengers: Endgame
    (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)

    STILL TO SEE

    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    (Quentin Tarantino)
    Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
    The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
    Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
    Bombshell
    (Charles Randolph)
    Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
    Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
    Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
    Waves (Trey Edward Shults)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
    Knives Out (Rian Johnson) NEW
    Queen & Slim
    (Lena Waithe) — podcast
    The Lighthouse
    (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
    Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
    The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
    The Report
    (Scott Z. Burns)
    Midsommar
    (Ari Aster)
    A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
    Harriet
    (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
    Rocketman (Lee Hall)

    STILL TO SEE

    1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
    Frozen 2 (Disney)
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
    I Lost My Body (Netflix)
    Klaus (Netflix)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Funan (GKIDS)
    Weathering With You
    (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Abominable (Universal)
    Missing Link
    (United Artists Releasing)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
    The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    American Factory (Netflix)
    Apollo 11 (Neon)
    One Child Nation (Amazon)
    For Sama (PBS)
    The Kingmaker (Showtime)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    The Cave (National Geographic)
    The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
    Sea of Shadows
    (National Geographic)
    Knock Down the House
    (Netflix)
    Diego Maradona (HBO)
    Ask Dr. Ruth
    (Hulu/Magnolia)
    Maiden
    (Sony Classics)
    Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
    5B (RYOT) NEW
    Mike Wallace Is Here
    (Magnolia)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Great Hack (Netflix)
    Cunningham
    (Magnolia)
    Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
    Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia)
    David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)

    LONG SHOTS

    American Dharma (Utopia)
    The Black Godfather (Netflix)
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
    (Juno)
    Love, Antosha (self-distributed)

    STILL TO SEE

    Advocate (Film Movement)
    After Parkland
    (Kino Lorber)
    The All-Americans (Abramorama)
    The Apollo
    (HBO)
    Aquarela (Sony Classics)
    At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal (HBO)
    Black Mother (Grasshopper)
    Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes (Eagle Rock)
    Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
    Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
    Don't Be Nice (Juno)
    Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
    The Edge of Democracy
    (Netflix)
    The Elephant Queen (Apple)
    Emanuel (SDG)
    Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops (HBO)
    #Female Pleasure (Abramorama)
    Fiddlin' (Utopia)
    The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions)
    Gay Chorus Deep South
    (MTV)
    The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube)
    Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky)
    Hail Satan? (Magnolia)
    Honeyland (Neon)
    Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    The Hottest August (Grasshopper)
    Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
    Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    Midnight Family (1091 Media)
    Midnight Traveler
    (Oscilloscope)
    Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool (Abramorama)
    Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    On the President's Orders (PBS)
    The Proposal (Oscilloscope)
    Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins
    (Magnolia)
    Roll Red Roll (PBS)
    Running With Beto (HBO)
    The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
    They Shall Not Grow Old (Warner Bros.)
    Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
    Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
    Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama)

  • Best International Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Parasite (South Korea)
    Pain and Glory (Spain)
    Les Miserables (France)
    A White, White Day (Iceland)
    Invisible Life (Brazil)

    MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)

    Corpus Christi (Poland)
    Instinct (Netherlands)
    Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
    Papicha
    (Algeria)
    The Traitor (Italy)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Atlantics (Senegal)
    Monos
    (Colombia)
    Gully Boy (India)
    Those Who Remained
    (Hungary)
    Our Mothers
    (Belgium)
    It Must Be Heaven
    (Palestine)
    Honeyland (North Macedonia)
    Incitement (Israel)
    System Crasher (Germany)
    And Then We Danced (Sweden)
    Beanpole (Russia)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
    Weathering with You
    (Japan)
    Zana
    (Kosovo)
    Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
    Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
    The Whistlers (Romania)
    The Chambermaid (Mexico)
    Ne Zha (China)
    The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
    Let There Be Light (Slovakia)
    The Painted Bird
    (Czech Republic)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
    The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Joker (Lawrence Sher)
    The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
    Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
    Little Women
    (Yorick Le Saux)
    Marriage Story
    (Robbie Ryan)
    A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
    Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
    The Painted Bird (Vladimir Smutny) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
    Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
    Waves
    (Drew Daniels)
    The Lion King
    (Caleb Deschanel)
    Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Aeronauts (George Steel)
    Bombshell
    (Barry Ackroyd)
    Rocketman (George Richmond)
    Harriet
    (John Toll)
    Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)

    STILL TO COME

    1917 (Roger Deakins)
    Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
    Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
    Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel)