Feinberg Forecast: A Post-AFI Fest, Pre-Thanksgiving Read of the Oscar Race
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.
"[Noah] really allows the audience to experience both sides of the story like no movie I’ve ever seen," says Dern, left, with Johansson.
These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Farewell (A24)
Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) NEWMAJOR THREATS
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Little Women (Sony)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)POSSIBILITIES
Uncut Gems (A24)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Waves (A24)
Downton Abbey (Focus)
Hustlers (STX)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside)
Harriet (Focus)LONG SHOTS
Knives Out (Lionsgate) NEW
Queen & Slim (Universal)
Dark Waters (Focus) NEW
Booksmart (Annapurna)
Judy (Roadside)
Us (Universal)
Avengers: Endgame (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)STILL TO SEE
1917 (Universal)
Cats (Universal)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Todd Phillips (Joker)MAJOR THREATS
Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell) NEW
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcast
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)POSSIBILITIES
James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Jay Roach (Bombshell)
Trey Edward Shults (Waves)
Alma Har'el (Honey Boy)
Destin Daniel Cretton (Just Mercy)LONG SHOTS
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) — podcast
Rian Johnson (Knives Out) NEW
Todd Haynes (Dark Waters) NEWSTILL TO SEE
J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) — podcast
Tom Hooper (Cats)
Sam Mendes (1917) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) NEWMAJOR THREATS
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcast
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon) — podcast
Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)LONG SHOTS
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) NEW
Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim)
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
Adam Driver (The Report) — podcast -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Renee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
Awkwafina (The Farewell) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
Florence Pugh (Midsommar)POSSIBILITIES
Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts)
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast
Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)LONG SHOTS
Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear)
Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)
Mary Kay Place (Diane) -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)MAJOR THREATS
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast NEW
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)POSSIBILITIES
Timothee Chalamet (Little Women) — podcast
Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
Jamie Bell (Rocketman)
Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Harriet) — podcastLONG SHOTS
Robert Downey, Jr. (Avengers: Endgame)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Rob Morgan (Just Mercy)
Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
Bill Camp (Dark Waters) NEW
Billy Eichner (The Lion King) -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) NEW
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)MAJOR THREATS
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcast
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)POSSIBILITIES
Annette Bening (The Report)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Taylor Russell (Waves)
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name)LONG SHOTS
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer (Give Me Liberty)
Meryl Streep (Little Women) — podcast
Janelle Monae (Harriet)
Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory)
Cho Yeo-jeong (Parasite) NEW -
Best Adapted Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Richard Jewell (Billy Ray) NEW
Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)POSSIBILITIES
Dark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa) NEW
Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton)
Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
Judy (Tom Edge)LONG SHOTS
The Laundromat (Scott Z. Burns)
Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
Avengers: Endgame (Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely)STILL TO SEE
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio) — podcast (Abrams)
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Best Original Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcast
Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)
Waves (Trey Edward Shults)POSSIBILITIES
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson) NEW
Queen & Slim (Lena Waithe) — podcast
The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
Ford v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz)LONG SHOTS
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
The Report (Scott Z. Burns)
Midsommar (Ari Aster)
A Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
Harriet (Gregory Allen Howard & Kasi Lemmons)
Rocketman (Lee Hall)STILL TO SEE
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
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Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)
Frozen 2 (Disney)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)MAJOR THREATS
Funan (GKIDS)
Weathering With You (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Abominable (Universal)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)LONG SHOTS
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) -
Best Documentary Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
American Factory (Netflix)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
One Child Nation (Amazon)
For Sama (PBS)
The Kingmaker (Showtime)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)
Sea of Shadows (National Geographic)
Knock Down the House (Netflix)
Diego Maradona (HBO)
Ask Dr. Ruth (Hulu/Magnolia)
Maiden (Sony Classics)
Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz (Vertical)
5B (RYOT) NEW
Mike Wallace Is Here (Magnolia)POSSIBILITIES
The Great Hack (Netflix)
Cunningham (Magnolia)
Tell Me Who I Am (Netflix)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (Magnolia)
David Crosby: Remember My Name (Sony Classics)
LONG SHOTS
American Dharma (Utopia)
The Black Godfather (Netflix)
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael (Juno)
Love, Antosha (self-distributed)STILL TO SEE
Advocate (Film Movement)
After Parkland (Kino Lorber)
The All-Americans (Abramorama)
The Apollo (HBO)
Aquarela (Sony Classics)
At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal (HBO)
Black Mother (Grasshopper)
Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes (Eagle Rock)
Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn (HBO)
Citizen K (Greenwich Entertainment)
Cold Case Hammarskjold (Magnolia)
Don't Be Nice (Juno)
Echo in the Canyon (Greenwich Entertainment)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
The Elephant Queen (Apple)
Emanuel (SDG)
Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops (HBO)
#Female Pleasure (Abramorama)
Fiddlin' (Utopia)
The Game Changers (ReFuel Productions)
Gay Chorus Deep South (MTV)
The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash (YouTube)
Everybody's Everything (Gunpowder & Sky)
Hail Satan? (Magnolia)
Honeyland (Neon)
Hope Frozen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Hottest August (Grasshopper)
Jim Allison: Breakthrough (Dada)
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice (Greenwich Entertainment)
Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Midnight Family (1091 Media)
Midnight Traveler (Oscilloscope)
Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool (Abramorama)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (still seeking U.S. distribution)
On the President's Orders (PBS)
The Proposal (Oscilloscope)
Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins (Magnolia)
Roll Red Roll (PBS)
Running With Beto (HBO)
The Serengeti Rules (Abramorama)
They Shall Not Grow Old (Warner Bros.)
Western Stars (Warner Bros.)
Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics)
Who Will Write Our History? (Abramorama) -
Best International Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
A White, White Day (Iceland)
Invisible Life (Brazil)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Instinct (Netherlands)
Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg)
Papicha (Algeria)
The Traitor (Italy)POSSIBILITIES
Atlantics (Senegal)
Monos (Colombia)
Gully Boy (India)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Our Mothers (Belgium)
It Must Be Heaven (Palestine)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Incitement (Israel)
System Crasher (Germany)
And Then We Danced (Sweden)
Beanpole (Russia)LONG SHOTS
Stupid Young Heart (Finland)
Weathering with You (Japan)
Zana (Kosovo)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
The Whistlers (Romania)
The Chambermaid (Mexico)
Ne Zha (China)
The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind (United Kingdom)
Let There Be Light (Slovakia)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) -
Best Cinematography
FRONTRUNNERS
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)MAJOR THREATS
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
The Painted Bird (Vladimir Smutny) NEWPOSSIBILITIES
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai M?laimare Jr.)
Waves (Drew Daniels)
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)LONG SHOTS
The Aeronauts (George Steel)
Bombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
Rocketman (George Richmond)
Harriet (John Toll)
Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)STILL TO COME
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Gemini Man (Dion Beebe)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel)