The Hollywood Reporter chief TV critic Tim Goodman reveals his picks (from 'The Americans' to 'The Good Place') as awards analyst Scott Feinberg makes his predictions ('Pose' and 'Marvelous Mrs. Maisel' could feel the HFPA love).
SHOULD WIN: The Americans
The Americans just wrapped up six seasons that will put it in the hall of fame, and the last season — the final episode in particular — was spectacularly great in every capacity.
WILL WIN: Pose
The HFPA tends to reward new shows and could go with BBC-to-Netflix option Bodyguard. But members also love Ryan Murphy and love showing that they're edgy, so the edge goes to the groundbreaking Pose.
SHOULD WIN: The Good Place
Arguably the funniest and inarguably the smartest TV comedy, The Good Place is a joy to watch. Its moral philosophy is the vegetable goodness viewers don't know they're eating.
WILL WIN: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Barry, The Kominsky Method and past winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel are tied for the most comedy noms (three). Kominsky, the newest, could win, but Maisel remains popular.
SHOULD WIN: A Very English Scandal
The Stephen Frears-helmed miniseries for Amazon was a brilliantly minimalist and efficient work of art: three episodes, three hours, a wild and eye-popping (and ultimately heartbreaking) story, told wonderfully with great writing, acting and directing.
WILL WIN: Sharp Objects
The Assassination of Gianni Versace has the most noms and Escape at Dannemora is the newest, but Sharp Objects — from HBO, which has dominated in this category for years — feels most like the HFPA's cup of tea.
SHOULD WIN: Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
He wouldn't be winning for six seasons of brilliance on The Americans because it's just about this last season, but he was brilliant all along. It's Matthew Rhys.
WILL WIN: Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
Pose's Billy Porter is formidable, but his show is an ensemble piece. Voters are likelier to go for the undisputed lead of another show they love, Bodyguard's Scotsman Richard Madden.
SHOULD WIN: Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
I'm tempted to just say, "It's Keri Russell" for The Americans (because I'd be right), but you know what? Killing Eve's Sandra Oh also deserves this. She made being great look really fun.
WILL WIN: Julia Roberts (Homecoming)
Handmaid's Tale's Elisabeth Moss could repeat. Killing Eve's Sandra Oh is a threat. But the HFPA loves movie stars, and few are bigger than Homecoming's Julia Roberts.
SHOULD WIN: Jim Carrey (Kidding)
Weirdly and inconceivably, Kidding didn't seem to find its audience (at least not yet), but Jim Carrey found the heart and soul of the lead character and is riveting in every scene.
WILL WIN: Sacha Baron Cohen (Who Is America?)
Don't rule out Barry's Bill Hader or Kidding's Jim Carrey, but this race appears to be Kominsky Method's Michael Douglas vs. Who Is America?'s Sacha Baron Cohen, who won for similarly wacky Borat.
SHOULD WIN: Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
Who perfected the skillful art of hilarious, complicated monologues that reveal character traits and also move plot? The Good Place's Kristen Bell, that's who.
WILL WIN: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Though it's been a decade since a winner repeated in this category, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel's Rachel Brosnahan seems a likelier bet than perennial bridesmaid Debra Messing or anyone else.
SHOULD WIN: Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose)
The delicate trick here was for Cumberbatch to be gloriously funny in his debauchery while also suggesting all the sorrow underneath — and he was exceptional at it.
WILL WIN: Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal)
Four nominees already went before TV Academy voters, who honored one, The Assassination of Gianni Versace’s Darren Criss. The HFPA could second that, but seem likelier to pick fresh meat: 1996 Globe winner Hugh Grant.
SHOULD WIN: Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora)
Actors often play ugly via make-up or fat suits or bad teeth, but few deliver performances that transcend the physical distraction. Arquette succeeded in creating a full fleshed-out character who wasn't some idle co-conspirator, but a life-long bad seed.
WILL WIN: Amy Adams (Sharp Objects)
The options not previously available to Emmy voters are Escape at Dannemora’s Patricia Arquette, Dirty John’s Connie Britton and Sharp Objects’ Amy Adams — a two-time Globe winner who could win two more on Sunday.
SHOULD WIN: Henry Winkler (Barry)
In a very solid category, it's just difficult to look at Winkler and not love what he brought to the tone-jumping HBO comedy: His timing was masterful as an acting coach who isn't a very good actor.
WILL WIN: Henry Winkler (Barry)
The HFPA loves no comedy more than Barry and Winkler as much as anyone — one of the nicest guys in the biz, he already has won two Globes, the most recent one 41 years ago! There is no obvious alternative in the category.
SHOULD WIN: Thandie Newton (Westworld)
Though the HBO series was much more erratic in its sophomore season than in its first year, Newton rose to new heights, beautifully exhibiting nuance as her character gained powers.
WILL WIN: Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Voters may be tempted by the star power of Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace) and Thandie Newton (Westworld) and the newness of Sharp Objects (Patricia Clarkson), but I expect Maisel’s sweep to continue.
A version of this story first appeared in the Jan. 4 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.