The Hollywood Reporter chief TV critic Daniel Fienberg reveals his picks (from 'Succession' to 'Fleabag') as awards analyst Scott Feinberg makes his predictions ('The Crown' and, yes, 'Fleabag' could feel the HFPA love).
Click here to see Feinberg and chief film critic Todd McCarthy's picks for who will and should win in the film categories.
SHOULD WIN: Succession
This should be the moment HBO's Succession moves from critical and social media darling to being recognized as TV's most scathing, best-acted drama (one that's actually a dark comedy).
WILL WIN: The Crown
Big Little Lies dominated the Globes when it was last eligible. The Morning Show is the shiny new toy. Succession has yet to be crowned a big winner. And The Crown's four noms leads all dramas. Slight edge to the past winner with European flavor.
SHOULD WIN: Fleabag
Phoebe Waller-Bridge crafted a perfectly contained mixture of romantic yearning, spiritual uncertainty and hilarious discomfort. The second season of Fleabag is precociously and obnoxiously good.
WILL WIN: Fleabag
Rookie nominees tend to win; this year's only one is The Politician. But I sense greater heat for past winners The Kominsky Method and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel as well as runner-up Barry. Also a strong contender is Fleabag, the only nominee set outside America.
SHOULD WIN: Unbelievable
The Globes failed to nominate When They See Us, which would have been my slim favorite, going instead with the latex-encased mediocrity of The Loudest Voice and the general mediocrity of Catch-22. Both Unbelievable and Chernobyl would still be deserving winners, with a slight edge to Unbelievable and its remarkable ensemble cast.
WILL WIN: Unbelievable
Chernobyl and Unbelievable have four noms, as many as any show; Fosse/Verdon has three. Chernobyl swept the Emmys, and the HFPA hates to follow, so bet on the more recently dropped Netflix title, with The Loudest Voice an upset possibility.
SHOULD WIN: Billy Porter (Pose)
In a different era, his performance could have justly been considered "supporting," but Pose star Billy Porter deserves to win for another season blending flamboyance and searing, grounded pain.
WILL WIN: Brian Cox (Succession)
Mr. Robot's Rami Malek (a past Globe winner), Game of Thrones' Kit Harington and Pose's Billy Porter are their shows' sole nominees — not a good sign. That leaves The Crown's Tobias Menzies and Succession's Brian Cox.
SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman (The Crown)
Olivia Colman won a 2019 Globe for her scenery-chewing excellence in The Favourite and deserves another for her contrastingly quiet and effortlessly understated work on The Crown.
WILL WIN: Olivia Colman (The Crown)
Nicole Kidman won two years ago for Big Little Lies. The Morning Show's Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon both have support. But Olivia Colman, a winner last year for The Favourite, will win again, this time for her first season as QEII.
SHOULD WIN: Bill Hader (Barry)
I want to recognize Ramy Youssef for doing so much in his Hulu breakout, but if we're just talking acting, Bill Hader responded to Barry's darker second season with raw, angry and funny nuance.
WILL WIN: Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
Living With Yourself's Paul Rudd and Ramy's Ramy Youssef, their shows' sole nominees, have limited support. Barry's Bill Hader lost last year to Kominsky's Michael Douglas, whose chief challenger this cycle is probably The Politician's Ben Platt.
SHOULD WIN: Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida)
There's no wrong choice in this stacked category, but give this one to Kirsten Dunst — whose On Becoming a God in Central Florida would fall into caricature without her funny-yet-human work.
WILL WIN: Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag)
Dead to Me's Christina Applegate, Russian Doll's Natasha Lyonne and On Becoming a God in Central Florida's Kirsten Dunst will lose to Maisel's two-time winner Rachel Brosnahan or Fleabag phenom Phoebe Waller-Bridge.
SHOULD WIN: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Spy)
Christopher Abbott's presence here is a minor joke — not a bad performance but not worthy of inclusion over the likes of Jharrel Jerome and Mahershala Ali. Jared Harris is always great, and Russell Crowe deserves some credit for acting through rubber. I'm surprised to feel this way, but Sacha Baron Cohen gets my vote here, edging out Sam Rockwell. It's not a surprise that Cohen can do good, subtle character work, but I was surprised by how good and subtle he was in The Spy.
WILL WIN: Jared Harris (Chernobyl)
There are a lot of quality options in this category, but I suspect that the HFPA, unlike the TV Academy, will honor Chernobyl here by voting for Jared Harris (though The Loudest Voice's Russell Crowe shouldn't be counted out).
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams for Fosse/Verdon, but really anybody other than Helen Mirren.
The only wrong choice in this stacked category would be Helen Mirren, which says a lot since the Dame is very good in Catherine the Great. It makes me very sad not to be able to select Kaitlyn Dever, Joey King and Merritt Wever here, but if I'm just pointing to the best performance in this group, Michelle Williams sings, dances and breaks your heart in Fosse/Verdon.
WILL WIN: Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great)
It seems likely that Unbelievable's Kaitlyn Dever and Merritt Wever will cancel each other out. That could pave the way for Fosse/Verdon's Michelle Williams — or three-time Globe winner Helen Mirren for HBO's more recent Catherine the Great.
SHOULD WIN: Andrew Scott (Fleabag)
These are all decent choices, but I think it's important to acknowledge that what Andrew Scott does in Fleabag goes well beyond merely putting the "hot" in Hot Priest. The priest's torment mirrors the agony felt by Phoebe Waller-Bridge's title character, and if we don't buy it, we don't buy the key dilemma of the season. Kieran Culkin is my second choice.
WILL WIN: Andrew Scott (Fleabag)
Kominsky's Alan Arkin, Succession's Kieran Culkin and Barry's Henry Winkler were nominated and lost last year, so I'd focus on Chernobyl's Stellan Skarsgard and Fleabag's "hot priest," Andrew Scott. Ties usually break for youth and looks.
SHOULD WIN: Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
Emily Watson gives the least exciting of these five performances, and she's terrific in Chernobyl, so this is another solid field. For me, it comes down to Patricia Arquette versus Toni Collette, and in this case, I go with "less is more." Collette, along with Wever, has to deliver enough humor and ease to keep Unbelievable from feeling like a chore. She and Wever — the "lead" versus "supporting" designation is bizarre here — have so much chemistry and likability between them that I'd watch a spinoff series in a second.
WILL WIN: Toni Collette (Unbelievable)
Big Little Lies' Meryl Streep is always a threat; The Act's Patricia Arquette already won an Emmy; and The Crown's new Margaret, Helena Bonham Carter, is seeking win No. 1 for nom No. 8. But I suspect voters will break for past winner Toni Collette.
A version of this story appears in the Jan. 8 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.