Looking at the landscape of shows that bowed after the Emmys, broadcast's shots hinge on just a few freshmen, but streamers and cablers look strong with such first-timers as Amazon's 'Homecoming,' FX's 'Pose' and more.
Sam Esmail's Homecoming (above), starring TV newbie Julia Roberts, is the sort of thing Globe voters love. Less certain, but possible, are the limited series The Romanoffs (Matthew Weiner's return) and supernatural comedy Forever, co-created by Alan Yang (Master of None) and Matt Hubbard (30 Rock) for Fred Armisen and Maya Rudolph.
The newest streamer has won raves for Sorry for Your Loss, its understated drama (created by Kit Steinkellner) about a woman (Elizabeth Olsen) whose husband unexpectedly dies, leaving her to reassess her life while cohabiting with her recovering alcoholic sister (Star Wars' Kelly Marie Tran) and slightly overbearing mother (Janet McTeer).
Voters may not be able to resist the star power of Sean Penn, making his first foray into TV on The First, former House of Cards showrunner Beau Willimon's high-production-value eight-episode drama about the first manned mission to Mars. Natascha McElhone (Designated Survivor) co-stars in the series, which earned mixed reviews from critics.
Bet on The Kominsky Method, Chuck Lorre's comedy starring Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin. Also contending: limited series Maniac, which reunites Superbad's Emma Stone and Jonah Hill; BBC drama Bodyguard; Toni Collette drama Wanderlust; and horror-dramas The Haunting of Hill House and Chilling Adventures of Sabrina.
From the network that aired Mad Men and Breaking Bad comes the quirky dramedy Lodge 49, which was recently renewed, despite low ratings, because critics have championed it. The show stars Wyatt Russell, son of Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn, and the Globes have been partial to stars' kids.
Two past Globe winners return: Jim Carrey, a Mr. Rogers-like TV personality on Kidding, and Sacha Baron Cohen for Who Is America? Fellow funnyman Ben Stiller directs Escape at Dannemora, a limited series about a prison break starring Benicio Del Toro, Paul Dano and Patricia Arquette.
The Globes seem very fond of USA Network, too, having honored Mr. Robot and nominated Covert Affairs, Necessary Roughness and — just last year — limited series The Sinner, with Jessica Biel. The second installment, starring Carrie Coon, has been lower rated but better reviewed.
Ryan Murphy's groundbreaking ball-culture drama Pose, which boasts the largest ever cast of trans actors, is a surefire contender. It could be joined by Mayans MC, Kurt Sutter's spinoff of Sons of Anarchy (which won Katey Sagal a Globe) and possibly the dark comedy Mr Inbetween.
Look for many noms to be spread between limited series Sharp Objects (above), with two-time Globe winner Amy Adams, and drama Succession, about a Murdoch-like family. Less likely: Lena Dunham and Jenni Konner's comedy Camping, starring Jennifer Garner, which has been poorly reviewed.
Starz — a network that the Globes love (see the many nominations for Outlander) — hasn't had any strong contenders crop up since the Emmys but has a real shot with Vida, a well-reviewed drama about estranged Mexican-American sisters that was passed over by the TV Academy.
Connie Britton, Eric Bana, Juno Temple and Julia Garner could be in the mix for Dirty John, a limited series adapted from a true-crime podcast.
ABC and NBC
Things appear pretty bleak for broadcast, with only two rookies standing out as possibilities — and outside ones at that. ABC has The Conners, which rose from the ashes of Roseanne, and for which John Goodman, Sara Gilbert and Laurie Metcalf are contenders. NBC, meanwhile, is pinning its hopes on New Amsterdam, a Ryan Eggold-led medical procedural that has generated mixed notices but strong ratings. (It doesn't hurt that its lead-in is This Is Us.)
This story first appeared in a November stand-alone issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.