Call it 'The Purge: Multiplexes' as the usual box-office behemoths are AWOL in the key period between June 24 and the holiday, and wannabes go soft in early tracking. Says analyst Paul Dergarabedian: "This year looks a bit different than in the past."
STX Entertainment is counting on adults lining up to see the Civil War drama, but prerelease surveys show the Gary Ross-directed film opening in the $8 million to $13 million range, which would be a disappointing start for star Matthew McConaughey.
The first Independence Day raced to a record six-day, $96.1 million opening during the July 4 holiday in 1996 ($141 million today). Fox's Resurgence — without Will Smith — hopes for a more modest three-day debut of $50 million.
Steven Spielberg's adaptation of Roald Dahl's children's book may have trouble crossing $30 million in its holiday debut. Disney, Amblin and Participant Media partnered on the film, which will vie for family attention with Disney's Finding Dory.
Warner Bros. might have another big-budget miss on its hands as Legend of Tarzan, like BFG, may not earn much more than $30 million in its domestic bow. If so, blame stale material and a lack of A-list stars in this franchise play.
The third outing in Universal's horror franchise — produced by Jason Blum and Michael Bay — is tracking to open north of $20 million, not bad considering how little it cost. One competitor is Sony's Blake Lively shark movie, The Shallows (June 24).