July Fourth Box Office: Few Fireworks Expected as ‘BFG,’ ‘Tarzan’ Track Poorly

Free State of Jones

Budget: $50M

STX Entertainment is counting on adults lining up to see the Civil War drama, but prerelease surveys show the Gary Ross-directed film opening in the $8 million to $13 million range, which would be a disappointing start for star Matthew McConaughey.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Budget: $165M

The first Independence Day raced to a record six-day, $96.1 million opening during the July 4 holiday in 1996 ($141 million today). Fox's Resurgence — without Will Smith — hopes for a more modest three-day debut of $50 million.

The BFG

Budget: $140M

Steven Spielberg's adaptation of Roald Dahl's children's book may have trouble crossing $30 million in its holiday debut. Disney, Amblin and Participant Media partnered on the film, which will vie for family attention with Disney's Finding Dory.

The Legend of Tarzan

Warner Bros. might have another big-budget miss on its hands as Legend of Tarzan, like BFG, may not earn much more than $30 million in its domestic bow. If so, blame stale material and a lack of A-list stars in this franchise play.

The Purge: Election Year

Budget: $10M

The third outing in Universal's horror franchise — produced by Jason Blum and Michael Bay — is tracking to open north of $20 million, not bad considering how little it cost. One competitor is Sony's Blake Lively shark movie, The Shallows (June 24).