Feinberg Forecast: Trick or Treat, the Oscar Race Heads Into November

Oscar Predictions — Feinberg Forecast — Francois Duhamel/Twentieth Century Fox

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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Best Picture

Image Credit: Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Fences (Paramount)
Silence (Paramount)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Loving (Focus Features)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)

MAJOR THREATS

The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)
20th Century Women (A24)
Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
The Jungle Book (Disney)
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Hidden Figures (Fox)

POSSIBILITIES

Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) [pictured above]
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
Arrival (Paramount)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
Snowden (Open Road)

LONG SHOTS

The Lobster (A24)
Allied (Paramount)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Sony)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films)
Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
Best Director

Image Credit: Claire Folger/Courtesy of Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) [pictured above]
Garth Davis (Lion)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

MAJOR THREATS

Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)

POSSIBILITIES

Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)

LONG SHOTS

Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Oliver Stone (Snowden)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Best Actor

Image Credit: Lewis Jacobs/The Weinstein Company

FRONTRUNNERS

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

MAJOR THREATS

Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply) NEW
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold) [pictured above]
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)

POSSIBILITIES

Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Robert De Niro (The Comedian)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)

LONG SHOTS

Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Brad Pitt (Allied)
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
Ethan Hawke (Born to Be Blue)
Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)
Best Actress

Image Credit: Courtesy of 20th Century Fox

FRONTRUNNERS

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Ruth Negga (Loving)

MAJOR THREATS

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
Marion Cotillard (Allied)

POSSIBILITIES

Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Rachel Weisz (Denial)

LONG SHOTS

Sarah Paulson (Blue Jay)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)
Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Liam Neeson (Silence)

MAJOR THREATS

Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

POSSIBILITIES

Timothy Spall (Denial)
Jeremy Irons (The Man Who Knew Infinity) [pictured above]
Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church)
Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation)

LONG SHOTS

David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)
Andre Holland (Moonlight)
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Best Supporting Actress

Image Credit: Merrick Morton/A24

FRONTRUNNERS

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Viola Davis (Fences) NEW
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)

MAJOR THREATS

Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
Molly Shannon (Other People)
Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)

LONG SHOTS

Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
Shailene Woodley (Snowden)
Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation)
Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge)
Best Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes

FRONTRUNNERS

Lion (Luke Davies)
Fences (August Wilson)
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)

MAJOR THREATS

Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

POSSIBILITIES

Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
Denial (David Hare)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

LONG SHOTS

The BFG (Melissa Mathison)
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
The Little Prince (Irena Brignull, Bob Persichetti) [pictured above]
Indignation (James Schamus)
American Pastoral (John Romano)
Best Original Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival

FRONTRUNNERS

Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Jeff Nichols)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)

POSSIBILITIES

Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)
Allied (Steven Knight)
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch) NEW [pictured above]

LONG SHOTS

Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
Cafe Society (Woody Allen)
Best Animated Feature

Image Credit: Dreamworks/Screenshot

FRONTRUNNERS

Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney)
Finding Dory (Pixar)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)

MAJOR THREATS

The Little Prince (Netflix)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation) [pictured above]
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)

POSSIBILITIES

Sing (Illumination/Universal)
Tower (Kino Lorber) NEW
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!)

LONG SHOTS

Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
Angry Birds (Sony Animation)
Storks (Warner Bros.)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
Best Documentary Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Life, Animated (The Orchard)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
13th (Netflix)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
Miss Sharon Jones! (Starz)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You (Music Box)
Off the Rails (The Film Collaborative)
First Monday in May (Magnolia)

POSSIBILITIES

The Witness (FilmRise)
Tickled (Magnolia)
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative) [pictured above]
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
We Are X (Drafthouse)
Newtown (Abramorama)
By Sidney Lumet (Augusta Films/American Masters)
Audrie & Daisy (Netflix)
Holy Hell (CNN)
Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing (HBO Films)
Author: The JT Leroy Story (Amazon)
The Music of Strangers (The Orchard)
Defying the Nazis: The Sharps' War (PBS)
Presenting Princess Shaw (Magnolia)
Into the Inferno (Netflix)
Amanda Knox (Netflix)
Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures (HBO Films)
De Palma (A24)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Hulu/Abramorama)
Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)

LONG SHOTS

Trapped (Abramorama)
Before the Flood (National Geographic)
Nuts! (mTuckman Media)
The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (TBD)
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words (Sony Classics)
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (Magnolia)
Justin Timberlake + The Tennessee Kids (Netflix)
Everything Is Copy (HBO Films)
California Typewriter (TBD)
Command and Control (PBS)
Do Not Resist (Vanish Films)
Kate Plays Christine (Grasshopper Film)
Chasing Trane (TBD)
Be Here Now (TBD)
Under the Gun (Lionsgate)
Harry Benson: Shoot First (Magnolia)
Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO Films)
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (Icarus Films)
Best Foreign Language Film

Image Credit: Courtesy of Memento Distribution

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)
Fire at Sea (Italy)
Elle (France)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Julieta (Spain)
The Idol (Palestine)
Ma' Rosa (Philippines)

MAJOR THREATS

Afterimage (Poland)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
Desierto (Mexico)
The Salesman (Iran) [pictured above]
Sand Storm (Israel)
Neruda (Chile)
From Afar (Venezuela)
Paradise (Russia)
The Ardennes (Belgium)
Sieranevada (Romania)
Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
House of Others (Georgia)
Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
Tonio (Netherlands)

POSSIBILITIES

Chevalier (Greece)
Call Me Thief (South Africa)
Alias Maria (Colombia)
Clash (Egypt)
The Age of Shadows (South Korea)
Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
Tanna (Australia)
The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
The Companion (Cuba)
The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

LONG SHOTS

Mother (Estonia)
Apprentice (Singapore)
Losers (Bulgaria)
On the Other Side (Croatia)
Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
The Black Hen (Nepal)
Raftan (Afghanistan)
Little Secret (Brazil)
Best Cinematography

Image Credit: Courtesy of David Bornfriend/A24

FRONTRUNNERS

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
Voyage of Time: Life’s Journey (Paul Atkins)

POSSIBILITIES

Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
Gold (Robert Elswit)
The Birth of a Nation (Elliot Davis)

LONG SHOTS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Sully (Tom Stern)
Allied (Don Burgess)
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
Hidden Figures (Mandy Walker)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Best Costume Design

Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

FRONTRUNNERS

Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Fences (Sharen Davis)
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Colleen Atwood)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)

MAJOR THREATS

Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)

POSSIBILITIES

Loving (Erin Benach)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
The BFG (Joanna Johnston)

LONG SHOTS

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Colleen Atwood)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
The Dressmaker (Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Best Film Editing

Image Credit: David Lee/Paramount Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)

MAJOR THREATS

Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
The Birth of a Nation (Steven Rosenblum)
Passengers (Maryann Brandon)

POSSIBILITIES

Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
Sully (Blu Murray)
Fences (Hughes Winborne) [pictured above]
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Tim Squyre)

LONG SHOTS

Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)
Allied (Jeremiah O’Driscoll)
Snowden (Alex Marquez, Lee Percy)
Arrival (Joe Walker)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Image Credit: Courtesy of Disney

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
A Monster Calls
Jackie
Hidden Figures
The BFG [pictured above]
Hacksaw Ridge
Deadpool

MAJOR THREATS

Silence
The Jungle Book
Live By Night
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

POSSIBILITIES

Suicide Squad
Fences
Rules Don't Apply
La La Land

LONG SHOTS

Love & Friendship
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Best Original Score

FRONTRUNNERS

Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer)
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
The BFG (John Williams)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino) [pictured above]
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)
Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber)
The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Denial (Howard Shore)

POSSIBILITIES

Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Jackie (Micachu)
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Fences (Marcelo Zarvos)
Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)

LONG SHOTS

Allied (Alan Silvestri)
Arrival (Johann Johannson)
Queen of Katwe (Alex Heffes)
The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)
Snowden (Craig Armstrong, Adam Peters)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)
The Little Prince (Richard Harvey, Hans Zimmer)
Best Original Song

Image Credit: Courtesy of Columbia Pictures and Rovio Animation

FRONTRUNNERS

"City of Stars" (La La Land) — Ryan Gosling
"Letters to the Free" (13th) — Common
"Audition" (La La Land) — Emma Stone
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po) — Burt Bacharach
"We Know the Way" (Moana) — Lin Manuel Miranda

MAJOR THREATS

"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) — Justin Timberlake
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones) — Sharon Jones
"Running" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party) — Alan Menken, Chris Lennertz
"Go Now" (Sing Street) — Adam Levine
"Victory" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams

POSSIBILITIES

"Start a Fire" (La La Land) — John Legend
"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) — Eddie Arkin, Lorraine Feather
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason) — Mike McCready
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress) — Sia
"Try Everything" (Zootopia) — Shakira
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy) — Tori Amos
"Set It Free" (Sing) — Scarlett Johansson

LONG SHOTS

"The Veil" (Snowden) — Peter Gabriel
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie) — Blake Shelton [pictured above]
"The Empty Chair" (The James Foley Story) — J. Ralph, Sting
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) — Pink
"I'm So Humble" (Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping) — Adam Levine
"Down with Mary" (Too Late) — John Hawkes NEW
Best Production Design

Image Credit: Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (David Wasco)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison) [pictured above]
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
Allied (Gary Freeman)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
The BFG (Rick Carter)
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Dan Hennah)
A Monster Calls (Eugenio Caballero)

POSSIBILITIES

Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
The Birth of a Nation (Geoffrey Kirkland)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Fences (David Gropman)

LONG SHOTS

Gold (Maria Djurkovic)
The Neon Demon (Elliott Hostetter)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Gavin Boxquet)
The Little Prince (Celine Desrumaux, Lou Romano)
Best Sound Editing

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [pictured above]
Hacksaw Ridge
Passengers

MAJOR THREATS

Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day

POSSIBILITIES

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse
Best Sound Mixing

Image Credit: CBS Films

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hacksaw Ridge
Passengers

MAJOR THREATS

Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse
Best Visual Effects

Image Credit: Courtesy of Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
A Monster Calls
Passengers
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
Sully

MAJOR THREATS

10 Cloverfield Lane
Arrival
Jason Bourne

POSSIBILITIES

Captain America: Civil War
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Alice Through the Looking Glass

LONG SHOTS

Suicide Squad
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
X-Men: Apocalypse [pictured above]
Best Documentary Short

Image Credit: Netflix

FRONTRUNNERS

Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films) [pictured above]
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

MAJOR THREATS

Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)