Feinberg Forecast: The Oscar Race After AFI, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes Noms

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)
Arrival (Paramount) [pictured above]
Silence (Paramount)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Focus Features)
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
20th Century Women (A24)

POSSIBILITIES

Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
Deadpool (Fox)

LONG SHOTS

Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

MAJOR THREATS

Martin Scorsese (Silence)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Garth Davis (Lion)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

LONG SHOTS

Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)

Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Denzel Washington (Fences) [pictured above]
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)

MAJOR THREATS

Tom Hanks (Sully)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Adam Driver (Paterson)

POSSIBILITIES

Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)

LONG SHOTS

Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)
Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Jonah Hill (War Dogs) NEW
 

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

MAJOR THREATS

Ruth Negga (Loving)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)

LONG SHOTS

Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Rebecca Hall (Christine)

Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) [pictured above]
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

MAJOR THREATS

Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

POSSIBILITIES

Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
Issey Ogata (Silence)

LONG SHOTS

Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)

Best Supporting Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

MAJOR THREATS

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Gretchen Mol (Manchester By the Sea) NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Sienna Miller (Live By Night)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge) NEW

LONG SHOTS

Lily Gladstone (Certain Women) NEW
Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
Molly Shannon (Other People)

Best Adapted Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

Lion (Luke Davies)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Fences (August Wilson)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

POSSIBILITIES

Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
Elle (David Birke) NEW
Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)

LONG SHOTS

Queen of Katwe (William Wheeler)
Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

Best Original Screenplay

FRONTRUNNERS

Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle) [pictured above]
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Jeff Nichols)
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

POSSIBILITIES

Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)

LONG SHOTS

Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Gold (Patrick Massett, John Zinman)

Best Animated Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features) [pictured above]
Moana (Disney)
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)

MAJOR THREATS

Finding Dory (Pixar)
The Little Prince (Netflix)
Your Name. (FUNimation) 
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

POSSIBILITIES

Sing (Illumination/Universal)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!)

LONG SHOTS

Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
Storks (Warner Bros.)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

Best Documentary Feature

FRONTRUNNERS

I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
13th (Netflix)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)

MAJOR THREATS

Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
The Witness (FilmRise)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Command and Control (PBS)

Best Foreign Language Film

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Elle (France)
Fire at Sea (Italy)
The Salesman (Iran)
Neruda (Chile)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Julieta (Spain)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)
The Ardennes (Belgium)

MAJOR THREATS

The Idol (Palestine)
Ma' Rosa (Philippines)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Afterimage (Poland)
Tanna (Australia)
Chevalier (Greece)
From Afar (Venezuela)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
Desierto (Mexico)
Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
Paradise (Russia)
Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
House of Others (Georgia)
Sand Storm (Israel)
Sieranevada (Romania)

POSSIBILITIES

Little Secret (Brazil)
Age of Shadows (South Korea)
Tonio (Netherlands)
Interrogation (India)
Call Me Thief (South Africa)
Alias Maria (Colombia)
Clash (Egypt)
Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

LONG SHOTS

About Us (Costa Rica)
The Companion (Cuba)
Mother (Estonia) [pictured above]
Very Big Shot (Lebanon)
Apprentice (Singapore)
Losers (Bulgaria)
On the Other Side (Croatia)
Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
The Black Hen (Nepal)
Raftan (Afghanistan)

Best Cinematography

FRONTRUNNERS

Moonlight (James Laxton) [pictured above]
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)

MAJOR THREATS

Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

POSSIBILITIES

The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Sully (Tom Stern)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)

LONG SHOTS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
The Eagle Huntress (Simon Niblett)

Best Costume Design

FRONTRUNNERS

Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)

MAJOR THREATS

Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)

POSSIBILITIES

Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Loving (Erin Benach) [pictured above]
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)
Fences (Sharen Davis)

LONG SHOTS

Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)

Best Film Editing

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert) [pictured above]
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Arrival (Joe Walker)

MAJOR THREATS

Sully (Blu Murray)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)

POSSIBILITIES

Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
Passengers (Maryann Brandon)

LONG SHOTS

The BFG (Michael Kahn)
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Jackie [pictured above]
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Doctor Strange
Star Trek Beyond
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Hacksaw Ridge
Deadpool

MAJOR THREATS

Silence
A Monster Calls
Love & Friendship
Suicide Squad
The BFG

POSSIBILITIES

The Jungle Book
Live By Night
Fences
Rules Don't Apply
La La Land

LONG SHOTS

Hidden Figures
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War

Best Original Score

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
Arrival (Johann Johannson)
Jackie (Micachu)

MAJOR THREATS

Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
The BFG (John Williams)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)

POSSIBILITIES

Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber) [pictured above]
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)

LONG SHOTS

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
Allied (Alan Silvestri)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
Denial (Howard Shore)
The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)

Best Original Song

FRONTRUNNERS

"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana) [pictured above]
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
"Letters to the Free" (13th)
"Audition" (La La Land)

MAJOR THREATS

"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
"Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
"Gold" (Gold)

POSSIBILITIES

"Faith" (Sing)
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
"Running" (Hidden Figures)
"Go Now" (Sing Street)
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
"Victory" (Hidden Figures)
"Start a Fire" (La La Land)

LONG SHOTS

"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
"Try Everything" (Zootopia)
"Set It Free" (Sing)
"The Veil" (Snowden)
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

Best Production Design

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (David Wasco)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)

MAJOR THREATS

Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Silence (Dante Ferretti) [pictured above]
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

POSSIBILITIES

Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
Allied (Gary Freeman)

LONG SHOTS

The BFG (Rick Carter)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Gold (Maria Djurkovic)

Best Sound Editing

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Deepwater Horizon

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
Deadpool
Sully
Live By Night
Allied

POSSIBILITIES

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse

Best Sound Mixing

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Deepwater Horizon

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool [pictured above]
Sully
Live By Night
Allied

POSSIBILITIES

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse

Best Visual Effects

FRONTRUNNERS

The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Arrival
Deadpool

MAJOR THREATS

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [pictured above]
Passengers
Star Trek Beyond
The BFG
Suicide Squad

POSSIBILITIES

Deepwater Horizon
Sully
Captain America: Civil War
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Alice Through the Looking Glass

LONG SHOTS

X-Men: Apocalypse
Independence Day: Resurgence
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Warcraft
Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Animated Short

FRONTRUNNERS

Inner Workings (Disney)
Piper (Pixar)
Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department) [pictured above]
Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

MAJOR THREATS

Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

Best Documentary Short

FRONTRUNNERS

Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions) 
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley) [pictured above]
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

MAJOR THREATS

Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)