Oscar Predictions — Feinberg Forecast

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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Best Picture

Image Credit: Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Arrival (Paramount)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Sully (Warner Bros.)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Focus Features)
Silence (Paramount)
Fences (Paramount)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
20th Century Women (A24)

LONG SHOTS

Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Best Director

Image Credit: Courtesy of Mark Rogers/ Long Way Home Productions/The Weinstein Company

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

MAJOR THREATS

Denzel Washington (Fences)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Garth Davis (Lion) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Clint Eastwood (Sully)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

LONG SHOTS

Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Best Actor

Image Credit: Courtesy of Alchemy/Sundance Institute

FRONTRUNNERS

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

MAJOR THREATS

Tom Hanks (Sully)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Adam Driver (Paterson)

POSSIBILITIES

Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)
Colin Farrell (The Lobster) [pictured above]
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)

LONG SHOTS

Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Best Actress

Image Credit: Courtesy of Dream Works Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)

MAJOR THREATS

Amy Adams (Arrival)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

POSSIBILITIES

Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

LONG SHOTS

Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) [pictured above]
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Best Supporting Actor

Image Credit: Photofest

FRONTRUNNERS

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

MAJOR THREATS

Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

POSSIBILITIES

Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
Issey Ogata (Silence)

LONG SHOTS

Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Best Supporting Actress

Image Credit: Courtesy of TIFF

FRONTRUNNERS

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

MAJOR THREATS

Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars)

POSSIBILITIES

Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls) [pictured above]
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)

LONG SHOTS

Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
Molly Shannon (Other People)
Best Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: David Bornfriend

FRONTRUNNERS

Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) [pictured above]
Lion (Luke Davies)
Fences (August Wilson)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)

MAJOR THREATS

Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Loving (Jeff Nichols)

POSSIBILITIES

Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)

LONG SHOTS

The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)
Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)
Best Original Screenplay

Image Credit: Disney

FRONTRUNNERS

Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

MAJOR THREATS

20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston) [pictured above]

POSSIBILITIES

Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)

LONG SHOTS

Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Best Animated Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of FOX Family Entertainment

FRONTRUNNERS

Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)

MAJOR THREATS

The Little Prince (Netflix)
Finding Dory (Pixar)
Your Name. (FUNimation)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

POSSIBILITIES

Sing (Illumination/Universal)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!)

LONG SHOTS

Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation) [pictured above]
The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
Storks (Warner Bros.)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
Best Documentary Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of New York Film Festival

FRONTRUNNERS

I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
13th (Netflix)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)

MAJOR THREATS

Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
Tower (Kino Lorber)

POSSIBILITIES

The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
The Witness (FilmRise) [pictured above]
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Command and Control (PBS)
Best Foreign Language Film

FRONTRUNNERS

Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Tanna (Australia)

MAJOR THREATS

The King's Choice (Norway)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
Paradise (Russia) [pictured above]
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
Best Cinematography

Image Credit: Claire Folger

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

POSSIBILITIES

Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes) [pictured above]
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
Sully (Tom Stern)

LONG SHOTS

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
Best Costume Design

Image Credit: Courtesy of Claire Folger/Warner Bros.

FRONTRUNNERS

Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
Live By Night (Jacqueline West) [pictured above]
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)

POSSIBILITIES

Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Loving (Erin Benach)
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

LONG SHOTS

Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Fences (Sharen Davis)
The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
Best Film Editing

Image Credit: Lorey Sebastian

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)

MAJOR THREATS

Arrival (Joe Walker)
Sully (Blu Murray)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)

POSSIBILITIES

Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts) [pictured above]
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)

LONG SHOTS

Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Image Credit: Courtesy of Mark Rogers/Cross Creek Pictures

PROJECTED SHORTLIST

Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Doctor Strange
Star Trek Beyond
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Hacksaw Ridge [pictured above]
Deadpool

MAJOR THREATS

Silence
A Monster Calls
Love & Friendship
Suicide Squad
The BFG

POSSIBILITIES

The Jungle Book
Live By Night
Fences
Rules Don't Apply
La La Land

LONG SHOTS

Hidden Figures
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Best Original Score

Image Credit: Twentieth Century Fox Films

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
Jackie (Micachu)
The BFG (John Williams)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)

POSSIBILITIES

Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)

LONG SHOTS

Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
Allied (Alan Silvestri)
Best Original Song

Image Credit: Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival

FRONTRUNNERS

"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
"Letters to the Free" (13th)
"Audition" (La La Land)

MAJOR THREATS

"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
"Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
"Gold" (Gold)

POSSIBILITIES

"Faith" (Sing)
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
"Running" (Hidden Figures)
"Go Now" (Sing Street)
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
"Victory" (Hidden Figures)
"Start a Fire" (La La Land)
"Heathens" (Suicide Squad)

LONG SHOTS

"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
"Try Everything" (Zootopia)
"Set It Free" (Sing)
"The Veil" (Snowden) [pictured above]
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)
Best Production Design

Image Credit: Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (David Wasco)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

POSSIBILITIES

Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
Allied (Gary Freeman)

LONG SHOTS

Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
The BFG (Rick Carter)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Best Sound Editing

Image Credit: Universal Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Deepwater Horizon

MAJOR THREATS

Deadpool
Sully
Live By Night
Allied
Passengers

POSSIBILITIES

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne [pictured above]
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse
Best Sound Mixing

Image Credit: Courtesy of Walt Disney Pictures

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book [pictured above]
Deepwater Horizon

MAJOR THREATS

Deadpool
Passengers
Sully
Live By Night
Allied

POSSIBILITIES

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Patriots Day
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFG

LONG SHOTS

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse
Best Visual Effects

Image Credit: John Leonhardt/Laika Studios/Focus Features

FRONTRUNNERS

The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

MAJOR THREATS

Passengers
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
Captain America: Civil War
Kubo and the Two Strings [pictured above]
Best Animated Short

Image Credit: Courtesy of Massive Swerve

FRONTRUNNERS

Inner Workings (Disney)
Piper (Pixar)
Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

MAJOR THREATS

Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation) [pictured above]
Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)
Best Documentary Short

Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix

FRONTRUNNERS

The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films) [pictured above]
Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

MAJOR THREATS

Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)