Says Rhodes (left, with Andre Holland) of the intimate reunion scene, “You can lie with your mouth, but not with your eyes.”
David Bornfriend/A24These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Gunther Gampine FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Arrival (Paramount)
Sully (Warner Bros.)MAJOR THREATS
Loving (Focus Features)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Silence (Paramount)POSSIBILITIES
20th Century Women (A24) [pictured above]
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)LONG SHOTS
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate) -
Best Director
Image Credit: Kerry Brown/Paramount Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Garth Davis (Lion)MAJOR THREATS
Martin Scorsese (Silence) [pictured above]
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)POSSIBILITIES
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)LONG SHOTS
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women) -
Best Actor
Image Credit: Claire Folger FRONTRUNNERS
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) [pictured above]
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)MAJOR THREATS
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)POSSIBILITIES
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)LONG SHOTS
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day) -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Fox Searchlight Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie) [pictured above]
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Amy Adams (Arrival)MAJOR THREATS
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)POSSIBILITIES
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)LONG SHOTS
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Lorey Sebastian FRONTRUNNERS
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)POSSIBILITIES
Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)LONG SHOTS
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Twentieth Century Fox Films FRONTRUNNERS
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)MAJOR THREATS
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)LONG SHOTS
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Mark Rogers/Long Way Productions FRONTRUNNERS
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Lion (Luke Davies) [pictured above]
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Fences (August Wilson)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)MAJOR THREATS
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)POSSIBILITIES
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Loving (Jeff Nichols)LONG SHOTS
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman) -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of TIFF FRONTRUNNERS
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)MAJOR THREATS
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)POSSIBILITIES
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade) [pictured above]
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)LONG SHOTS
The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)
Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS) [pictured above]
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)MAJOR THREATS
The Little Prince (Netflix)
Finding Dory (Pixar)
Your Name. (FUNimation)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)POSSIBILITIES
Sing (Illumination/Universal)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)LONG SHOTS
Long Way North (Shout!)
Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS) -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix FRONTRUNNERS
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)MAJOR THREATS
13th (Netflix)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
The Ivory Game (Netflix) [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
The Witness (FilmRise)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Command and Control (PBS) -
Best Foreign Language Film
FRONTRUNNERS
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran) [pictured above]
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Paradise (Russia)MAJOR THREATS
The King's Choice (Norway)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
Tanna (Australia) -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Merrick Morton/Focus Features FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey) [pictured above]
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)MAJOR THREATS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)POSSIBILITIES
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
Sully (Tom Stern)
Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)LONG SHOTS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins) -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Kerry Brown/Paramount Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
Silence (Dante Ferretti) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)POSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Loving (Erin Benach)LONG SHOTS
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus) -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)MAJOR THREATS
Arrival (Joe Walker) [pictured above]
Sully (Blu Murray)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)POSSIBILITIES
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)LONG SHOTS
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
The BFG (Michael Kahn) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Universal Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Star Trek BeyondMAJOR THREATS
Suicide Squad
A Man Called Ove
Hail, Caesar! [pictured above]
The Dressmaker -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sony Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)MAJOR THREATS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
The BFG (John Williams)
Jackie (Micachu)POSSIBILITIES
Passengers (Thomas Newman) [pictured above]
The Jungle Book (John Debney)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)LONG SHOTS
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
Allied (Alan Silvestri) -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Francois Duhamel/Twentieth Century Fox FRONTRUNNERS
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"Audition" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
"Letters to the Free" (13th)MAJOR THREATS
"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) [pictured above]
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
"Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)POSSIBILITIES
"Running" (Hidden Figures)
"Gold" (Gold)
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
"Go Now" (Sing Street)
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
"Start a Fire" (La La Land)
"Heathens" (Suicide Squad)LONG SHOTS
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
"Try Everything" (Zootopia)
"Faith" (Sing)
"Set It Free" (Sing)
"The Veil" (Snowden)
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (David Wasco)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)POSSIBILITIES
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
Allied (Gary Freeman)LONG SHOTS
The BFG (Rick Carter)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas) -
Best Sound Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Karen Ballard FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deepwater Horizon
Patriots Day [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Sully
Allied
The Jungle BookPOSSIBILITIES
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Sound Mixing
Image Credit: Warner Bros. FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deepwater Horizon
Patriots DayMAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Sully [pictured above]
Allied
The Jungle BookPOSSIBILITIES
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm FRONTRUNNERS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemMAJOR THREATS
Passengers
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
Captain America: Civil War
Kubo and the Two Strings -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Google Spotlight Stories FRONTRUNNERS
Inner Workings (Disney)
Piper (Pixar)
Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)MAJOR THREATS
Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures) [pictured above]
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima) -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of ITN Productions FRONTRUNNERS
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)MAJOR THREATS
Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions) [pictured above]
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)
