Feinberg Forecast: The Post-Christmas, Pre-New Year Lay of the Land for Oscars

8:56 AM 12/28/2016

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst shares his latest take on an Oscar race that is about to enter its homestretch: Oscar nomination voting spans Jan. 5-13.

Moonlight  Anatomy - Still - 10 - H - 2016
David Bornfriend/A24

Says Rhodes (left, with Andre Holland) of the intimate reunion scene, “You can lie with your mouth, but not with your eyes.”

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Fences (Paramount)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Sully
    (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Loving (Focus Features)
    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Silence (Paramount)

    POSSIBILITIES

    20th Century Women (A24) [pictured above]
    Captain Fantastic
    (Bleecker Street)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
    Rules Don't Apply
    (Fox)
    Patriots Day
    (CBS Films/Lionsgate)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Garth Davis (Lion)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Martin Scorsese (Silence) [pictured above]
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
    Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

    POSSIBILITIES

    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)
    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
    Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
    Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) [pictured above]
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (Sully)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)

    LONG SHOTS

    Adam Driver (Paterson)
    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie) [pictured above]
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Ruth Negga (Loving)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

    LONG SHOTS

    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Hailee
    Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)

    Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)

    LONG SHOTS

    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

     

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)

    LONG SHOTS

    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Lion (Luke Davies) [pictured above]
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Sully (Todd Komarnicki)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Loving (Jeff Nichols)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

     

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

    MAJOR THREATS

    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
    Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade) [pictured above]
    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)
    Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    Moana (Disney)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS) [pictured above]
    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Little Prince (Netflix)
    Finding Dory
    (Pixar)

    Your Name. (FUNimation
    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)

    LONG SHOTS

    Long Way North (Shout!)
    Miss Hokusai
    (GKIDS)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)

    MAJOR THREATS

    13th (Netflix)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)
    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
    The Ivory Game
    (Netflix) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
    The Eagle Huntress
    (Sony Classics)
    The Witness (FilmRise)
    Zero Days
    (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    The Salesman (Iran) [pictured above]
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Paradise (Russia)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The King's Choice (Norway)
    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
    Tanna (Australia)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey) [pictured above]
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    Sully (Tom Stern)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

  • Best Costume Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Loving (Erin Benach)

    LONG SHOTS

    Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Arrival (Joe Walker) [pictured above]
    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)

    LONG SHOTS

    Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
    The BFG (Michael Kahn)

     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Deadpool
    Star Trek Beyond

    MAJOR THREATS

    Suicide Squad
    A Man Called Ove
    Hail, Caesar!
    [pictured above]
    The Dressmaker

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
    The BFG (John Williams)
    Jackie (Micachu)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Thomas Newman) [pictured above]
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)

    LONG SHOTS

    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
    Allied (Alan Silvestri)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "Audition" (La La Land)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) [pictured above]
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
    "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Running" (Hidden Figures)
    "Gold" (Gold)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)
    "Heathens" (Suicide Squad)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Faith" (Sing)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "The Veil" (Snowden)
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (David Wasco)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Rick Carter)
    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)

  • Best Sound Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Deepwater Horizon
    Patriots Day
    [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Sully
    Allied
    The Jungle Book

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Sound Mixing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Deepwater Horizon
    Patriots Day

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Sully [pictured above]
    Allied
    The Jungle Book

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
    The Jungle Book
    Doctor Strange
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    MAJOR THREATS

    Passengers
    The BFG

    Deepwater Horizon
    Captain America: Civil War
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures) [pictured above]
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions) [pictured above]
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)