Henson and Melfi had wanted to work together on St. Vincent. “Bill Murray’s girlfriend in the original script was African-American,” Melfi says. “For a lot of reasons, that wasn’t allowed.”
Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century FoxThese projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation/Photofest FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Arrival (Paramount)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Fences (Paramount)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)MAJOR THREATS
Deadpool (20th Century Fox) [pictured above]
Silence (Paramount)
Loving (Focus Features)POSSIBILITIES
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)LONG SHOTS
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
20th Century Women (A24)
I, Daniel Blake (Sundance Selects) -
Best Director
Image Credit: Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images FRONTRUNNERS
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival) [pictured above]
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)MAJOR THREATS
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Denzel Washington (Fences)POSSIBILITIES
Martin Scorsese (Silence)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Garth Davis (Lion)LONG SHOTS
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Jeff Nichols (Loving) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) [pictured above]
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)MAJOR THREATS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)POSSIBILITIES
Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)LONG SHOTS
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day) -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)MAJOR THREATS
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Ruth Negga (Loving)LONG SHOTS
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen) -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Paramount Pictures/Photofest FRONTRUNNERS
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) [pictured above]
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)MAJOR THREATS
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)POSSIBILITIES
Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)LONG SHOTS
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival FRONTRUNNERS
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)MAJOR THREATS
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake) [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)LONG SHOTS
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features FRONTRUNNERS
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Lion (Luke Davies)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Fences (August Wilson)MAJOR THREATS
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)POSSIBILITIES
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
Loving (Jeff Nichols) [pictured above]LONG SHOTS
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman) -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of William Gray/Twentieth Century Fox Film FRONTRUNNERS
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)MAJOR THREATS
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)POSSIBILITIES
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim) [pictured above]LONG SHOTS
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS) [pictured above]
Finding Dory (Pixar)MAJOR THREATS
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
The Little Prince (Netflix)
Your Name. (FUNimation)POSSIBILITIES
Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)LONG SHOTS
Sing (Illumination/Universal)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!) -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Kino Lorber FRONTRUNNERS
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)MAJOR THREATS
13th (Netflix)
Tower (Kino Lorber) [pictured above]
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)POSSIBILITIES
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
The Witness (FilmRise)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Command and Control (PBS) -
Best Foreign Language Film
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival FRONTRUNNERS
Toni Erdmann (Germany) [pictured above]
The Salesman (Iran)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)MAJOR THREATS
The King's Choice (Norway)
Paradise (Russia)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
Tanna (Australia) -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Kerry Brown/Paramount Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)MAJOR THREATS
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto) [pictured above]
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)POSSIBILITIES
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)
Sully (Tom Stern)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)LONG SHOTS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins) -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Warner Brothers FRONTRUNNERS
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood) [pictured above]
Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)MAJOR THREATS
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)POSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Loving (Erin Benach)LONG SHOTS
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus) -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
Arrival (Joe Walker)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Nocturnal Animals (Joan Sobel)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
O.J.: Made in America (Bret Granato, Maya Mumma, Ben Sozanski)POSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)
Sully (Blu Murray)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
Deadpool (Julian Clarke)LONG SHOTS
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
Hail, Caesar! (Roderick Jaynes) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Image Credit: Kimberley French/Paramount FRONTRUNNERS
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Star Trek Beyond [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
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Best Original Score
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka) [pictured above]
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)MAJOR THREATS
Jackie (Micachu)
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)POSSIBILITIES
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
The BFG (John Williams)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)LONG SHOTS
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard) -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix FRONTRUNNERS
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"Audition" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
"Letters to the Free" (13th) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"Never Give Up" (Lion)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
"Running" (Hidden Figures)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)POSSIBILITIES
"Faith" (Sing)
"Start a Fire" (La La Land)
"Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
"Gold" (Gold)
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
"Go Now" (Sing Street)
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
"Heathens" (Suicide Squad)LONG SHOTS
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
"Try Everything" (Zootopia)
"Set It Free" (Sing)
"The Veil" (Snowden)
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Marvel FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Nocturnal Animals (Shane Valentino, Meg Everist)
Doctor Strange (John Bush, Charles Wood) [pictured above]
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)MAJOR THREATS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)POSSIBILITIES
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)LONG SHOTS
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
Allied (Gary Freeman)
The BFG (Rick Carter) -
Best Sound Editing
Image Credit: David Lee/Summit Entertainment FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Deepwater Horizon [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Patriots Day
Sully
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of BenghaziPOSSIBILITIES
Zootopia
The Jungle Book
Hell or High Water
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Allied
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Sound Mixing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Disney FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Deepwater HorizonMAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Patriots Day
Sully
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of BenghaziPOSSIBILITIES
Zootopia [pictured above]
The Jungle Book
Hell or High Water
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Allied
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Screengrab/Star Wars FRONTRUNNERS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemMAJOR THREATS
Passengers
The BFG
Deepwater Horizon
Captain America: Civil War
Kubo and the Two Strings -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Studio Famu FRONTRUNNERS
Inner Workings (Disney)
Piper (Pixar)
Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima) -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival FRONTRUNNERS
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)MAJOR THREATS
Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films) [pictured above]
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)
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