Feinberg Forecast: Checking In Amid Oscar Nominations Voting

12:45 PM 1/10/2017

by Scott Feinberg

The AFI honored its top 10 films, the Golden Globes were handed out and the WGA, BAFTA and the PGA all released their nominations, so THR's awards columnist has adjusted his charts accordingly.

Hidden Figures BTS_1_embed - Publicity - H 2017
Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox

Henson and Melfi had wanted to work together on St. Vincent. “Bill Murray’s girlfriend in the original script was African-American,” Melfi says. “For a lot of reasons, that wasn’t allowed.”

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Fences (Paramount)
    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool (20th Century Fox) [pictured above]
    Silence (Paramount)
    Loving (Focus Features)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sully (Warner Bros.)
    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
    20th Century Women (A24)
    I, Daniel Blake (Sundance Selects)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival) [pictured above]
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Garth Davis (Lion)

    LONG SHOTS

    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land) [pictured above]
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
    Tom Hanks (Sully)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Adam Driver (Paterson)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)

    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
    Ruth Negga (Loving)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Hailee
    Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) [pictured above]
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)

    LONG SHOTS

    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    Fences (August Wilson)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
    Loving (Jeff Nichols) [pictured above]

    LONG SHOTS

    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

     

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)
    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
    20th Century Women
    (Mike Mills)

    POSSIBILITIES

    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
    Jackie
     (Noah Oppenheim) [pictured above]

    LONG SHOTS

    Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    Moana (Disney)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS) [pictured above]
    Finding Dory (Pixar)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
    April and the Extraordinary World
    (GKIDS)
    The Little Prince
    (Netflix)
    Your Name. (FUNimation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
    Sausage Party
    (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets
    (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North
    (Shout!)

     
  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)

    MAJOR THREATS

    13th (Netflix)
    Tower (Kino Lorber) [pictured above]
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    The Ivory Game
    (Netflix)
    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
    The Eagle Huntress
    (Sony Classics)
    The Witness (FilmRise)
    Zero Days
    (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toni Erdmann (Germany) [pictured above]
    The Salesman (Iran)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The King's Choice (Norway)
    Paradise (Russia)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

    Tanna (Australia)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    (Grieg Fraser)
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto) [pictured above]
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)
    Sully (Tom Stern)
    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

  • Best Costume Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood) [pictured above]
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Loving (Erin Benach)

    LONG SHOTS

    Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Joan Sobel)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
    O.J.: Made in America
    (Bret Granato, Maya Mumma, Ben Sozanski)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)
    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
    Deadpool (Julian Clarke)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
    Live By Night
    (William Goldenberg)
    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roderick Jaynes)

     
     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Deadpool
    Star Trek Beyond [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Suicide Squad
    A Man Called Ove
    Hail, Caesar!

    The Dressmaker

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka) [pictured above]
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jackie (Micachu)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    The BFG (John Williams)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "Audition" (La La Land)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "Never Give Up" (Lion)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "Running" (Hidden Figures)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Faith" (Sing)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)
    "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
    "Gold" (Gold)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Heathens" (Suicide Squad)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "The Veil" (Snowden)
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Nocturnal Animals (Shane Valentino, Meg Everist)
    Doctor Strange (John Bush, Charles Wood) [pictured above]
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
    Hacksaw Ridge
    (Barry Robison)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
    Passengers
    (Guy Hendrix Dyas)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)
    The BFG
    (Rick Carter)

  • Best Sound Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Deepwater Horizon
    [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Patriots Day

    Sully
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Zootopia
    The Jungle Book

    Hell or High Water
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Allied
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Sound Mixing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Patriots Day

    Sully
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Zootopia [pictured above]
    The Jungle Book

    Hell or High Water
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Allied
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
    The Jungle Book

    Doctor Strange
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    MAJOR THREATS

    Passengers
    The BFG

    Deepwater Horizon
    Captain America: Civil War
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films) [pictured above]
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)