These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of ESPN FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Arrival (Paramount)
Deadpool (20th Century Fox)
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN Films) NEW [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Fences (Paramount)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
I, Daniel Blake (Sundance Selects)POSSIBILITIES
Silence (Paramount)
Loving (Focus Features)
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics) NEWLONG SHOTS
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
20th Century Women (A24) -
Best Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Komplizen Film/Sony Pictures Classics FRONTRUNNERS
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)MAJOR THREATS
Garth Davis (Lion)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Denzel Washington (Fences)POSSIBILITIES
Martin Scorsese (Silence)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Ezra Edelman (O.J.: Made in America) NEW
Maren Ade (Toni Erdmann) NEWLONG SHOTS
Tim Miller (Deadpool) NEW [pictured above]
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)MAJOR THREATS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
Sunny Pawar (Lion)
Tom Hanks (Sully)POSSIBILITIES
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Michael Keaton (The Founder) [pictured above]
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)LONG SHOTS
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Andrew Garfield (Silence) -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox FRONTRUNNERS
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)MAJOR THREATS
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)POSSIBILITIES
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)LONG SHOTS
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen) -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Claire Folger/Roadside Attractions FRONTRUNNERS
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) [pictured above]
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)MAJOR THREATS
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)POSSIBILITIES
Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)LONG SHOTS
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: David Lee/Paramount Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Viola Davis (Fences) [pictured above]
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)MAJOR THREATS
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake)POSSIBILITIES
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)LONG SHOTS
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Warner Bros. FRONTRUNNERS
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Lion (Luke Davies)
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)MAJOR THREATS
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Fences (August Wilson)POSSIBILITIES
Sully (Todd Komarnicki) [pictured above]
Loving (Jeff Nichols)LONG SHOTS
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman) -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Erik Simkins/Bleeker Street FRONTRUNNERS
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross) [pictured above]
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)MAJOR THREATS
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)POSSIBILITIES
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)LONG SHOTS
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch) -
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Illumination Entertainment and Universal Pictures FRONTRUNNERS
Zootopia (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Moana (Disney)
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
Finding Dory (Pixar)MAJOR THREATS
Sing (Illumination/Universal) [pictured above]
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
The Little Prince (Netflix)
Your Name. (FUNimation)POSSIBILITIES
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)LONG SHOTS
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!) -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of BFI/AP Photo/Jonathan Bachman FRONTRUNNERS
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)MAJOR THREATS
13th (Netflix)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road) [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
The Witness (FilmRise)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Command and Control (PBS) -
Best Foreign Language Film
Image Credit: Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival FRONTRUNNERS
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)MAJOR THREATS
The King's Choice (Norway)
Paradise (Russia)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada) [pictured above]
Tanna (Australia) -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Merrick Morton/Focus Features FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)POSSIBILITIES
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)
Sully (Tom Stern)
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)LONG SHOTS
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins) -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: John Leonhardt/Laika Studios/Focus Features FRONTRUNNERS
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)MAJOR THREATS
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Deborah Cook) NEW [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Loving (Erin Benach)LONG SHOTS
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus) -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of David Bornfriend/A24 FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders) [pictured above]
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
Arrival (Joe Walker)
O.J.: Made in America (Bret Granato, Maya Mumma, Ben Sozanski)MAJOR THREATS
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Nocturnal Animals (Joan Sobel)
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)POSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)
Sully (Blu Murray)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
Deadpool (Julian Clarke)LONG SHOTS
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
Hail, Caesar! (Roderick Jaynes) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Alison Rosa/Universal Studios FRONTRUNNERS
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Star Trek BeyondMAJOR THREATS
Suicide Squad
A Man Called Ove
Hail, Caesar! [pictured above]
The Dressmaker -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Lionsgate FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz) [pictured above]
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)MAJOR THREATS
Jackie (Micachu)
Hidden Figures (Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)POSSIBILITIES
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
The BFG (John Williams)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)LONG SHOTS
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard) -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy of DreamWorks Animation FRONTRUNNERS
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Audition" (La La Land)
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
"Letters to the Free" (13th)
"Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
"Never Give Up" (Lion)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
"Running" (Hidden Figures)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)POSSIBILITIES
"Faith" (Sing)
"Start a Fire" (La La Land)
"Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
"Gold" (Gold)
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
"Go Now" (Sing Street)
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
"Heathens" (Suicide Squad)LONG SHOTS
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
"Try Everything" (Zootopia)
"Set It Free" (Sing)
"The Veil" (Snowden)
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of CJ Entertainment FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Nocturnal Animals (Shane Valentino, Meg Everist)
Doctor Strange (John Bush, Charles Wood)
The Handmaiden (Seong-hie Ryu)MAJOR THREATS
Arrival (Patrice Vermette) [pictured above]
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)POSSIBILITIES
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)LONG SHOTS
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
Allied (Gary Freeman)
The BFG (Rick Carter) -
Best Sound Editing
Image Credit: Lorey Sebastian FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Deepwater HorizonMAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Patriots Day
Sully
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of BenghaziPOSSIBILITIES
Zootopia
The Jungle Book
Hell or High Water [pictured above]
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Allied
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Sound Mixing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Deepwater HorizonMAJOR THREATS
Deadpool
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Patriots Day
Sully
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi [pictured above]POSSIBILITIES
Zootopia
The Jungle Book
Hell or High Water
PassengersLONG SHOTS
Allied
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of Storyteller Distributuion Co. FRONTRUNNERS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemMAJOR THREATS
Passengers
The BFG [pictured above]
Deepwater Horizon
Captain America: Civil War
Kubo and the Two Strings -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Vivement Lundi ! FRONTRUNNERS
Inner Workings (Disney)
Piper (Pixar)
Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)MAJOR THREATS
Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima) [pictured above] -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Studio Munka FRONTRUNNERS
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)
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