Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Standings During a Week of Purgatory

6:30 AM 1/17/2017

by Scott Feinberg

Oscar nomination voting ended Friday, but the noms won't be revealed until Jan. 24. In the meantime, THR's awards analyst offers his best guess of where things stand, factoring in the BAFTA, Directors Guild, Costume Designers Guild, Makeup and Hair Stylists Guild and American Society of Cinematographers noms, the LA Film Critics Association awards ceremony and the Palm Springs Film Fest.

Lion Still 6 - Publicity - H 2016
Courtesy of The Weinstein Company

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Click here to sign up to receive email alerts whenever a new Feinberg Forecast posts!

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Deadpool (20th Century Fox)
    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN Films) NEW [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Fences (Paramount)
    Nocturnal Animals
    (Focus Features)
    Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
    I, Daniel Blake (Sundance Selects)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Silence (Paramount)
    Loving (Focus Features)
    Sully
    (Warner Bros.)
    Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    (Paramount)
    20th Century Women (A24)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Garth Davis (Lion)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Ezra Edelman (O.J.: Made in America) NEW
    Maren Ade (Toni Erdmann) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Tim Miller (Deadpool) NEW [pictured above]
    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
    Sunny Pawar (Lion)
    Tom Hanks (Sully)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder) [pictured above]
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Adam Driver (Paterson)
    Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
    Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ruth Negga (Loving)
    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

    LONG SHOTS

    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) [pictured above]
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    LONG SHOTS

    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences) [pictured above]
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)

    LONG SHOTS

    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Fences
    (August Wilson)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sully (Todd Komarnicki) [pictured above]
    Loving (Jeff Nichols)

    LONG SHOTS

    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross) [pictured above]
    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)

    MAJOR THREATS

    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
    Zootopia
    (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)

    POSSIBILITIES

    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Jackie
     (Noah Oppenheim)

    LONG SHOTS

    Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    Moana (Disney)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
    Finding Dory (Pixar)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sing (Illumination/Universal) [pictured above]
    The Red Turtle
    (Sony Classics)
    The Little Prince
    (Netflix)
    Your Name. (FUNimation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
    Miss Hokusai
    (GKIDS)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    LONG SHOTS

    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets
    (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North
    (Shout!)

     
  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)

    MAJOR THREATS

    13th (Netflix)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    The Ivory Game
    (Netflix)
    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
    The Eagle Huntress
    (Sony Classics)
    The Witness (FilmRise)
    Zero Days
    (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    The Salesman (Iran)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The King's Choice (Norway)
    Paradise (Russia)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada) [pictured above]

    Tanna (Australia)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes)
    Sully (Tom Stern)
    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

  • Best Costume Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    Jackie
    (Madeline Fontaine)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Deborah Cook) NEW [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Loving (Erin Benach)

    LONG SHOTS

    Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders) [pictured above]
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    O.J.: Made in America (Bret Granato, Maya Mumma, Ben Sozanski)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
    Nocturnal Animals
    (Joan Sobel)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)
    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
    Deadpool (Julian Clarke)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
    Live By Night
    (William Goldenberg)
    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roderick Jaynes)

     
     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Deadpool
    Star Trek Beyond

    MAJOR THREATS

    Suicide Squad
    A Man Called Ove
    Hail, Caesar!
    [pictured above]
    The Dressmaker

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz) [pictured above]
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jackie (Micachu)
    Hidden Figures (Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    The BFG (John Williams)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)

    LONG SHOTS

    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
    "Audition" (La La Land)
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th)
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "Never Give Up" (Lion)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)

    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "Running" (Hidden Figures)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Faith" (Sing)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)
    "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
    "Gold" (Gold)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Heathens" (Suicide Squad)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "The Veil" (Snowden)
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Nocturnal Animals (Shane Valentino, Meg Everist)
    Doctor Strange (John Bush, Charles Wood)
    The Handmaiden (Seong-hie Ryu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Arrival (Patrice Vermette) [pictured above]
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
    Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)
    Hacksaw Ridge
    (Barry Robison)
    Passengers
    (Guy Hendrix Dyas)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)
    The BFG
    (Rick Carter)

  • Best Sound Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Patriots Day

    Sully
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Zootopia
    The Jungle Book

    Hell or High Water [pictured above]
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Allied
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Sound Mixing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Patriots Day

    Sully
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Zootopia
    The Jungle Book

    Hell or High Water
    Passengers

    LONG SHOTS

    Allied
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    The Jungle Book

    Doctor Strange
    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    MAJOR THREATS

    Passengers
    The BFG
    [pictured above]
    Deepwater Horizon
    Captain America: Civil War
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima) [pictured above]

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)