Oscars: How the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Other Noms Are Narrowing Down the Odds

1:30 PM 12/22/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst looks at the state of the race after the nominations have been revealed for the American Cinema Editors Awards, Art Directors Guild Awards, Cinema Audio Society Awards and Costume Designers Guild Awards.

From left: 'Little Women,' 'Jojo Rabbit,' 'The Farewell'
From left: 'Little Women,' 'Jojo Rabbit,' 'The Farewell'
Wilson Webb/Sony Pictures; Kimberley French/Twentieth Century Fox; Casi Moss/A24
  • Best Picture

    'Joker'
    'Joker'
    Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros.

    Richard Jewell

    Clint Eastwood's biopic about the security guard whose life was upended by the 1996 Summer Olympics bombing in Atlanta registered an A CinemaScore but, well, bombed at the box office, grossing $5 million, less than half of its projected haul, making it one of the 50 worst wide openings ever and Eastwood's second-worst opening ever.

    1917

    Sam Mendes' World War I flick was shut out of the SAG Awards noms and missed a CAS nom but, ahead of its Hollywood premiere Wednesday, was toasted at receptions hosted by Sarah Jessica Parker in New York on Dec. 15 and by Steven Spielberg in Los Angeles on Tuesday. It also got an ADG nom.

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Quentin Tarantino's ninth feature, one of the year's few critical and commercial hits, continues to resonate with the guilds, landing top noms from ACE, ADG, CAS and CDG over the past week alone, on the heels of its SAG Awards ensemble nom.

    Little Women

    Following a lackluster showing with the Globe and SAG Awards nominations, the team went into strong promo mode, with producer Amy Pascal and supporting actress Laura Dern attending a CAA screening and reception on Dec. 12, while supporting actress Meryl Streep and Dern attended another on Dec. 15.

    Jojo Rabbit

    Taika Waititi's controversial Holocaust dramedy — in which he stars as a boy's imaginary friend, Hitler — landed a huge endorsement when Mel Brooks, who has experience with the genre (1968's The Producers), told USA Today, "I loved it. It was a wonderful movie." It also recently picked up ACE, ADG and CDG noms.

    Joker

    Todd Phillips' divisive comic book adaptation is quietly amassing a host of important awards season laurels, and not just for star Joaquin Phoenix. After being included on the AFI's top 10 list and snagging a Globe nomination for Phillips, it landed ACE, ADG and CAS noms.

  • Best Sound Mixing

    'Apollo 11'

    Courtesy of Neon

    Doc features don't often get traction in Oscar categories beyond best doc feature, but this amazing assemblage of newfound footage and audio may contend for editing and, following a best doc CAS nom, here, too. (1970's Woodstock is the only doc that has cracked the category.)

  • Best Director

    Terry Gilliam, 'The Man Who Killed Don Quixote'

    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    The sole American-born member of Monty Python, who resides in the U.K., flew across the pond to make the rounds in Hollywood on behalf of his latest pic, which stars Adam Driver and Jonathan Pryce and was itself the result of a quixotic 25-year quest.

  • Best Actor

    Christian Bale, 'Ford v Ferrari'

    Getty

    The respected actors' actor reportedly hates awards campaigning but, after receiving Globe and SAG Awards noms, joined James Mangold, Matt Damon and all of his film's other key players Tuesday at a Ross House screening and reception thrown by Fox.

  • Best Actress

    Kristen Stewart ('Seberg') and Awkwafina ('The Farewell')

    Kristen Stewart in 'Seberg'
    Kristen Stewart in 'Seberg'
    Courtesy of Amazon Studios

    Stewart

    The 29-year-old's already long-shot prospects for her portrayal of actress Jean Seberg were not helped by a shipping house blunder: Academy and BAFTA voters received screeners that were labeled Seberg but played The Report. Replacements are in the mail.

    Awkwafina

    It certainly won't hurt this popular Critics' Choice and Globe nominee that her new film Jumanji: The Next Level easily won its opening weekend at the box office. The Farewell's writer-director Lulu Wang, meanwhile, announced an upcoming TV collaboration with Nicole Kidman.

  • Best Film Editing

    'Parasite'

    Courtesy of Neon and CJ Entertainment

    Bong Joon Ho's breakout hit became only the fourth non-English-language film (after Tokyo Olympiad, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Roma) to land a best edited feature film (dramatic) ACE nom. The film also bagged an ADG nom.

    This story first appeared in a December stand-alone issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. To receive the magazine, click here to subscribe.