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When I published part one of my seventh annual mathematical Oscar predictions, I imagine I disappointed some Dunkirk fans when my statistical model placed Christopher Nolan’s film in fourth place in the best picture race. But for those of you who made it all the way through part two of the predictions, and on to this third and final part, your patience is finally rewarded. Dunkirk is predicted to win three of these final six awards.
But none of those wins will come easy. Only one is above a 50 percent chance to occur, and across all six of these categories, only two reach that 50 percent threshold. So while some more casual Oscar fans might use the craft categories to look away from the screen for a moment, the true fans know that these categories often provide some of the most exciting races, which is as true as ever this year.
The first part of my Oscar predictions, covering the top categories, can be found here. The second part, predicting documentary, animation and foreign-language feature, among other categories, is here.
Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) uses math to predict and write about the Oscars for The Hollywood Reporter. He recently graduated from Harvard with a degree in applied math, and he now works as a baseball analyst for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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