Feinberg Forecast: Updated Standings Post Golden Globe Noms, AFI Awards

10:49 PM 12/7/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist assesses 13 categories.

Clay Enos/Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc

“We started with Jim Morrison but realized quickly we’d need to tone it down,” says Benach of Bradley Cooper’s Western-style shirts, pants and belts, which she made herself. 

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture


    A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    Black Panther (Disney)
    The Favourite
    (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Vice (Annapurna)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF


    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    Eighth Grade
    (A24) SUND, SXSW
    First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW


    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
    (Fox) TIFF, LOND
    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)


    The Mule (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Director


    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)


    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)


    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Steve McQueen (Widows) — podcast
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

  • Best Actor


    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast


    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)


    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) — podcast
    Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
    Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)
    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) — podcast

    STILL TO COME (alphabetical)

    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

  • Best Actress


    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast


    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
    Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)
    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)


    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
    Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

  • Best Supporting Actor


    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)


    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)


    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) — podcast
    Steve Carell (Vice) — podcast
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  • Best Supporting Actress


    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast


    Marina de Tavira (Roma)
    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Linda Cardellini (Green Book)


    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
    Kayli Carter (Private Life)
    Blythe Danner (What They Had)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay


    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
    Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)


    First Man (Josh Singer)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
    Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
    Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
    The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, David Schneider)
    Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)


    Beautiful Boy (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
    The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
    Love, Simon
    (Elizabeth Berger, Isaac Aptaker)
    Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
    Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
    The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman)

  • Best Original Screenplay


    The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
    Vice (Adam McKay)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
    Eighth Grade
    (Bo Burnham)


    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
    Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)

    Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
    Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)


    Ben Is Back (Peter Hedges)
    (Ari Aster)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
    A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
    Mid90s (Jonah Hill)

  • Best Animated Feature


    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Mirai (GKIDS)


    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Lu Over the Wall
    Ruben Brandt, Collector
    (Sony Classics)
    Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory)
    The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Fireworks (GKIDS)


    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing)
    Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts)
    Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts)
    Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
    On Happiness Road
    Ana y Bruno
    The Laws of the Universe – Part I
    Tall Tales (Viva Kids)

  • Best Documentary Feature


    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
    Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
    Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
    The Sentence (HBO) SUND
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND
    Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW

    OTHER TOP CONTENDERS (alphabetical)

    93Queen (Abramorama)
    306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND
    Always at the Carlyle
    (Good Deed)
    Amazing Grace AFIF
    American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist) CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
    BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND
    The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
    Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Call Her Ganda (Breaking Glass Pictures) TRIB
    Charm City (PBS) TRIB
    Chef Flynn
    (Kino Lorber) SUND
    The Dawn Wall SXSW
    Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
    Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
    Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
    Fail State
    Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
    Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
    Ghost Fleet TELL
    The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
    Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
    The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL

    Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
    The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
    Hillbilly (The Orchard)
    In Search of Greatness (AOS)
    Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
    Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
    John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
    The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
    The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
    King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
    Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND
    Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
    Liyana (Abramorama)
    Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
    Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
    Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
    McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
    Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Of Fathers and Sons (Kino Lorber) SUND NEW
    The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
    The Other Side of Everything (Icarus) TIFF ['17]
    The Panama Papers
    People's Republic of Desire SXSW
    Pick of the Litter (Sundance Selects)
    Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
    The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
    The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
    Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
    Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
    Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
    Saving Brinton
    Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
    Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
    Screwball TIFF
    The Silence of Others BERL
    They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
    United Skates (HBO) TRIB
    What Haunts Us
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
    Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
    Yellow Is Forbidden TRIB NEW

  • Best Foreign Language Film


    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
    Never Look Away
    [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
    Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND
    Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF


    10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen]
    And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
    Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
    The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
    Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
    Burnout [Morocco]
    Cake [Pakistan]
    The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
    Champions [Spain]
    Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
    Crystal Swan [Belarus]
    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
    Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
    Eternity [Peru]
    Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
    The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
    The Family [Venezuela]
    Family First [Canada]
    Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
    Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
    The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
    The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
    Gutland [Luxembourg]
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
    Hidden Man [China] TIFF
    I Am Not a Witch
    [United Kingdom]
    I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
    The Interpreter [Slovakia]
    Iskra [Montenegro]
    Ivan [Slovenia]
    Jirga [Australia] TIFF
    The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
    Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
    Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Marriage [Kosovo]
    Medea [Costa Rica]
    Memoir of War [France]
    Muralla [Bolivia]
    Namme [Georgia]
    Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
    No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
    No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
    Offenders [Serbia]
    Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
    Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
    Panchayat [Nepal]
    Pilgrimage [Portugal]
    Polyxeni [Greece]
    The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
    The Road to Sunrise [Malawi]
    Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan]
    Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
    Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
    Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
    Signal Rock [Philippines]
    Sobibor [Russia] CANN
    A Son of Man [Ecuador]
    Spitak [Armenia]
    Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
    Supa Modo
    [Kenya] BERL
    The Tailor [Vietnam]
    Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
    To Be Continued [Latvia]
    A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
    Until the End of Time [Algeria]
    Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
    The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
    The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
    What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
    Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
    Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
    Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
    Yellow is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB
    Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN

  • Best Cinematography


    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Cold War
    (Lukasz Zal)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
    Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
    The Rider (Joshua James Richards)


    First Man (Linus Sandgren)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Dion Beebe)
    The Favourite
    (Robbie Ryan)
    Green Book (Sean Porter)
    At Eternity's Gate (Benoît Delhomme)
    22 July (Pål Ulvik Rokseth)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Bruno Delbonnel)


    Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
    Widows (Sean Bobbitt)
    A Private War (Robert Richardson)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    Hereditary (Pawel Pogorzelski)
    Vice (Greig Fraser)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    A Quiet Place (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)

  • Best Original Song


    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)
    Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave and SZA)
    Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

    "I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
    Performed by Jennifer Hudson

    "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
    Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast

    "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda


    "Requiem for a Private War" (A Private War, written by Annie Lennox)
    Performed by Annie Lennox NEW

    "Here Comes the Change" (On the Basis of Sex, written by Drew Pearson, Kesha Sebert and Stephen Wrabel)
    Performed by Kesha

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt

    “We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give, written by Jessica Karpov, Arlissa Ruppert, Kevin White and Mike Woods)
    Performed by Arlissa Ruppert

    "Revelation" (Boy Erased, written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin and Troye Sivan)
    Performed by Jonsi and Troye Sivan

    "Gravity" (Free Solo, written by Lori McKenna and Tim McGraw)
    Performed by Tim McGraw

    "Living in the Moment" (Book Club, written by Walter Afanasieff, Jay Landers and Carole Bayer Sager)
    Performed by Katharine McPhee

    "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy, written by Quincy Jones, Mark Ronson and Yebba Smith)
    Performed by Chaka Khan and Mark Ronson

    "These Are the Words" (Pope Francis: A Man of His Word, written by Patti Smith and Tony Shanahan)
    Performed by Patti Smith

    "Stronger Than I Ever Was" (Sherlock Gnomes, written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin)
    Performed by Mary J. Blige

    "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
    Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley

    "Sunflower" (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, written by Swae Lee and Post Malone)
    Performed by Swae Lee and Post Malone


    "I'll Never Love Again" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Aaron Raitiere)
    Performed by Lady Gaga

    "Always Remember Us This Way" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Lori McKenna)
    Performed by Lady Gaga

    "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
    Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson

    "The Big Unknown" (Widows, written by Sade Adu)
    Performed by Sade Adu

    "Zero" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Imagine Dragons)
    Performed by Imagine Dragons

    "Alfie's Song" (Love, Simon, written by Jack Antonoff, Ilsey Juber and Harry Styles)
    Performed by Bleachers

    "Changes" (Mowgli: Legend of the Jungle, written by Nitin Sawhney)
    Performed by Kara Marni

    "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall and Alan Menken)
    Performed by Gal Gadot and Sarah Silverman

    "Suspirium" (Suspiria, written by Thom Yorke)
    Performed by Thom Yorke

    "Moon Boat" (Leave No Trace, written by Bryan Norcunas, Alex Peffer and Kendra Smith)
    Performed by Kendra Smith and The Magician's Orchestra

    "Are You There?" (What They Had, written by Aoife O'Donovan)
    Performed by Aoife O'Donovan

    "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy, written by Sampha)
    Performed by Sampha

    "I Promise You" (Peter Rabbit, written by Ezra Koenig)
    Performed by James Corden

    "Home Free" (Little Pink House, written by David Crosby and James Raymond)
    Performed by David Crosby