Feinberg Forecast: The New Landscape Post Globes, Critics' Choice and SAG Awards Noms

5:37 PM 12/14/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessment of 13 key categories.

BlacKkKlansman Still 1 - Publicity - H 2018
Courtesy of Focus Features

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    Black Panther (Disney)
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Vice (Annapurna)
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW

    MAJOR THREATS

    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
    Eighth Grade
    (A24) SUND, SXSW
    First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
    The Mule
    (Warner Bros.)
    Boy Erased (Focus Features) TELL, TIFF

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
    Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Steve McQueen (Widows) — podcast
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) — podcast
    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
    Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
    Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
    Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
    Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
    Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) — podcast
    Steve Carell (Vice) — podcast
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
    Marina de Tavira (Roma)
    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Natalie Portman (
    Vox Lux) — podcast

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
    Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Linda Cardellini (Green Book)
    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
    Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)
    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)

    MAJOR THREATS

    First Man (Josh Singer)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
    Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
    The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, David Schneider)
    Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
    Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
    Beautiful Boy
    (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
    The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
    Love, Simon
    (Elizabeth Berger, Isaac Aptaker)
    Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
    The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
    Vice (Adam McKay)
    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Eighth Grade
    (Bo Burnham)

    MAJOR THREATS

    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
    A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
    Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)

    Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
    Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
    Ben Is Back
    (Peter Hedges)
    Hereditary
    (Ari Aster)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
    Mid90s (Jonah Hill)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Mirai (GKIDS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
    (Universal/Illumination)
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Lu Over the Wall
    (GKIDS)
    Ruben Brandt, Collector
    (Sony Classics)
    Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory)
    The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Fireworks (GKIDS)
    MFKZ (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing)
    Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts)
    Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts)
    Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
    On Happiness Road
    Ana y Bruno
    The Laws of the Universe – Part I
    Tall Tales (Viva Kids)

     
  • Best Documentary Feature

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
    Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
    Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
    The Sentence (HBO) SUND
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND
    Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW

    OTHER TOP CONTENDERS (alphabetical)

    93Queen (Abramorama)
    306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND
    Always at the Carlyle
    (Good Deed)
    Amazing Grace AFIF
    American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist) CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
    Believer
    (HBO)
    BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND
    The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
    Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
    Call Her Ganda (Breaking Glass Pictures) TRIB
    Charm City (PBS) TRIB
    Chef Flynn
    (Kino Lorber) SUND
    Communion
    The Dawn Wall SXSW
    Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
    Drug$
    Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
    Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
    Fail State
    Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
    Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
    Ghost Fleet TELL
    The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
    Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
    Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
    The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL

    Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
    The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
    Hillbilly (The Orchard)
    In Search of Greatness (AOS)
    Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
    Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
    Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
    John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
    The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
    The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
    King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
    Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND
    Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
    Liyana (Abramorama)
    Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
    Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
    Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
    McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
    Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
    Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
    Of Fathers and Sons (Kino Lorber) SUND NEW
    The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
    The Other Side of Everything (Icarus) TIFF ['17]
    The Panama Papers
    People's Republic of Desire SXSW
    Pick of the Litter (Sundance Selects)
    Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
    The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
    The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
    Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
    Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
    Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
    Saving Brinton
    Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
    Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
    Screwball TIFF
    The Silence of Others BERL
    They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
    United Skates (HBO) TRIB
    What Haunts Us
    What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
    TELL
    Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
    Yellow Is Forbidden TRIB

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
    Never Look Away
    [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
    Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
    The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND

    OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

    10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen]
    And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
    Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
    The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
    Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
    Burnout [Morocco]
    Cake [Pakistan]
    The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
    Champions [Spain]
    Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
    Crystal Swan [Belarus]
    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
    Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
    Eternity [Peru]
    Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
    The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
    The Family [Venezuela]
    Family First [Canada]
    Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
    Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
    The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
    The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
    Gutland [Luxembourg]
    The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
    Hidden Man [China] TIFF
    I Am Not a Witch
    [United Kingdom]
    I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
    The Interpreter [Slovakia]
    Iskra [Montenegro]
    Ivan [Slovenia]
    Jirga [Australia] TIFF
    The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
    Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
    Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Marriage [Kosovo]
    Medea [Costa Rica]
    Memoir of War [France]
    Muralla [Bolivia]
    Namme [Georgia]
    Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
    No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
    No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
    Offenders [Serbia]
    Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
    Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
    Panchayat [Nepal]
    Pilgrimage [Portugal]
    Polyxeni [Greece]
    The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
    The Road to Sunrise [Malawi]
    Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan]
    Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
    Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
    Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
    Signal Rock [Philippines]
    Sobibor [Russia] CANN
    A Son of Man [Ecuador]
    Spitak [Armenia]
    Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
    Supa Modo
    [Kenya] BERL
    The Tailor [Vietnam]
    Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
    To Be Continued [Latvia]
    A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
    Until the End of Time [Algeria]
    Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
    The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
    The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
    What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
    The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
    Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
    Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
    Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
    Yellow is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB
    Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
    Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
    Cold War
    (Lukasz Zal)
    First Man (Linus Sandgren)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
    The Rider (Joshua James Richards)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Dion Beebe)
    Green Book (Sean Porter)
    At Eternity's Gate (Benoît Delhomme)
    22 July (Pål Ulvik Rokseth)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Bruno Delbonnel)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
    A Private War (Robert Richardson)
    Widows (Sean Bobbitt)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    Hereditary (Pawel Pogorzelski)
    Vice (Greig Fraser)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    A Quiet Place (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)
    Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave and SZA)
    Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

    "I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
    Performed by Jennifer Hudson

    "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
    Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast

    "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt

    "Requiem for a Private War" (A Private War, written by Annie Lennox)
    Performed by Annie Lennox

    "Revelation" (Boy Erased, written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin and Troye Sivan)
    Performed by Jonsi and Troye Sivan

    "Here Comes the Change" (On the Basis of Sex, written by Drew Pearson, Kesha Sebert and Stephen Wrabel)
    Performed by Kesha

    “We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give, written by Jessica Karpov, Arlissa Ruppert, Kevin White and Mike Woods)
    Performed by Arlissa Ruppert

    "Gravity" (Free Solo, written by Lori McKenna and Tim McGraw)
    Performed by Tim McGraw

    "Living in the Moment" (Book Club, written by Walter Afanasieff, Jay Landers and Carole Bayer Sager)
    Performed by Katharine McPhee

    "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy, written by Quincy Jones, Mark Ronson and Yebba Smith)
    Performed by Chaka Khan and Mark Ronson

    "These Are the Words" (Pope Francis: A Man of His Word, written by Patti Smith and Tony Shanahan)
    Performed by Patti Smith

    "Stronger Than I Ever Was" (Sherlock Gnomes, written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin)
    Performed by Mary J. Blige

    "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
    Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley

    "Sunflower" (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, written by Swae Lee and Post Malone)
    Performed by Swae Lee and Post Malone

    POSSIBILITIES

    "I'll Never Love Again" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Aaron Raitiere)
    Performed by Lady Gaga

    "Always Remember Us This Way" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Lori McKenna)
    Performed by Lady Gaga

    "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
    Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson

    "The Big Unknown" (Widows, written by Sade Adu)
    Performed by Sade Adu

    "Zero" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Imagine Dragons)
    Performed by Imagine Dragons

    "Alfie's Song" (Love, Simon, written by Jack Antonoff, Ilsey Juber and Harry Styles)
    Performed by Bleachers

    "Changes" (Mowgli: Legend of the Jungle, written by Nitin Sawhney)
    Performed by Kara Marni

    "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall and Alan Menken)
    Performed by Gal Gadot and Sarah Silverman

    "Suspirium" (Suspiria, written by Thom Yorke)
    Performed by Thom Yorke

    "Moon Boat" (Leave No Trace, written by Bryan Norcunas, Alex Peffer and Kendra Smith)
    Performed by Kendra Smith and The Magician's Orchestra

    "Are You There?" (What They Had, written by Aoife O'Donovan)
    Performed by Aoife O'Donovan

    "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy, written by Sampha)
    Performed by Sampha

    "I Promise You" (Peter Rabbit, written by Ezra Koenig)
    Performed by James Corden

    "Home Free" (Little Pink House, written by David Crosby and James Raymond)
    Performed by David Crosby