Feinberg Forecast: The New Landscape Post Globes, Critics' Choice and SAG Awards Noms
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessment of 13 key categories.
These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
GLOSSARY The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
Black Panther (Disney)
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Vice (Annapurna)
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSWMAJOR THREATS
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)POSSIBILITIES
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
The Mule (Warner Bros.)
Boy Erased (Focus Features) TELL, TIFF -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)MAJOR THREATS
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)POSSIBILITIES
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Steve McQueen (Widows) — podcast
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)MAJOR THREATS
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)POSSIBILITIES
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) — podcast
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie) -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Viola Davis (Widows)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)POSSIBILITIES
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcastMAJOR THREATS
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)POSSIBILITIES
Robert Forster (What They Had)
Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) — podcast
Steve Carell (Vice) — podcast
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)MAJOR THREATS
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcastPOSSIBILITIES
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Linda Cardellini (Green Book)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns) -
Best Adapted Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)
BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)MAJOR THREATS
First Man (Josh Singer)
Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, David Schneider)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)POSSIBILITIES
Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
Beautiful Boy (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
Love, Simon (Elizabeth Berger, Isaac Aptaker)
Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman) -
Best Original Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
Vice (Adam McKay)
Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Eighth Grade (Bo Burnham)MAJOR THREATS
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)
Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)POSSIBILITIES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Ben Is Back (Peter Hedges)
Hereditary (Ari Aster)
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
Mid90s (Jonah Hill) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Mirai (GKIDS)MAJOR THREATS
Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
Ruben Brandt, Collector (Sony Classics)
Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory)
The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
Fireworks (GKIDS)
MFKZ (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing)
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts)
Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts)
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
On Happiness Road
Ana y Bruno
The Laws of the Universe – Part I
Tall Tales (Viva Kids) -
Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
RBG (Magnolia) SUND
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
The Sentence (HBO) SUND
Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
Dark Money (PBS) SUND
Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSWOTHER TOP CONTENDERS (alphabetical)
93Queen (Abramorama)
306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND
Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
Amazing Grace AFIF
American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist) CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
Believer (HBO)
BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND
The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
Call Her Ganda (Breaking Glass Pictures) TRIB
Charm City (PBS) TRIB
Chef Flynn (Kino Lorber) SUND
Communion
The Dawn Wall SXSW
Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
Drug$
Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
Fail State
Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
Ghost Fleet TELL
The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
Hillbilly (The Orchard)
In Search of Greatness (AOS)
Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND
Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
Liyana (Abramorama)
Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
Of Fathers and Sons (Kino Lorber) SUND NEW
The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
The Other Side of Everything (Icarus) TIFF ['17]
The Panama Papers
People's Republic of Desire SXSW
Pick of the Litter (Sundance Selects)
Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
Saving Brinton
Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
Screwball TIFF
The Silence of Others BERL
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
United Skates (HBO) TRIB
What Haunts Us
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
Yellow Is Forbidden TRIB -
Best Foreign Language Film
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUNDOTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)
10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen]
And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
Burnout [Morocco]
Cake [Pakistan]
The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
Champions [Spain]
Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
Crystal Swan [Belarus]
Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
Eternity [Peru]
Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
The Family [Venezuela]
Family First [Canada]
Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
Gutland [Luxembourg]
The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
Hidden Man [China] TIFF
I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
The Interpreter [Slovakia]
Iskra [Montenegro]
Ivan [Slovenia]
Jirga [Australia] TIFF
The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
The Marriage [Kosovo]
Medea [Costa Rica]
Memoir of War [France]
Muralla [Bolivia]
Namme [Georgia]
Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
Offenders [Serbia]
Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
Panchayat [Nepal]
Pilgrimage [Portugal]
Polyxeni [Greece]
The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
The Road to Sunrise [Malawi]
Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan]
Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
Signal Rock [Philippines]
Sobibor [Russia] CANN
A Son of Man [Ecuador]
Spitak [Armenia]
Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
Supa Modo [Kenya] BERL
The Tailor [Vietnam]
Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
To Be Continued [Latvia]
A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
Until the End of Time [Algeria]
Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
Yellow is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB
Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN -
Best Cinematography
FRONTRUNNERS
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
First Man (Linus Sandgren)MAJOR THREATS
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
The Rider (Joshua James Richards)
Mary Poppins Returns (Dion Beebe)
Green Book (Sean Porter)
At Eternity's Gate (Benoît Delhomme)
22 July (Pål Ulvik Rokseth)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Bruno Delbonnel)POSSIBILITIES
Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
A Private War (Robert Richardson)
Widows (Sean Bobbitt)
BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
Hereditary (Pawel Pogorzelski)
Vice (Greig Fraser)
BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
A Quiet Place (Charlotte Bruus Christensen) -
Best Original Song
FRONTRUNNERS
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)
Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga"All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave and SZA)
Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA"I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
Performed by Jennifer Hudson"Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast"Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel MirandaMAJOR THREATS
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
Performed by Emily Blunt"Requiem for a Private War" (A Private War, written by Annie Lennox)
Performed by Annie Lennox"Revelation" (Boy Erased, written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin and Troye Sivan)
Performed by Jonsi and Troye Sivan"Here Comes the Change" (On the Basis of Sex, written by Drew Pearson, Kesha Sebert and Stephen Wrabel)
Performed by Kesha“We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give, written by Jessica Karpov, Arlissa Ruppert, Kevin White and Mike Woods)
Performed by Arlissa Ruppert"Gravity" (Free Solo, written by Lori McKenna and Tim McGraw)
Performed by Tim McGraw"Living in the Moment" (Book Club, written by Walter Afanasieff, Jay Landers and Carole Bayer Sager)
Performed by Katharine McPhee"Keep Reachin'" (Quincy, written by Quincy Jones, Mark Ronson and Yebba Smith)
Performed by Chaka Khan and Mark Ronson"These Are the Words" (Pope Francis: A Man of His Word, written by Patti Smith and Tony Shanahan)
Performed by Patti Smith"Stronger Than I Ever Was" (Sherlock Gnomes, written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin)
Performed by Mary J. Blige"OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley"Sunflower" (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, written by Swae Lee and Post Malone)
Performed by Swae Lee and Post MalonePOSSIBILITIES
"I'll Never Love Again" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Aaron Raitiere)
Performed by Lady Gaga"Always Remember Us This Way" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Lori McKenna)
Performed by Lady Gaga"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson"The Big Unknown" (Widows, written by Sade Adu)
Performed by Sade Adu"Zero" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Imagine Dragons)
Performed by Imagine Dragons"Alfie's Song" (Love, Simon, written by Jack Antonoff, Ilsey Juber and Harry Styles)
Performed by Bleachers"Changes" (Mowgli: Legend of the Jungle, written by Nitin Sawhney)
Performed by Kara Marni"A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall and Alan Menken)
Performed by Gal Gadot and Sarah Silverman"Suspirium" (Suspiria, written by Thom Yorke)
Performed by Thom Yorke"Moon Boat" (Leave No Trace, written by Bryan Norcunas, Alex Peffer and Kendra Smith)
Performed by Kendra Smith and The Magician's Orchestra"Are You There?" (What They Had, written by Aoife O'Donovan)
Performed by Aoife O'Donovan"Treasure" (Beautiful Boy, written by Sampha)
Performed by Sampha"I Promise You" (Peter Rabbit, written by Ezra Koenig)
Performed by James Corden"Home Free" (Little Pink House, written by David Crosby and James Raymond)
Performed by David Crosby