The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist updates his assessment of 13 key categories.

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

• Best Picture

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
  Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Green Book (Universal) TIFF
  Black Panther (Disney)
  The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
  Vice (Annapurna)
  BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
  Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
  Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
  A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW

  MAJOR THREATS

  First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
  If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
  Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
  Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
  First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
  Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
  The Mule (Warner Bros.)
  Boy Erased (Focus Features) TELL, TIFF

• Best Director

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
  Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
  Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
  Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
  Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
  Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
  Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
  Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
  Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
  Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Steve McQueen (Widows) — podcast
  Paul Greengrass (22 July)
  Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

• Best Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Christian Bale (Vice)
  Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
  Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
  Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
  John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
  Ryan Gosling (First Man)
  Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
  Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
  Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
  Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) — podcast
  Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
  Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
  Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
• Best Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
  Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
  Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
  Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
  Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
  Toni Collette (Hereditary)
  Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
  Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
  Viola Davis (Widows)
  Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
  Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
  Charlize Theron (Tully)
  Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
  Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
  KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
  Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

• Best Supporting Actor

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
  Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
  Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
  Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
  Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast

  MAJOR THREATS

  Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
  Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
  Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
  Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
  Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Robert Forster (What They Had)
  Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
  Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) — podcast
  Steve Carell (Vice) — podcast
  John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

• Best Supporting Actress

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Amy Adams (Vice)
  Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
  Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
  Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
  Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
  Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast
  Marina de Tavira (Roma)
  Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
  Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast

  POSSIBILITIES

  Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
  Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
  Linda Cardellini (Green Book)
  Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
• Best Adapted Screenplay

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth)
  Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole, Ryan Coogler)
  BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)
  If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
  Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)

  MAJOR THREATS

  First Man (Josh Singer)
  Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim)
  Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
  The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, David Schneider)
  Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
  Wildlife (Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan)
  Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
  Beautiful Boy (Luke Davies, Felix Van Groeningen)
  The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
  Love, Simon (Elizabeth Berger, Isaac Aptaker)
  Leave No Trace (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
  The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman)

• Best Original Screenplay

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
  Vice (Adam McKay)
  Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
  Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
  Eighth Grade (Bo Burnham)

  MAJOR THREATS

  First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
  A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods)
  Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)
  Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)
  Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski)

  POSSIBILITIES

  The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
  Ben Is Back (Peter Hedges)
  Hereditary (Ari Aster)
  Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman)
  Mid90s (Jonah Hill)

• Best Animated Feature

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
  Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
  Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
  Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
  Mirai (GKIDS)

  MAJOR THREATS

  Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
  Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)
  Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
  Lu Over the Wall (GKIDS)
  Ruben Brandt, Collector (Sony Classics)
  Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory)
  The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
  Fireworks (GKIDS)
  MFKZ (GKIDS)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
  Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
  Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
  Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing)
  Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts)
  Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts)
  Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
  On Happiness Road
  Ana y Bruno
  The Laws of the Universe – Part I
  Tall Tales (Viva Kids)

   
• Best Documentary Feature

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST

  Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
  Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
  Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
  RBG (Magnolia) SUND
  Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND
  Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND
  Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
  Science Fair (National Geographic) SUND, SXSW
  Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND
  The Sentence (HBO) SUND
  Shirkers (Netflix) SUND
  Dark Money (PBS) SUND
  Filmworker (Kino Lorber) CANN ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Studio 54 (Zeitgeist) SUND, TRIB
  On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW

  OTHER TOP CONTENDERS (alphabetical)

  93Queen (Abramorama)
  306 Hollywood (El Tigre) SUND
  Always at the Carlyle (Good Deed)
  Amazing Grace AFIF
  American Dharma VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  Angels Are Made of Light TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blache (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist) CANN, TELL, NYFF, LOND
  Believer (HBO)
  BISBEE '17 (4th Row Films) SUND, LOND
  The Bleeding Edge (Netflix)
  Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], NYFF ['17]
  Call Her Ganda (Breaking Glass Pictures) TRIB
  Charm City (PBS) TRIB
  Chef Flynn (Kino Lorber) SUND
  Communion
  The Dawn Wall SXSW
  Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes (Magnolia) TIFF
  Drug$
  Eating Animals (Sundance Selects) TELL ['17]
  Fahrenheit 11/9 (Briarcliff) TIFF
  Fail State
  Far from the Tree (Sundance Selects)
  Generation Wealth (Amazon) SUND, BERL, SXSW
  Ghost Fleet TELL
  The Gospel According to André (Magnolia) TIFF ['17], TRIB
  Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami (Kino Lorber) TIFF ['17]
  Graves Without a Name TELL, TIFF
  The Great Buster: A Celebration VENI, TELL
  Hal (Oscilloscope) SUND, TELL
  The Heart of Nuba (Abramorama)
  Hillbilly (The Orchard)
  In Search of Greatness (AOS)
  Inventing Tomorrow (Fishbowl Films)
  Itzhak (Greenwich Entertainment)
  Jane Fonda in Five Acts (HBO) SUND
  John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope)
  The Judge (self distributed) TIFF
  The King (Oscilloscope) CANN ['17], SUND
  King in the Wilderness (HBO) SUND
  Kusama: Infinity (Magnolia) SUND
  Leaning Into the Wind: Andy Goldsworthy (Magnolia)
  Liyana (Abramorama)
  Love, Cecil (Zeitgeist) TELL ['17]
  Love, Gilda (Magnolia) TRIB
  Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) TIFF
  McQueen (Bleecker Street) TRIB
  Meeting Gorbachev TELL, TIFF
  Monrovia, Indiana (Zipporah) VENI, TIFF, NYFF
  Of Fathers and Sons (Kino Lorber) SUND NEW
  The Oslo Diaries (HBO) SUND
  The Other Side of Everything (Icarus) TIFF ['17]
  The Panama Papers
  People's Republic of Desire SXSW
  Pick of the Litter (Sundance Selects)
  Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (Focus Features) CANN
  The Price of Everything (HBO) SUND
  The Price of Free (YouTube) SUN
  Reversing Roe (Netflix) TELL, TIFF
  Robin Williams: Come Inside My Mind (HBO) SUND
  Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI) TRIB
  Saving Brinton
  Say Her Name: The Life And Death Of Sandra Bland (HBO)
  Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment) TIFF ['17]
  Screwball TIFF
  The Silence of Others BERL
  They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (Netflix) VENI, TELL
  United Skates (HBO) TRIB
  What Haunts Us
  What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael TELL
  Whitney (Roadside Attractions) CANN ['17]
  Yellow Is Forbidden TRIB

• Best Foreign Language Film

  

  PROJECTED SHORTLIST

  Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
  Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
  Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
  Border [Sweden] CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
  Girl [Belgium] CANN, TELL, TIFF
  The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND

  OTHER OFFICIAL SUBMISSIONS (alphabetical)

  10 Days Before the Wedding [Yemen]
  And Suddenly the Dawn [Chile]
  Ayka [Kazakhstan] CANN
  The Angel [Argentina] CANN, TIFF
  Beauty and the Dogs [Tunisia] CANN ['17], LOND ['17], AFIF ['17]
  Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Buffalo Boys [Singapore]
  Burnout [Morocco]
  Cake [Pakistan]
  The Cakemaker [Israel] LOND ['17]
  Champions [Spain]
  Cocote [Dominican Republic] TIFF ['17]
  Crystal Swan [Belarus]
  Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
  Donbass [Ukraine] CANN, TIFF
  Eldorado [Switzerland] TELL
  Eternity [Peru]
  Euthanizer [Finland] TIFF ['17]
  The Eighth Commissioner [Croatia]
  The Family [Venezuela]
  Family First [Canada]
  Ghost Hunting [Palestine] BERL ['17]
  Graves Without a Name [Cambodia] VENI, TELL
  The Great Buddha + [Taiwan] TIFF ['17]
  The Great Mystical Circus [Brazil] CANN
  Gutland [Luxembourg]
  The Heiresses [Paraguay] BERL
  Hidden Man [China] TIFF
  I Am Not a Witch [United Kingdom]
  I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History As Barbarians [Romania]
  The Interpreter [Slovakia]
  Iskra [Montenegro]
  Ivan [Slovenia]
  Jirga [Australia] TIFF
  The Journey [Iraq] TIFF ['17], LOND ['17]
  Malila: The Farewell Flower [Thailand]
  Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts [Indonesia] CANN ['17], TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
  The Marriage [Kosovo]
  Medea [Costa Rica]
  Memoir of War [France]
  Muralla [Bolivia]
  Namme [Georgia]
  Never Leave Me [Bosnia & Herzegovina]
  No Bed of Roses [Bangladesh]
  No Date, No Signature [Iran] VENI ['17]
  Offenders [Serbia]
  Omnipresent [Bulgaria]
  Operation Red Sea [Hong Kong]
  Panchayat [Nepal]
  Pilgrimage [Portugal]
  Polyxeni [Greece]
  The Resistance Banker [Netherlands]
  The Road to Sunrise [Malawi]
  Rona Azim's Mother [Afghanistan]
  Ruben Blades is Not My Name [Panama] SXSW
  Sew the Winter to My Skin [South Africa] TIFF
  Secret Ingredient [Macedonia]
  Signal Rock [Philippines]
  Sobibor [Russia] CANN
  A Son of Man [Ecuador]
  Spitak [Armenia]
  Sunset [Hungary] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF, LOND
  Supa Modo [Kenya] BERL
  The Tailor [Vietnam]
  Take It or Leave It [Estonia]
  To Be Continued [Latvia]
  A Twelve-Year Night [Uruguay] VENI
  Until the End of Time [Algeria]
  Village Rockstars [India] TIFF ['17]
  The Waldheim Waltz [Austria] BERL, NYFF
  The Wedding Ring [Niger] TIFF ['16]
  What Will People Say [Norway] TIFF ['17], AFIF ['17]
  The Wild Pear Tree [Turkey] CANN, TIFF
  Winter Flies [Czech Republic] TIFF
  Woman at War [Iceland] CANN, TIFF, LOND
  Wonderful Losers: A Different World [Lithuania]
  Yellow is Forbidden [New Zealand] TRIB
  Yomeddine [Egypt] CANN

• Best Cinematography

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
  A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
  Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
  Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
  First Man (Linus Sandgren)

  MAJOR THREATS

  The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
  If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
  The Rider (Joshua James Richards)
  Mary Poppins Returns (Dion Beebe)
  Green Book (Sean Porter)
  At Eternity's Gate (Benoît Delhomme)
  22 July (Pål Ulvik Rokseth)
  The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Bruno Delbonnel)

  POSSIBILITIES

  Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
  A Private War (Robert Richardson)
  Widows (Sean Bobbitt)
  BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
  Hereditary (Pawel Pogorzelski)
  Vice (Greig Fraser)
  BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
  A Quiet Place (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)
• Best Original Song

  

  FRONTRUNNERS

  "Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)
  Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

  "All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave and SZA)
  Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

  "I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
  Performed by Jennifer Hudson

  "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
  Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast

  "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
  Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda

  MAJOR THREATS

  "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
  Performed by Emily Blunt

  "Requiem for a Private War" (A Private War, written by Annie Lennox)
  Performed by Annie Lennox

  "Revelation" (Boy Erased, written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin and Troye Sivan)
  Performed by Jonsi and Troye Sivan

  "Here Comes the Change" (On the Basis of Sex, written by Drew Pearson, Kesha Sebert and Stephen Wrabel)
  Performed by Kesha

  “We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give, written by Jessica Karpov, Arlissa Ruppert, Kevin White and Mike Woods)
  Performed by Arlissa Ruppert

  "Gravity" (Free Solo, written by Lori McKenna and Tim McGraw)
  Performed by Tim McGraw

  "Living in the Moment" (Book Club, written by Walter Afanasieff, Jay Landers and Carole Bayer Sager)
  Performed by Katharine McPhee

  "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy, written by Quincy Jones, Mark Ronson and Yebba Smith)
  Performed by Chaka Khan and Mark Ronson

  "These Are the Words" (Pope Francis: A Man of His Word, written by Patti Smith and Tony Shanahan)
  Performed by Patti Smith

  "Stronger Than I Ever Was" (Sherlock Gnomes, written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin)
  Performed by Mary J. Blige

  "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
  Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley

  "Sunflower" (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, written by Swae Lee and Post Malone)
  Performed by Swae Lee and Post Malone

  POSSIBILITIES

  "I'll Never Love Again" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Aaron Raitiere)
  Performed by Lady Gaga

  "Always Remember Us This Way" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey and Lori McKenna)
  Performed by Lady Gaga

  "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
  Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson

  "The Big Unknown" (Widows, written by Sade Adu)
  Performed by Sade Adu

  "Zero" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Imagine Dragons)
  Performed by Imagine Dragons

  "Alfie's Song" (Love, Simon, written by Jack Antonoff, Ilsey Juber and Harry Styles)
  Performed by Bleachers

  "Changes" (Mowgli: Legend of the Jungle, written by Nitin Sawhney)
  Performed by Kara Marni

  "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall and Alan Menken)
  Performed by Gal Gadot and Sarah Silverman

  "Suspirium" (Suspiria, written by Thom Yorke)
  Performed by Thom Yorke

  "Moon Boat" (Leave No Trace, written by Bryan Norcunas, Alex Peffer and Kendra Smith)
  Performed by Kendra Smith and The Magician's Orchestra

  "Are You There?" (What They Had, written by Aoife O'Donovan)
  Performed by Aoife O'Donovan

  "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy, written by Sampha)
  Performed by Sampha

  "I Promise You" (Peter Rabbit, written by Ezra Koenig)
  Performed by James Corden

  "Home Free" (Little Pink House, written by David Crosby and James Raymond)
  Performed by David Crosby