Feinberg Forecast: The Full Oscars Landscape As 2018 Comes to an End

12:17 AM 12/27/2018

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist assesses all 24 categories, 11 for the first time.

Crazy Rich Asians Still 1- Constance Wu - Photofest-H 2018
Warner Bros./Photofest

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, AFID=AFI Docs, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    A Star Is Born
    (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Black Panther (Disney)
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Vice (Annapurna)
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW
    First Man
    (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
    Eighth Grade
    (A24) SUND, SXSW
    First Reformed (A24) VENI ('17), TELL ('17), TIFF ('17), NYFF ('17)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
    Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
    Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Director

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
    Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
    Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) — podcast
    Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Steve McQueen (Widows) — podcast
    Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Paul Greengrass (22 July)
    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
    Ryan Gosling (First Man)
    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
    Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) — podcast
    Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
    Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
    John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
    Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)

  • Best Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Toni Collette (Hereditary)
    Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
    Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
    Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
    Viola Davis (Widows)
    Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
    Charlize Theron (Tully)
    Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
    KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Regina Hall (Support the Girls)
    Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast
    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) — podcast
    Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Steve Carell (Vice) — podcast
    John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) — podcast
    Paul Giamatti (Private Life)
    Robert Forster (What They Had)
    Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
    Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    Marina de Tavira (Roma)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast
    Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
    Linda Cardellini (Green Book)
    Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
    Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & The Gun)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
    Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

    MAJOR THREATS

    First Man (Josh Singer)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim)
    Widows (Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Beau Willimon)
    The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury and David Schneider)
    Wildlife (Paul Dano and Zoe Kazan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)
    Beautiful Boy
    (Luke Davies and Felix Van Groeningen)
    The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
    Love, Simon
    (Elizabeth Berger and Isaac Aptaker)
    Leave No Trace (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini)
    The Front Runner (Matt Bai, Jay Carson and Jason Reitman)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
    The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
    Vice (Adam McKay) — podcast
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    Eighth Grade
    (Bo Burnham)

    MAJOR THREATS

    A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, John Krasinski and Bryan Woods)podcast
    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
    Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)
    Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki and Pawel Pawlikowski)

    Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Ethan Coen and Joel Coen)
    Ben Is Back
    (Peter Hedges)
    Hereditary
    (Ari Aster)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura and Jason Schwartzman)
    Mid90s (Jonah Hill)

  • Best Animated Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Mirai (GKIDS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)
    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
    (Universal/Illumination)
    Smallfoot (Warner Bros.)
    Lu Over the Wall
    (GKIDS)
    Ruben Brandt, Collector
    (Sony Classics)
    Tito and the Birds (Shout! Factory)
    The Night is Short, Walk On Girl (GKIDS)
    Fireworks (GKIDS)
    MFKZ (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (Warner Bros.)
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony Animation)
    Sherlock Gnomes (Paramount)
    Have a Nice Day (Strand Releasing)
    Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (Eleven Arts)
    Liz and the Blue Bird (Eleven Arts)
    Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
    On Happiness Road
    Ana y Bruno
    The Laws of the Universe – Part I
    Tall Tales (Viva Kids)

     
  • Best Documentary Feature

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND, AFID
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild) SUND, AFID
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND

    MAJOR THREATS

    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND
    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND, AFID
    Crime + Punishment
    (Hulu) SUND, AFID
    Of Fathers and Sons
    (Kino Lorber) SUND
    Communion (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    POSSIBILITIES

    On Her Shoulders (Oscilloscope) SUND, SXSW, AFID
    Charm City (PBS) TRIB, AFID
    The Distant Barking of Dogs   (still seeking U.S. distribution) AFID
    The Silence of Others (still seeking U.S. distribution) AFID
    Dark Money (PBS) SUND, AFID

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, NYFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Guilty [Denmark] (Magnolia) SUND
    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND
    Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF
    Ayka
    [Kazakhstan] CANN

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)
    Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
    Cold War
    (Lukasz Zal)
    First Man (Linus Sandgren)

    MAJOR THREATS

    If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
    The Rider (Joshua James Richards)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Dion Beebe)
    The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
    Green Book (Sean Porter)
    A Private War (Robert Richardson)
    At Eternity's Gate (Benoît Delhomme)
    22 July (Pål Ulvik Rokseth)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Bruno Delbonnel)
    Never Look Away
    (Caleb Deschanel)
    Widows (Sean Bobbitt)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    Hereditary (Pawel Pogorzelski)
    Vice (Greig Fraser)
    BlacKkKlansman (Chayse Irvin)
    A Quiet Place (Charlotte Bruus Christensen)

  • Best Costume Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
    Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Mary E. Vogt)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Colleen Atwood)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Julian Day)
    Colette (Andrea Flesch)
    A Star Is Born (Erin Benach)
    First Man (Mary Zophres)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Caroline Eselin)
    BlacKkKlansman (Marci Rodgers)
    Green Book
    (Betsy Heimann)
    Roma (Anna Terrazas)

  • Best Film Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Black Panther (Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver)
    A Star Is Born (Jay Cassidy)
    First Man (Tom Cross)
    Vice (Hank Corwin)
    Widows (Joe Walker)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout (Eddie Hamilton)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Wyatt Smith)
    The Favourite
    (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
    Roma
    (Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough)
    Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)

    POSSIBILITIES

    A Quiet Place (Christopher Tellefsen)
    BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    (Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders)
    22 July (William Goldenberg)
    Avengers: Infinity War (Jeffrey Ford and Matt Schmidt)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Vice
    Stan & Ollie

    Border

    MAJOR THREATS

    Suspiria
    Black Panther

    Mary Queen of Scots

    Bohemian Rhapsody

  • Best Original Score

    FRONTRUNNERS

    First Man (Justin Hurwitz)
    Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
    A Quiet Place
    (Marco Beltrami)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)
    BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Carter Burwell)
    Vice (Nicholas Britell)
    Ready Player One
    (Alan Silvestri)
    Avengers: Infinity War (Alan Silvestri)
    Crazy Rich Asians (Brian Tyler)
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (James Newton Howard)
    The Death of Stalin
    (Christopher Willis)
    Annihilation
    (Geoff Barrow and Ben Salisbury)

  • Best Original Song

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
    Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA and Anthony Tiffith)
    Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

    "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda

    "I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
    Performed by Jennifer Hudson

    "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
    Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Treasure" (Beautiful Boy, written by Sampha)
    Performed by Sampha

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt

    "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
    Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley

    "Revelation" (Boy Erased, written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin and Troye Sivan)
    Performed by Jonsi and Troye Sivan

    “We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give, written by Jessica Karpov, Arlissa Ruppert, Kevin White and Mike Woods)
    Performed by Arlissa Ruppert

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Keep Reachin'" (Quincy, written by Quincy Jones, Mark Ronson and Yebba Smith)
    Performed by Chaka Khan and Mark Ronson

    "Suspirium" (Suspiria, written by Thom Yorke)
    Performed by Thom Yorke

    "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
    Performed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson

    "The Big Unknown" (Widows, written by Sade Adu)
    Performed by Sade Adu

    "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet, written by Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall and Alan Menken)
    Performed by Gal Gadot and Sarah Silverman

  • Best Production Design

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
    The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
    Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)
    First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)
    Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)

    MAJOR THREATS

    A Star Is Born (Karen Murphy and Ryan Watson)
    Crazy Rich Asians
    (Andrew Baseman and Nelson Coates)
    A Quiet Place
    (Jeffrey Beecroft and Heather Loeffler)
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Gina Cromwell and James Merifield)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Aaron Haye and Anna Lynch-Robinson)
    Green Book (Tim Galvin and Selina van den Brink)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Isle of Dogs (Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen)
    Avengers: Infinity War (Charles Wood)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran)
    BlacKkKlansman (Curt Beech and Cathy T. Marshall)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Stephen H. Carter and Sarah E. McMillan)
    Vice (Jan Pascale and Patrice Vermette)
    Welcome to Marwen (Stefan Dechant)

  • Best Sound Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Quiet Place
    Black Panther

    First Man

    A Star Is Born

    Mary Poppins Returns

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Roma

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout

    Ready Player One

    POSSIBILITIES

    Avengers: Infinity War
    Incredibles 2

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    Solo: A Star Wars Story

  • Best Sound Mixing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    A Star Is Born
    Black Panther

    First Man

    A Quiet Place

    Mary Poppins Returns

    MAJOR THREATS

    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Roma

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout

    Ready Player One

    POSSIBILITIES

    Avengers: Infinity War
    Incredibles 2

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    Solo: A Star Wars Story

  • Best Visual Effects

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Black Panther
    First Man
    Mary Poppins Returns
    Avengers: Infinity War

    Ready Player One

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
    Solo: A Star Wars Story

    Welcome to Marwen
    Ant-Man and the Wasp

    Christopher Robin

  • Best Animated Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Bao (Pixar)
    Bilby (Universal)
    Bird Karma (Universal)
    Weekends (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    One Small Step (ShortsTV)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Age of Sail (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Lost & Found (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Late Afternoon (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Animal Behaviour (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Pepe le Morse (still seeking U.S. distribution)

  • Best Documentary Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zion (Netflix)
    Period. End of Sentence. (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    End Game (Netflix)
    A Night at the Garden (Field of Vision)
    ’63 Boycott (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lifeboat (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Los Comandos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes (NYT Op-Docs)
    Women of the Gulag (Mayfilms)
    Black Sheep (still seeking U.S. distribution)

  • Best Live Action Short

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Caroline (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Detainment (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Marguerite (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Fauve (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Wale (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Icare (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Skin (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Chuchotage (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Mother (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    May Day (still seeking U.S. distribution)