Feinberg Forecast: Scott's Final Projections Ahead of 91st Oscar Nominations

8:27 AM 1/20/2019

by Scott Feinberg

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist projects that the nomination leaders will be 'A Star Is Born' (10), 'Roma' (9), 'The Favourite' (8), 'First Man' (8), 'Bohemian Rhapsody' (7) and 'Vice' (6).

Roma Still 3 - Netflix Publicity-H 2018
Courtesy of Netflix

These projections reflect Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY  The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, AFID=AFI Docs, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

  • Best Picture

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Green Book (Universal) TIFF
    Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
    The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
    BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
    Black Panther (Disney)
    Vice (Annapurna)
    Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
    A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW

    ALTERNATE

    Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Private Life (Netflix) SUND, NYFF

  • Best Director

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) — podcast
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
    Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast
    Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

    ALTERNATE

    Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

  • Best Actor

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
    Christian Bale (Vice)
    Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
    Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
    Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Ryan Gosling (First Man)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) — podcast

     
  • Best Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
    Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite) — podcast
    Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) — podcast
    Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

    ALTERNATE

    Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Joanna Kulig (Cold War)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)

     
  • Best Supporting Actor

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Mahershala Ali (Green Book) — podcast
    Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
    Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) — podcast
    Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) — podcast
    Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    Sam Rockwell (Vice) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) — podcast

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Emma Stone (The Favourite) — podcast
    Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
    Amy Adams (Vice)
    Claire Foy (First Man) — podcast
    Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    ALTERNATE

    Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Marina de Tavira (Roma)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) — podcast
    A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
    Black Panther (Joe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler)
    Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
    BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott) — podcast

    ALTERNATE

    First Man (Josh Singer)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Leave No Trace (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Death of Stalin (Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury and David Schneider)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Green Book (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
    The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) — podcast
    Vice (Adam McKay) — podcast
    Eighth Grade
    (Bo Burnham)

    ALTERNATE

    First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Cold War (Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki and Pawel Pawlikowski)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Mid90s (Jonah Hill)

  • Best Animated Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar)
    Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
    Isle of Dogs
    (Fox Searchlight) BERL, SXSW
    Mirai (GKIDS)

    ALTERNATE

    Early Man (Lionsgate/Aardman)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (Universal/Illumination)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Ruben Brandt, Collector (Sony Classics)

     
  • Best Documentary Feature

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) SUND, SXSW
    Free Solo (National Geographic) TELL, TIFF
    Minding the Gap (Hulu/Magnolia) SUND, AFID
    RBG (Magnolia) SUND
    Three Identical Strangers (Neon) SUND

    ALTERNATE

    Shirkers (Netflix) SUND, AFID

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Crime + Punishment (Hulu) SUND, AFID

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Quincy (Netflix) TIFF
     

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Roma [Mexico] (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Cold War [Poland] (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Shoplifters [Japan] (Magnolia) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
    Capernaum [Lebanon] (Sony Classics) CANN, TIFF
    Burning [South Korea] (Well Go USA) CANN, TIFF, NYFF

    ALTERNATE

    Never Look Away [Germany] (Sony Classics) VENI, TIFF

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Birds of Passage [Colombia] (The Orchard) CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Dogman [Italy] CANN, TELL, TIFF, LOND

     
  • Best Cinematography

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) — podcast
    Cold War
    (Lukasz Zal)
    First Man (Linus Sandgren)
    The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
    A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique)

    ALTERNATE

    Black Panther (Rachel Morrison) — podcast

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Bohemian Rhapsody (Newton Thomas Sigel)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Rider (Joshua James Richards)

     
  • Best Costume Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Colleen Atwood)
    Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)
    The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
    Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

    ALTERNATE

    Bohemian Rhapsody (Julian Day) 

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    If Beale Street Could Talk (Caroline Eselin)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)

  • Best Film Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    A Star Is Born (Jay Cassidy)
    First Man (Tom Cross)
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    (John Ottman)
    Roma (Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough) — podcast
    Vice (Hank Corwin)

    ALTERNATE

    Black Panther (Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout (Eddie Hamilton)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Vice
    Bohemian Rhapsody

    Stan & Ollie

    ALTERNATE

    Suspiria

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Border

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Favourite

  • Best Original Score

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    First Man (Justin Hurwitz)
    If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
    Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)
    Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)
    A Quiet Place (Marco Beltrami)

    ALTERNATE

    BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Carter Burwell)

     
  • Best Original Song

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    "Shallow" (A Star Is Born, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
    Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

    "All the Stars" (Black Panther, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA and Anthony Tiffith)
    Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

    "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin', written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
    Performed by Dolly Parton — podcast

    "I'll Fight" (RBG, written by Diane Warren)
    Performed by Jennifer Hudson

    "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda

    ALTERNATE

    "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
    Performed by Emily Blunt

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    "OYAHYTT" (Sorry to Bother You, written by The Coup/Boots Riley)
    Performed by The Coup/Boots Riley

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    "Requiem for a Private War" (A Private War, written by Annie Lennox)
    Performed by Annie Lennox

  • Best Production Design

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
    First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)
    Roma
    (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock)
    Bohemian Rhapsody (Aaron Haye and Anna Lynch-Robinson)

    ALTERNATE

    Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Sorry to Bother You (Jason Kisvarday)

  • Best Sound Editing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    First Man
    A Quiet Place

    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Black Panther
    Mission: Impossible — Fallout

    ALTERNATE

    A Star Is Born

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Roma

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Avengers: Infinity War

  • Best Sound Mixing

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    A Star Is Born
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    First Man

    A Quiet Place

    Roma

    ALTERNATE

    Mary Poppins Returns

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Black Panther

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout

  • Best Visual Effects

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    First Man
    Avengers: Infinity War

    Solo: A Star Wars Story

    Ready Player One

    Welcome to Marwen

    ALTERNATE

    Black Panther

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Christopher Robin

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Mission: Impossible — Fallout

     
  • Best Animated Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Bao (Pixar)
    Bird Karma (Universal)
    Bilby (Universal)
    Weekends (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    One Small Step (ShortsTV)

    ALTERNATE

    Age of Sail (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Lost & Found (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Pepe le Morse (still seeking U.S. distribution)

  • Best Documentary Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Zion (Netflix)
    Period. End of Sentence. (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    End Game (Netflix)
    Women of the Gulag (Mayfilms)
    ’63 Boycott (Kartemquin/PBS WORLD)

    ALTERNATE

    A Night at the Garden (Field of Vision)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes (NYT Op-Docs)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Take Back the Harbor (Discovery)

  • Best Live Action Short

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Wale (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Caroline (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Detainment (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Marguerite (still seeking U.S. distribution)
    Fauve (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    ALTERNATE

    Icare (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    POTENTIAL SURPRISE

    Skin (still seeking U.S. distribution)

    SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA

    Chuchotage (still seeking U.S. distribution)