'Walking Dead': Placing the Odds on Who Died in the Finale

THR ranks all 11 survivors who were left kneeling before Negan (and Lucille).

[Warning: This story contains spoilers from the season six finale of AMC's The Walking Dead, "Last Day on Earth," and the comic book series that the show is based on.]

AMC's The Walking Dead spent much of its 90-minute season finale proving that Negan (Jeffrey Dean Morgan) wasn't screwing around.

The comic book villain made his debut during the season six finale, which saw the leader of the so-called Saviors explain his new world order: his camp takes half of everyone's stuff in exchange for protection — from them. But first, he made sure to send a message to Rick Grimes (Andrew Lincoln) that the former sheriff was no longer the big boss in town.

Following the landmark 100th issue of the comics nearly panel by panel, the zombie drama lined up 11 members of the survivors: Rick (Andrew Lincoln), Michonne (Danai Gurira), Glenn (Steven Yeun), Daryl (Norman Reedus), Rosita (Christian Serratos), Carl (Chandler Riggs), Maggie (Lauren Cohan), Aaron (Ross Marquand), Eugene (Josh McDermitt), Abraham (Michael Cudlitz) and Sasha (Sonequa Martin-Green). Negan then introduced them to Lucille, his baseball bat covered in barbed wire, and explained that he was going to kill one of them as a form of payback after Rick and company killed multiple members of his group.

With the 11 all lined up on their knees in front of Negan, the charismatic leader of the Saviors, swings Lucille at one of them before the series changes its point of view to that of the victim. With blood dripping down the screen, the series cut to black and viewers heard the jarring and repeated sounds of Lucille crushing someone's skull.

So who died? Here, THR rates all 11 survivors and places the odds on who was on the receiving end of Negan's big swing.

Carl (Chandler Riggs) — 100-to-1

We're going to quote Negan in the finale for our justification here: "Anybody moves, anybody says anything, cut the boy's other eye out and feed it to his father and then we'll start." He's safe. Plus, the dynamic between Carl and Negan in the comics is just too rich for the series not to explore. And let's not forget about this.

Rick (Andrew Lincoln) — 95-to-1

See above.

Michonne (Danai Gurira) — 90-to-1

The AMC series has already killed off Andrea (Laurie Holden), who in the comics winds up becoming Rick's longtime girlfriend and a mother to Carl. The series has only just scratched the surface of the romantic dynamic between Rick and Michonne as a couple.

Eugene (Josh McDermitt) — 60-to-1

He's finally reached Stage 2 — able to kill walkers and defend himself — and he has a long-term plan to manufacture bullets that is key to Alexandria's future and the new currency in town. If there's any hope for besting Negan, it'll take ammunition and a leader to make it. The show needs Eugene's comedic moments — plus think of all the new bromance jokes if Abraham survives, too.

Maggie (Lauren Cohan) and her unborn baby — 50-to-1

For a series that opted to keep baby Judith alive rather than follow the infant's heartbreaking death in the comics, killing Maggie — who already looks terrible — and her unborn baby would be realllllllllllly dark.

Sasha (Sonequa Martin-Green) — 40-to-1

Where Michonne is picking up Andrea's romantic storyline from the comics, Sasha is doing the same for the warrior and protector of Alexandria. Sasha has already lost her brother, Tyreese, and boyfriend Bob. She's only recently come out of her dark funk to become a key member of the community and, with Abraham, has started a new relationship. Killing her would impact Abraham but it wouldn't have as big of an emotional punch as if someone with deeper ties to the group — like Daryl — were to be killed.  

Daryl (Norman Reedus) — 35-to-1

He's been shot. That's enough. If Daryl dies, we riot.

Aaron (Ross Marquand) — 20-to-1

We don't know much at all about him other than he's gotten through to Daryl and helps recruit new members to Alexandria. Plus we don't think The Walking Dead wants to contribute yet another death to the Bury Your Gays problem.

Rosita (Christian Serratos) — 10-to-1

Aside from former traveling companions Abraham and Eugene, Rosita hasn't connected with as much of the group as they have. We know little to nothing about who she is and, sans Abraham, could be a compelling character to explore. Plus she winds up being a love interest for Eugene later in the comics and a guy with a plan to make bullets after the world ends deserves happiness, too.

Abraham (Michael Cudlitz) — 5-to-1

In the comics, Abraham is the one who takes the arrow through the eye that went to Denise on the AMC take. The former Army soldier has been one of the more compelling character explorations this season after he was inspired by Glenn and Maggie's romance to fight for a future. After shacking up with Sasha, he seems truly happy — which if you remember Bob, is a total curse on this show.

Glenn (Steven Yeun) — 2-to-1

Glenn is the one Negan winds up beating to death in the 100th issue of the comics. Yeun, sources say, only had a one-year deal to return for season six. The character has had his back up against the wall too many times to count — including the now-infamous "dumpster dive." Allowing the character to survive would just do too much harm to the show's already sagging credibility. Comics creator Robert Kirkman said Sunday on Talking Dead that Negan's victim is "beloved to everyone." Given that Glenn refrained from killing another human until the Saviors, death by Lucille would be a fitting end for the character.

Who do you think dies? Vote in our poll below and stay tuned to THR.com/WalkingDead for interviews with showrunner Scott M. Gimple, Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Andrew Lincoln and Greg Nicotero, all coming Monday.