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Fox News Oscar Expert Tariq Khan explains why The Social Network simply has to lose to all the King’s men on Oscar night.
Gold Derby reports Khan’s top five reasons The King’s Speech must win:
1. It’s likely to get 11 noms vs. Social Network‘s 9, and having nobody top your tally corresponds with best picture in 75% of the past 40 years. (Not sure how he knows it won’t be 9 for the King and 11 for Network, though.)
2. Actors, the biggest voting branch, like King’s better, the same way they liked Hurt Locker better than Avatar. (But Network isn’t animated, which is why they hated Avatar. Few admired anything but the tech achievement of Avatar; critics prefer Hurt Locker 97% to 83% on Rotten Tomatoes, and almost every critics group has backed Network over King’s.)
“It’s a scenario that could be identical to the Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan battle,” says Khan. But that was an historic upset orchestrated by Harvey Weinstein when he had way more money and more absolute power, and nobody has heard of any comparable two-fisted machinations on behalf of The King’s Speech. See tomorrow’s special Sundance issue of The Hollywood Reporter for Stephen Galloway‘s savvy guide to precisely what Harvey needs to do right now to beat The Social Network.
3. It will win the SAG award, reversing the Network tide, just as the SAG award helped trigger the Shakespeare in Love and Crash upsets. (But who knows who’ll win the SAG award?)
4. The preferential ballot means even if Social Network gets more #1 votes, King’s will win because it will be in most Oscar voters’ top three. (Could happen that way. Or not.)
5. It’s now the underdog. “Academy voters … want to show that they think for themselves.” (I thought they might vote against King’s because for so long everybody said they were destined to vote for it. If they’re really pissed about being seen as lemmings, maybe they’ll vote for The Fighter just to spite us.)
Follow THR‘s The Race Awards blog @timappelo
Feedback, brickbats, shameless lobbying to: Tim.Appelo@thr.com.
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