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Will Amy Schumer get the last laugh and prove Hollywood tracking services wrong?
Schumer’s new movie, I Feel Pretty, won’t match the openings of her past two big-screen comedies, Trainwreck and Snatched, when it hits theaters this weekend, according to those with access to the surveys.
Forecasts show I Feel Pretty — about a woman who thinks she looks like a supermodel after she bumps her head during a spinning mishap — debuting in the $13 million-$15 million range domestically. The film is from STX Entertainment, home of the Bad Moms series.
In May 2017, Snatched, a two-hander starring Schumer opposite Goldie Hawn, opened to $19.5 million in North America. The film burned out quickly, grossing $45.9 million domestically and $60.8 million globally.
Snatched was Schumer’s first feature film since Trainwreck, which launched to $30.1 million in summer 2015. Trainwreck, a water-cooler sensation that propelled Schumer to stardom, went on to earn $110.2 million in North America and $140.8 million globally. Judd Apatow directed the raunchy comedy from a script by Schumer.
Both Trainwreck (Universal) and Snatched (20th Century Fox) were rated R, while I Feel Pretty sports a friendlier PG-13 rating in hopes of enticing younger teen girls in addition to older women.
Schumer can be a polarizing figure because of her brash sense of humor. And some on social media have taken umbrage with the fact that her character in the new film is anything but fat or ugly, regardless of how she feels about herself before falling off of a cycle and hurting her noggin.
STX says the overall reaction to the first trailer was so strong that it moved up the film’s release from summer to now.
And those with access to tracking say that unaided awareness is one just point behind Snatched and three points behind Trainwreck, meaning I Feel Pretty could overperform. In terms of definite interest, another key metric, I Feel Pretty is one point ahead of Trainwreck and two points behind Snatched.
Tracking certainly isn’t a science. Earlier this month, Paramount and John Krasinski’s high-concept horror film A Quiet Place was projected to open to $25 million; instead, it scaled $50 million. And in January, STX’s Den of Thieves debuted to $15 million, whereas tracking had it at about half that.
STX will do a major marketing and advertising blitz for I Feel Pretty this week that will amount to roughly 40 percent of the total campaign.
I Feel Pretty opens three weeks after Blockers, a Universal comedy about a group of girls who decide to lose their virginity on prom night, only to have their parents try to thwart their plan. Blockers scored the biggest opening for an R-rated comedy ($20.6 million) since fellow Universal release Girls Trip ($31.2 million) in summer 2017.
In addition to Schumer, I Feel Pretty also stars Michelle Williams, Rory Scovel, Emily Ratajkowski, Aidy Bryant, Busy Philipps, Tom Hopper, Naomi Campbell and Lauren Hutton. Abby Kohn and Marc Silverstein directed.
The review embargo will lift Wednesday.
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