Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new “Feinberg Forecast,” a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)
NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK’S FORECAST:
- At the box office, Warner Bros.’ Argo, in its first weekend, came in a close second to Taken 2, in its second, exceeding projections by taking in $20.1 million. (The film also had its first official Academy screening on Saturday night and played like gangbusters.) Oscilloscope Laboratories’ doc Samsara became the distributor’s highest-grossing film ever with a cume of $1.8 million, surpassing We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011). And Summit’s The Impossible, which was written and directed by Spaniards, had the biggest opening in history in Spain, grossing $13.4 million.
- The final week of the 50th New York Film Festival was highlighted by a work-in-progress screening of DreamWorks’ Lincoln (attended by its Oscar-winning director Steven Spielberg and stars Daniel Day-Lewis and Sally Field) and the closing-night screening of Paramount’s Flight (attended by its Oscar-winning director Robert Zemeckis and star Denzel Washington), both of which generated considerable buzz.
- The 48th Chicago International Film Festival, meanwhile, opened with its own a star-studded world premiere, Lionsgate’s Stand-Up Guys, a comedy that stars Oscar winners Al Pacino, Christopher Walken and Alan Arkin, with original songs by Jon Bon Jovi.
- There are only a handful of awards hopefuls that have yet to screen anywhere. This week marked the release of several of their first trailers (The Weinstein Co.’s Django Unchained, Fox Searchlight’s Hitchcock, and Sony’s Zero Dark Thirty) and posters (Paramount’s The Guilt Trip and Universal’s Les Miserables.)
- The Hollywood Film Awards, the first awards show of the Oscar season, announced that best actor hopeful Richard Gere (Arbitrage) will receive the Hollywood Career Achievement Award at its gala ceremony on Oct. 22. Despite a 40-year career that has included numerous heralded performances in high-profile films, Gere has yet to be nominated for an Academy Award.
- It has been announced that the 26th AFI Fest, which will open with the world premiere of Hitchcock on Nov. 1 and close with the world premiere of Lincoln on Nov. 8, will also feature the Los Angeles premieres of A24’s Ginger and Rosa, Summit’s The Impossible, 20th Century Fox’s Life of Pi, IFC Films’ On the Road, DreamWorks Animation’s Rise of the Guardians and The Weinstein Co.’s Quartet and Silver Linings Playbook, as well as a special tribute to best actress Oscar hopeful Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone).
- The IFP announced that the aforementioned Cotillard will also receive a career tribute at the 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards on Nov. 26, joining three previously announced recipients, actor Matt Damon (Promised Land), writer-director David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook, and producer Jeff Skoll (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Lincoln and Promised Land).
- Several 2012 awards contenders who are usually somewhat reclusive were coaxed onto the campaign trail this week: directors Andy Wachowski and Lana Wachowski, along with their Cloud Atlas co-director Tom Tykwer, granted a select handful of interviews on both coasts (including one to this writer that will post shortly); actor Daniel Day-Lewis and director Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) participated in a live-streaming Q&A for Yahoo! Movies on Wednesday; writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) participated in a town hall Q&A for Siriux XM on Friday; and actor Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson) attended the New York Film Festival premiere and after-party for his film on Saturday.
- THR has learned that, on the basis of the strong box office generated by their films and the positive reviews of their performances, Jake Gyllenhaal will receive a best actor Oscar campaign for End of Watch, Emily Blunt will receive a best supporting actress Oscar campaign for Looper, and Josh Brolin will receive a best supporting actor Oscar campaign for Men in Black 3.
- Another report indicates that Anne Hathaway will receive a best actress campaign for The Dark Knight Rises — the push for her work in that film is purely a token gesture, regardless of category, but it logically had to come in lead, since she actually has a legitimate shot in supporting for her other 2012 performance, in Les Miserables, and would not want to dilute her support for it.
- The Academy’s 160-member documentary branch, which is perpetually at the center of controversy and revamped its voting system after last year’s Oscars to try to address some of its biggest problems, has been forced to acknowledge deep flaws in its new system, as well. Indeed, as a result of its recent changes, branch members — who used to be asked to review only a selection of doc submissions, but now are asked to chime in on all of them — have found themselves inundated with screeners in the year’s fourth-quarter (reportedly 130), with only a short time left to try to watch them. Consequently, the branch has decided to extend its voting deadline from Nov. 14 to Nov. 26, and encourage members to recommend titles to one another on its online message board in order to weed out the best from the rest. Further amendments to the voting system are expected after this year’s Oscars.
- The Academy also announced a shortlist of eight documentary shorts, chosen from 31 entries, from which three to five will be selected as nominees for the best documentary short Oscar when the Academy announces its full list of nominees for the 85th Academy Awards on Jan. 10. (One, The Education of Mohammad Hussein, was co-directed by Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady, who were nominated for the best documentary feature Oscar for Jesus Camp six years ago and are vying for another nomination in that category this year for Detropia.)
- Actress-singer Barbra Streisand, who is now 70 years old and a best actress hopeful for The Guilt Trip, made a triumphant return to her hometown of Brooklyn in a series of three “homecoming” concerts that were tremendously well-received. This can only help the 1968 best actress Oscar winner’s 2012 awards campaign, although it remains likely that if she receives any recognition for her performance in Anne Fletcher‘s comedy, it will come from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which determines the Golden Globe Award nominations and wins, not the more serious-minded Academy.
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TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey, whose highly influential public endorsement has long been coveted by awards contenders, surprised many by issuing two Tweets and one Facebook posting on behalf of AAFFRM’s indie drama Middle of Nowhere, which opened in select theaters on Friday. Winfrey Tweeted at the film’s writer-director Ava DuVernay: “Saw your movie… Excellent job, especially with no money. Brave to you my sistah,” and separately Tweeted, “Saw the film MIDDLE OF NOWHERE. Powerful and Poetic. Opens this wknd in NY, LA, ATL, DC, Philly.”
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST:
BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, TBA)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)
On the Road (IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/14, TBA, trailer)
Trouble With the Curve (Warner Bros., 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
Not Fade Away (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, TBA)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Sapphires (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Possibilities
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
David Ayer (End of Watch)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)
Walter Salles (On the Road)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)
David Chase (Not Fade Away)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Wayne Blair (The Sapphires)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Major Threats
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas) NEW
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty)
Possibilities
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Al Pacino (Stand Up Guys)
Christopher Walken (Stand Up Guys)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)
Alan Cumming (Any Day Now) NEW
Frank Langella (Robot & Frank)
Terence Stamp (Song for Marion)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Michael Shannon (The Iceman)
BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas) NEW
Possibilities
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Kristen Wiig (Imogene)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)
Rashida Jones (Celeste and Jesse Forever)
Zoe Kazan (Ruby Sparks)
Toni Collette (Jesus Henry Christ)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)
Major Threats
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Possibilities
Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
Alan Arkin (Stand Up Guys)
James Gandolfini (Not Fade Away)
Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
Tom Courtenay (Quartet)
Billy Connolly (Quartet)
Josh Brolin (Men in Black 3)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Chris O’Dowd (The Sapphires)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Major Threats
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emily Blunt (Looper) NEW
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Possibilities
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Amy Adams (Trouble With the Curve)
Christina Hendricks (Ginger & Rosa)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion)
Pauline Collins (Quartet)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Major Threats
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
Rise of the Guardians (William Joyce)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Possibilities
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Stand Up Guys (Noah Haidle)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Ted (Seth MacFarlane, Alec Sulkin, Wellesley Wild)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper)
The Sapphires (Tony Briggs, Keith Thompson)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi’s Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Magnolia, 3/9, PG, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
No Place on Earth (Magnolia, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Possibilities
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, trailer)
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria — Amour
France — The Intouchables
Denmark — A Royal Affair
Switzerland — Sister
Israel — Fill the Void
Major Threats
Romania — Beyond the Hills
South Korea — Pieta
Germany — Barbara
Australia — Lore
Canada — War Witch
Japan — Our Homeland
Bosnia and Herzegovina — Children of Sarajevo
Hungary — Just the Wind
Bulgaria — Sneakers
Greece — Unfair World
Possibilities
Philippines — Bwakaw
Chile — No
Portugal — Blood of My Blood
Serbia — When Day Breaks
Belgium — Our Children
Morocco — Death for Sale
Netherlands — Kauwboy
Norway — Kon-Tiki
Sweden — The Hypnotist
Mexico — After Lucia
Iceland — The Deep
Czech Republic — In the Shadow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hunger Games
Sister
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom
Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror
BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo
Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Possibilities
Flight
The Bourne Legacy
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
The Impossible
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock
Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)
Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom
Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall
BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Possibilities
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires
BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Skyfall
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Major Threats
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight
Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy
Skyfall
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films) NEW
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.) NEW
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.) NEW
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions) NEW
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.) NEW
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company) NEW
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.) NEW
Redemption (Downtown Docs) NEW
* * *
ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG “FEINBERG FORECAST”
Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry’s most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world’s best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).
Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).
