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A battle is shaping up between The Fault in Our Stars and Tom Cruise sci-fi epic Edge of Tomorrow — and Fault could win, based on early tracking. Both movies in three weeks on open June 6.
Josh Boone‘s adaptation of John Green‘s wildly successful YA novel could open to $35 million, a big number considering the Fox movie cost just $12 million to make. Starring Shailene Woodley, the story follows two cancer-stricken teens who embark on a poignant romance. Fox insiders are being more conservative, suggesting $20 million to $25 million.
Both films popped up on tracking Thursday, and based on initial results, director Doug Liman‘s Edge of Tomorrow may take in $25 million to $30 million in its debut, a problematic start for the $175 million film. Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow Pictures partnered on the movie, and still have three weeks to make its final marketing push.
Cruise’s last film, Universal’s sci-fi adventure Oblivion, opened to $37.1 million in April 2013, a far less competitive corridor than the heart of summer.
The actor remains a far bigger star overseas, and Edge of Tomorrow, also starring Emily Blunt, could make up ground internationally, where tracking is strong.
Fault in Our Stars is looking like a sizable winner for star Woodley and 20th Century Fox.
Teenage girls are expressing the most interest in seeing the movie, but tracking among older females is strong as well (Fox believes the film will provide a welcome relief from traditional action fare). Ansel Elgort and Nat Wolff also star in Fault in Our Stars.
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