Christmas 2020 Marks Historic Box Office-Streaming Mashup

The year-end holiday corridor is often the merriest time of the year at the box office.

This year, however, the two biggest holiday tentpoles waiting to be unwrapped on Dec. 25 — Wonder Woman 1984 and Soul — will debut on streaming services amid the ongoing novel coronavirus and widespread theater closures. The season’s other big title, News of the World, will make a theater-only play before being made available on PVOD in several weeks.

Every studio is taking a different approach as the year-end holidays get underway.

From Warner Bros., WW1984 will also play in more than 2,000 cinemas that remain open in North America, although many major markets, including New York City and Los Angeles, remain off limits. Analysts expect the pic, reteaming director Patty Jenkins and star Gal Gadot, to earn $10 million to $14 million at the box office considering the many challenges it faces, including a simultaneous home release and possible piracy.

“In a year of many ‘firsts,’ the Christmas box-office will be put to the test with a historic — albeit controversial — same day release strategy that will show the industry whether it’s indeed naughty or nice to offer a true blockbuster movie on the big and small screen on the same day and how consumers will react to this unprecedented mashup,” says Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

It’s unprecedented for a major Hollywood studio to shatter the traditional theatrical window, but exhibitors gave Warners a pass in regards to WW1984 considering the circumstances. The film’s release had been pushed numerous times. (However, that generosity doesn’t extend to a subsequent decision to send Warners’ entire 2021 slate simultaneously to HBO Max and the big screen.)

Pixar’s Soul will debut exclusively on Disney+ in the U.S. and other markets where the streaming service is available. In other territories, such as China, it will get a theatrical release.

Universal, including its specialty label Focus Features, along with DreamWorks Animation, have been releasing far more films than any other Hollywood major thanks to its historic premium VOD deal with the country’s major exhibitors.

Directed by Paul Greengrass and starring Tom Hanks, News of the World will open Christmas Day in approximately 1,900 theaters. Analysts are expecting the adult drama to earn $4 million to $5 million over Christmas weekend.

News of the World is planting a flag in this season’s delayed awards race; ditto for Focus, which will open Promising Young Woman, starring Carey Mulligan and produced by Margot Robbie, in 1,300 cinemas on Christmas Day.

Other Christmas offerings at the challenged box office include the English-language version of Pinocchio, starring Roberto Benigni. Roadside Attractions is handling the Italian film domestically.

“There’s the typical slate of really good films coming out for Christmas in Wonder Woman 1984, Soul and News of the World. Unfortunately, very few people will be able or willing to see these movies in theaters as the industry continues to feel the impact of the pandemic,” says Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners.

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