Javier Bardem plays villain Raoul Silva.
Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new “Feinberg Forecast,” a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)
PHOTOS: The 8 Studio Picks for Best Picture Oscar
NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK’S FORECAST:
- Oscar nominations voting got underway on Dec. 17, as paper ballots were mailed out to the nearly 6,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, who were also offered the option to vote online this year for the first time in the Academy’s 85-year history. Voting will close on Jan. 3, and the nominees will be announced on Jan. 10.
- The Academy’s music branch released a list on Dec. 10 of the 104 original scores (including five composed by Danny Elfman and three composed by Alexandre Desplat) from which its members will pick their five best original score Oscar nominees and released a list on Dec. 11 of the 75 original songs (including one that was specifically written for the film version of Les Miserables, as well as other tunes from the likes of Adele, Jon Bon Jovi, Dolly Parton, Katy Perry and Keith Urban, with a total of nine from documentaries) from which its members will pick their five best original song Oscar nominees.
- The Academy’s makeup and hairstyling branch released a list on Dec. 15 of the seven makeup and hairstyling jobs from which its members will pick their five best makeup and hairstyling Oscar nominees: Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Looper, Men in Black 3 and Snow White and the Huntsman. (Notably absent from the list: Cloud Atlas and Holy Motors.) Members will view clips from the films at an event scheduled for Jan. 5.
- As if they didn’t have enough other things to worry about this week, the U.S. Senate found time to weigh in on the Oscar race. The leadership of both parties essentially endorsed DreamWorks‘ Lincoln when they hosted a special screening for senators on Dec. 19. Then, on Dec. 20, a bipartisan group of high-profile senators issued a scathing condemnation of Sony’s Zero Dark Thirty, claiming the way that it suggests the U.S. learned the location of Osama bin Laden — namely, through the waterboarding of an enemy combatant — is “grossly inaccurate and misleading.”
- The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook was the big winner at the International Press Academy’s 17th Satellite Awards on Dec. 16, winning best picture, best director (David O. Russell), best actor (Bradley Cooper), best actress (Jennifer Lawrence) and best film editing (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers). Other noteworthy winners included Javier Bardem (Skyfall) for best supporting actor and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) for best supporting actress.
- The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that best director Oscar hopeful Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) will receive its Sonny Bono Visionary Award, best actor Oscar hopeful Richard Gere (Arbitrage) will receive its Chairman’s Award, best actress Oscar hopeful Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) will receive its International Star Award, and best original score Oscar hopeful Mychael Danna (Life of Pi) will receive its Frederick Loewe Award for Film Composing on Jan. 5, during the festival’s 24th installment.
- The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that best actor Oscar hopeful Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) will receive its Montecito Award on Jan. 26 and that best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Amy Adams (The Master) will receive its Cinema Vanguard Award on Jan. 31, during the festival’s 28th installment.
- Lee Hirsch, director of The Weinstein Co.’s best documentary feature Oscar hopeful Bully, a film about school bullying, has been chosen to receive the Producers Guild of America’s Stanley Kramer Award, which honors productions and individuals that “illuminate and raise public awareness of important social issues,” as well as the top honor at the 2012 Emery Awards, a fundraiser held by the Hetrick-Martin Institute, the nation’s oldest and largest LGBTQ youth services organization.
- The Art Directors Guild announced that the production designers who worked on the 23 James Bond films that have been released over the last half-century, including this year’s Skyfall, will receive the Cinematic Imagery Award for their “visionary and innovative design” at the ADG Awards on Feb. 2.
- Paul Williams, who is the subject of the documentary Paul Williams: Still Alive and the singer of its short-listed best original song Oscar hopeful “Still Alive,” will be honored with a retrospective at New York’s Museum of the Moving Image from Jan. 25-27. Williams, who already has seven best original song Oscar nominations to his name, will attend all screenings of films featuring his work during the programming.
- The short-listed best animated short Oscar hopeful Combustible won the Grand Prize for Animation at the 16th Japan Media Arts Festival.
- In Entertainment Weekly, actress Reese Witherspoon championed the best actress Oscar candidacy of Naomi Watts (The Impossible) and writer/director Jason Reitman boosted the best original screenplay Oscar candidacy of Rian Johnson (Looper).
- NBC’s Saturday Night Live announced that best actress Oscar hopeful Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) will host the Jan. 19 episode of the show, providing her with invaluable media exposure shortly after the Oscar nominees are announced on Jan. 10 but before final voting begins on Feb. 8.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST:
BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer) AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer) AFI, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer) AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, BFCA, FI
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer) LAFCA
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer) BFCA
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer) AFI, HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer) SAG, HFPA
The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer)
Possibilities
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) IPA
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI
BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Ben Affleck (Argo) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Ang Lee (Life of Pi) HFPA, BFCA
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Major Threats
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) BFCA
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) IPA, BFCA, FI
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) LAFCA
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Possibilities
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) FI
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom) FI
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Gus Van Sant (The Promised Land)
BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) NBR, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
John Hawkes (The Sessions) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Denzel Washington (Flight) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Richard Gere (Arbitrage) HFPA
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Jack Black (Bernie) HFPA, FI
Possibilities
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables) IPA
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson) HFPA
BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Naomi Watts (The Impossible) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) HFPA, SAG
Major Threats
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) BFCA
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, IPA, BFCA
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) NYFCC, HFPA
Maggie Smith (Quartet) HFPA
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina) IPA
Possibilities
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) HFPA
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs) HFPA
Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) FI
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed) FI
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) IPA, SAG, BFCA
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Alan Arkin (Argo) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Javier Bardem (Skyfall) IPA, SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
John Goodman (Flight) IPA
John Goodman (Argo)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) HFPA
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) NBR, HFPA
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) NYFCC, BFCA, FI
Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables) IPA
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild) LAFCA
Possibilities
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch) FI
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Sally Field (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Helen Hunt (The Sessions) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Amy Adams (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Ann Dowd (Compliance) NBR, BFCA, FI
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) HFPA, SAG
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) SAG
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (Skyfall) IPA, BFCA
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables) IPA
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner) NYFCC, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Argo (Chris Terrio) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee) IPA, BFCA
Major Threats
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin) IPA
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Bernie (Richard Linklater)
Possibilities
Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky) BFCA
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Amour (Michael Haneke) BFCA
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson) IPA, BFCA
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) HFPA, BFCA
Looper (Rian Johnson) NBR, DCAC, BFCA
Major Threats
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson) IPA, BFCA, FI
Flight (John Gatins) IPA, BFCA
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh) FI
Possibilities
The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache) IPA
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer) NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer) NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer) DCAC, BFCA
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer) IPA, BFCA
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer) HFPA
Possibilities
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
The Rabbi’s Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer) NBR, IPA, BFCA
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip) LAFCA, IPA
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer) BSFC, FI
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer) IPA
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer) DCAC, BFCA
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) IPA
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer) BFCA
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer) FI
Possibilities
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer) FI
This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer)
Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria, Amour NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
France, The Intouchables IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Denmark, A Royal Affair IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Israel, Fill the Void
Switzerland, Sister FI
Major Threats
Norway, Kon-Tiki IPA, HFPA
Romania, Beyond the Hills IPA
Canada, War Witch IPA, FI
South Korea, Pieta IPA
Iceland, The Deep
Germany, Barbara
Chile, No
Australia, Lore
Belgium, Our Children IPA
Italy, Caesar Must Die IPA
Spain, Blancnieves
Philippines, Bwakaw
Possibilities
Netherlands, Kauwboy
Japan, Our Homeland
Mexico, After Lucia
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Children of Sarajevo
Hungary, Just the Wind
Colombia, The Snitch Cartel
Bulgaria, Sneakers
Greece, Unfair World
Portugal, Blood of My Blood
Serbia, When Day Breaks
Morocco, Death for Sale
Sweden, The Hypnotist
Czech Republic, In the Shadow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
Life of Pi NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BFCA
The Master BSFC, IPA, BFCA
Lincoln IPA, BFCA
Skyfall LAFCA, IPA, BFCA
Zero Dark Thirty NYFCC
Major Threats
Beasts of the Southern Wild IPA, FI
Anna Karenina IPA
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables BFCA
Moonrise Kingdom FI
Possibilities
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Argo
Samsara
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA
Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA
Les Miserables IPA, BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Snow White and the Huntsman IPA
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
A Royal Affair IPA
Django Unchained
Mirror Mirror
The Dark Knight Rises
Possibilities
Argo
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Prometheus
BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty LAFCA, IPA, BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Argo BFCA
Les Miserables IPA, BFCA
The Master
Major Threats
Life of Pi BFCA
Silver Linings Playbook IPA
Cloud Atlas IPA
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Impossible
Possibilities
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Bourne Legacy
Flight IPA
Moonrise Kingdom
Samsara
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Men in Black 3
Major Threats
Les Miserables BFCA
Hitchcock
Looper
Snow White and the Huntsman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
Lincoln (John Williams) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
The Master (Johnny Greenwood) DCAC, IPA, BFCA
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna) HFPA, BFCA
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin) LAFCA, DCAC, IPA
Argo (Alexandre Desplat) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli) IPA, HFPA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Skyfall (Thomas Newman) IPA
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer) HFPA
Possibilities
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA
Les Miserables IPA, BFCA
Lincoln IPA, BFCA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Life of Pi BFCA
Cloud Atlas DCAC
The Master LAFCA, IPA
Argo
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises IPA
Possibilities
Skyfall
Beasts of the Southern Wild
A Royal Affair IPA
Moonrise Kingdom
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prometheus
Flight
BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables IPA
Skyfall
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Life of Pi IPA
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight IPA
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables IPA
Skyfall
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Life of Pi IPA
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
Life of Pi IPA, BFCA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA
The Dark Knight Rises IPA, BFCA
Skyfall IPA
Major Threats
The Avengers BFCA
The Amazing Spider-Man
Snow White & the Huntsman
Possibilities
Prometheus IPA
John Carter
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney)
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.)
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art)
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions)
Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’ (Gracie Films)
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
Dripped (ChezEddy)
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)
* * *
KEY
Contenders’ names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).
ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (TBA)
AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)
ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (TBA)
ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)
BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (TBA)
BFCA = 18th Critics’ Choice Awards (TBA)
BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)
CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (TBA)
CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)
DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)
DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)
FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards
HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)
IAFA = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)
IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)
LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)
MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)
NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)
NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)
NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)
NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)
PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (TBA)
SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (TBA)
USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)
VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (TBA)
WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (TBA)
* * *
ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE “FEINBERG FORECAST”
Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry’s most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world’s best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).
Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).
