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And how did this reversal of fortune happen? Blogger and Gurus o’Gold poll impresario David Poland explains, “It was always, in spite of a great run of wins by Melissa [Leo], a category with wiggle room. Hailee is a lead in a supporting category, the movie is a big hit.” I’ll say: True Grit‘s worldwide gross is now $176 million, which is $131 million more than Joel Coen told me he expected it to make.
“And she holds her own with some heavyweights,” says Poland — who cautions that Steinfeld certainly shouldn’t break out the champagne yet (and not just because she’s too young to drink). “Melissa’s performance still gets a lot of talk. Really, it could go any of the three ways.” He means Hailee Steinfeld, Melissa Leo, or Helena Bonham Carter. “And that was 95% as true before ‘The Ads’ [Leo’s controversial glamour ads]. That controversy just woke a hungry media from its slumber over a seemingly preordained season.”
And the least preordained categories of all may be the actress categories.
Follow THR’s The Race Awards blog on Twitter: @timappelo.
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