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Social media such as Facebook and Twitter have proved handy — if scientifically iffy — tools for tracking advance movie buzz. Now, a new study out of Hungary finds that Wikipedia could prove equally if not more valuable than those other sites in predicting box-office performance.
The study — undertaken at Budapest University of Technology and Economics and posted this week online — says that by examining patterns of behavior on the communal encyclopedia, Hollywood execs can predict how a movie will perform up to a month before its release.
Examining 312 movies released in 2010, researchers considered a number of factors: page views, number of edits and editors to a film’s entr and a third, more mysterious element they call “the collaborative rigor.”
Graphing that data against the movies’ financial performance offered compelling evidence of a direct correlation between Wikipedia “heat” and box-office take — with accuracy rates between 77 percent and 90 percent.
But hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. The study only applies to data retroactively; it doesn’t apply the model to films that have yet to hit theaters.
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