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If America got to choose, it would be Leonardo DiCaprio holding an Oscar on Sunday Night.
The Wolf of Wall Street star is a clear social media favorite in the best actor category, according to the Adobe Digital Index.
Adobe, probably best known for its media software, also has a dedicated digital marketing team that mines data from Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, YouTube and other social channels to measure the social buzz around pop culture events.
This year the Adobe team analyzed 1.8 million social mentions to predict who is generating the most buzz ahead of the Oscars.
Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst for Adobe Digital Index, says her team’s analysis has been helpful in predicting box-office returns. This is the first year they’ve tried to predict the Oscars.
“When we look at social buzz it really does start to tell us what America’s vote is,” she says.
DiCaprio averaged more than 14,000 mentions a day between Jan. 17 an Feb. 27 and had a total of 575,000 Oscar-related social mentions, clearly topping best actor critical favorite Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), who had just short of 29,000 mentions during that same period.
In the best actress category, Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) has a growing lead over Meryl Streep (August: Osage County), who has been losing ground after leading the social buzz earlier in the week. Blanchett’s total social mentions have topped 53,500 while Streep’s hover above 35,400.
While critics almost unanimously expect 12 Years a Slave to take home the Oscar on Sunday, Adobe finds that Americans are rooting for Gravity, which is leading with 69,600 social mentions. The Steve McQueen drama is in a close race for second with 57,500 mentions, up less than 4,000 from American Hustle’s 53,300 mentions.
“What’s interesting about 12 Years is that was the Golden Globe winner,” says Gaffney. “It’s one of those things where we think it’ll overtake Gravity. It looks like it will have a bigger impact. “
Adobe won’t know until Sunday night how accurate its predictions are. But how does it stack up against other tech-fueled Oscar predictions?
Exponential, an advertising intelligence and digital media solutions provider, has predicted that 12 Years a Slave will take home the top award of the night.
The firm arrived at this prediction by looking at an audience segment similar to the demographics of the Academy. It was then able to rule out certain films based on the preferences that the audience displayed.
Exponential has a good track record in predicting the winner. Last year, its first year to analyze the Oscars, it accurately predicted that Argo would take home the statue.
Morning Dailies, an online news feed of important entertainment industry headlines, has also made some predictions. Using more than 10,000 articles and 60,000 social media posts, the startup also says that 12 Years a Slave will come out on top.
Here are the Morning Dailies predictions for the other major categories: