Box-Office Preview: How Far Will 'Solo' Drop in Post-Memorial Day Weekend?

Solo A Star Wars Story Still 13 - Publicity - H 2018
Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Solo: A Star Wars Story 

A trio of smaller films open opposite the 'Star Wars' spinoff and 'Deadpool 2' — Shailene Woodley's lost-at-sea drama 'Adrift,' Johnny Knoxville comedy 'Action Point' and genre pic 'Upgrade.'

May tentpoles Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 will easily dominate what's expected to be a quiet post-Memorial Day box office.

All eyes will be on Solo to see how the tentpole fares in its second weekend following a lackluster debut domestically. From Disney and Lucasfilm, the stand-alone debuted to $84.4 million for the three-day Memorial Day weekend and $103 million for the four days.

Fox's Deadpool 2, starring Ryan Reynolds, heads into its third weekend with a domestic total of nearly $225 million (through Tuesday) and more than $500 million globally.

Box-office observers expect Solo to gross north of $60 million for the weekend at the global box office, including in the mid-$30 million range domestically.

The Deadpool sequel is tipped to earn another $20 million-plus in North America.

If tracking is correct, none of the three smaller films opening nationwide this weekend will come close to matching Solo or Deadpool 2.

STXfilms and Lakeshore's romantic survival adventure Adrift could fare the best of the trio with a launch in the $10 million-$13 million range. The film stars Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin as two young lovers and veteran sailors who experience one of the worst hurricanes in recent history. In the aftermath of the storm, Woodley's character must use her smarts and strength to save both herself and her boyfriend when he is left badly injured.

Johnny Knoxville returns to the big screen this weekend in Action Point, an R-rated ensemble comedy from Paramount which is only expected to earn $4 million to $7 million in its domestic bow. (The movie is counting on younger males.) Directed by Tim Kirkby, the $19 million film also stars Chris Pontius, Dan Bakkedahl, Matt Schulze, Eleanor Worthington-Cox, Johnny Pemberton, Brigette Lundy-Paine, Joshua Hoover, Conner McVicker and Eric Manaka.

In the pic, Knoxville plays D.C., the crackpot owner of a low-rent, out-of-control amusement park where the rides are designed with minimum safety for maximum fun. Just as D.C.'s estranged teenage daughter, Boogie, comes to visit, a corporate mega-park opens nearby and jeopardizes the future of Action Point.

The third new nationwide offering is Upgrade, the latest offering from Blumhouse's BH Tilt alongside Goalpost Pictures and Automatic Entertainment. Directed by Leigh Whannel, the R-rated action-thriller is tracking to open in the $3 million-$4 million range. (It is targeting younger men as well.)

Set in the near future, Upgrade centers around a technophobe who is paralyzed in a freak mugging. Later, he is seemingly cured when implanted with an experimental chip. Logan Marshall-Green, Betty Gabriel, Harrison Gilbertson, Simon Maiden and Benedict Hardie star.

June 1, 9:30 a.m. Updated with revised weekend estimates.