Box Office Preview: 'One Direction' Concert Doc Likely Labor Day Weekend Winner

Sony Pictures
"One Direction: This Is Us"

Prospects are dim for Eric Bana's thriller "Closed Circuit" and Dark Castle's "Getaway," starring Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez; Wong Kar-wai's "The Grandmaster" expands into nearly 750 theaters.

Benefiting from the fan frenzy that surrounds the British boy band, concert documentary One Direction: This Is Us should top the long Labor Day holiday weekend, ringing out a record-breaking summer at the domestic box office despite a number of big-budget misses.

Box office observers expect One Direction to earn around $20 million in its four-day debut, easily besting the dismal $7.2 million debut of the Katy Perry concert doc Part of Me in July 2012.

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This weekend's other newcomers -- Closed Circuit with Eric Bana and Getaway, starring Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez
-- face grim prospects. Opening Wednesday,
Aug. 28, Closed Circuit appears D.O.A., earning only $248,704 in its first two days.

From Working Title Films and released by Focus Features in the U.S., Closed Circuit was directed by John Crowley from a script by Steven Knight. Playing in only 862 theaters, the movie should earn an estimated $2 million for the six days. The rated-R crime thriller stars Bana and Rebecca Hall as attorneys working on a high profile case involving a Muslim man accused of setting off a bomb in London. The British thriller has a 41 percent positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Getaway, directed by Courtney Solomon, is likely to open to a soft $6 or $7 million after receiving weak reviews (the film currently has a 3 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes). The PG-13 film marks the final Dark Castle Entertainment title to be released by Warner Bros., as Joel Silver's production company commences its new deal with Universal. The movie follows a man (Hawke) and his passenger (Spring Breakers star Gomez) who are forced to drive around under the instructions of a person (Jon Voight) who is holding the man's wife hostage. The film is opening in 2,000 theaters.

Also opening this weekend is the Spanish-language comedy Instructions Not Included. Pantelion and Lionsgate are targeting Hispanic adults and will release the film in 347 North American theaters. It should earn around $2 million.

One Direction's main competition is likely to be third week holdover Lee Daniels' The Butler. The Weinstein Co. film held the No. 1 spot the previous two weekends, and has earned $55.7 million domestically to date. Starring Forest Whitaker and Oprah Winfrey, the film could earn another $14 to $15 million this weekend.

STORY: Morgan Spurlock Joins the Supersized World of One Direction for Concert Doc 'This Is Us'

Super Size Me doc filmmaker Morgan Spurlock directs Sony's 3D concert film about the British pop band comprising Niall Horan, Zayn Malik, Liam Payne, Harry Styles and Louis Tomlinson. The PG film, opening in more than 2,500 theaters, is produced by Spurlock and Simon Cowell, who first assembled the boy band after the musicians appeared as solo acts on the U.K.'s The X Factor. The film is rolling out in much of the world this weekend.

Miley Cyrus' Hannah Montana concert film Best of Both Worlds currently holds the record for the top concert film at the domestic box office. It earned  $31 million in February 2008. Justin Bieber's concert doc Never Say Never opened in February 2011, earning
$29.5 million its opening weekend. 

At the specialty box office, Wong Kar-wai's martial arts epic The Grandmaster makes an aggressive push after opening in New York, Los Angeles and Toronto last weekend. The movie, from the Weinstein Co., will be playing in nearly 750 theaters Friday, Aug. 30.

Specialty openers include Afternoon Delight, starring Kathryn Hahn and Juno Temple; Brian De Palma's erotic thriller Passion, starring Rachel McAdams; and the Kristen Bell–starrer The Lifeguard.

Twitter: @Beccamford