Disney+ to Reach 126M Subscribers by 2025, Study Forecasts

Mandalorian Still 3 - Courtesy Disney+ - Publicity-H 2019
Courtesy of Disney+

"Disney+ will be the biggest SVOD winner over the next five years" and reach 53 percent of Netflix’s estimated user base, predicts Digital TV Research.

Disney+ will reach 126 million subscribers worldwide by 2025 to reach 53 percent of Netflix’s nearly 238 million then, Digital TV Research analyst Simon Murray forecast in a Thursday report.

Following Disney’s Tuesday earnings report that exceeded subscriber estimates for Disney+, whose original programming includes The Mandalorian, with 28.6 million as of early February, Digital TV Research upgraded its forecast, which originally had called for 101 million subscribers by 2025.

“Disney+ will be the biggest SVOD winner over the next five years,” and will rank only behind Netflix and Amazon, the firm predicted in a report, highlighting its estimate for 105 million additions by 2025. It expects the Disney+ user base to reach 40.7 million at the end of 2019.

"Much of this initial growth will come from the U.S., principally due to the attractive bundling of Disney+ with ESPN+ and Hulu," said Murray. "ESPN+ and Hulu are not yet available outside the U.S., but we still expect strong Disney+ take-up globally.”

Five global streaming platforms will have 553 million paying SVOD subscribers by 2025, adding 196 million between 2020 and 2025, Murray projects.

Netflix will end 2020 with more than 186 million users and gain 51 million subscribers between 2020 and 2025, “revealing that there is still growth left for the most established platform,” Murray wrote. “Netflix will command 44 percent of the 2025 total for the five platforms; down from 53 percent in 2020.”

HBO Max will have more than 17 million paying subscribers by year-end 2020 and 30 million by 2025, he said, adding that "if non-payers are included, then this figure could be tripled." The same is true for Apple TV+, which Digital TV Research forecasts will have 26 million paying subscribers by 2025 after reaching nearly 2.9 million this year.