E-books, educational spending to improve global publishing


The rapid growth of electronic book publishing, combined with digital search capabilities and increased funding for educational books, will help the worldwide book publishing market achieve sales of $130.5 billion in 2010 at a 2.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' "Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2006-2010."

The report defines the book publishing market as consisting of retail spending by consumers on consumer books; spending by schools, government agencies, and students on elementary, high school, and college textbooks, including graduate textbooks; and retail spending on professional books.

EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), which at $48.4 billion in 2005 was the world's most dominant in the book publishing market, will maintain that position, totaling a projected $53.9 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 2.2%. Asia Pacific's market, which totaled $22.7 billion in 2005, will be the world's fastest-growing region, reaching $28.6 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 4.8%. The United States will rise by a 2.7% CAGR to $41.2 billion, while Latin America will increase by a 2.6% CAGR to $4.8 billion and Canada will rise by a 3.8% CAGR to nearly $2 billion.

The 2005 release of the sixth installment of the Harry Potter series, "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," was significant in most territories. It sold 13.5 million copies in the U.S.; excluding juvenile trade, which jumped 35.2% in 2005, consumer book spending in the U.S. actually declined by 0.1%. Similarly, "Prince" helped the consumer book markets in EMEA and in Canada post increases of 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in 2005. On the other hand, Asia Pacific's consumer book market rose by just 1.9% in 2005, down from a 3.7% increase in 2004. A key reason for that slowdown was a 0.9% decrease in Japan, which reflects the fact that the "Potter" cycle occurs approximately a year later than in other countries.

The seventh, and purported final, "Potter" book is expected to be released in 2007, which will provide another boost to the market that year.

Consumer books will increase at a 2.5% CAGR in EMEA, rising from $28.4 billion in 2005 to $32 billion in 2010. Educational books will increase from $13.9 billion to $14.7 billion, while the professional book market will fall at a 0.9% CAGR to $5.8 billion in 2010 from $6 billion in 2005. Total spending on print books in all three categories will grow by a 1.7% CAGR to reach $52.5 billion in 2010, with the electronic book market rising at a 72.7% CAGR to $1.4 billion in 2010.

While the print book market in Western Europe will rise to $46.8 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 1.6%, Central and Eastern Europe will be the fastest-growing sub-region, rising at a CAGR of 3.1% to $4 billion. Germany will remain the region's largest book market, reaching $10.9 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 0.6%.

In the U.S., consumer books will increase from $19.8 billion in 2005 to $21.5 billion in 2010, a 1.7% CAGR increase. Increased funding will fuel school textbook spending, with elementary and high school textbook spending rising to $5.8 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 4%, while college textbook spending -- aided by rising enrollment -- will expand to $6.3 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 4.5%. The professional book market, increasingly migrating to electronic formats, will decline at a 2.3% CAGR to $5.2 billion in 2010.

Total print sales in the U.S. will rise from $35.4 billion in 2005 to $38.7 billion in 2010, at a CAGR of 1.8%, while spending on electronic books will rise from $725 million in 2005 to $2.5 billion in 2010, at a CAGR of 28.1%.

For Asia Pacific, consumer books will rise at a 4.1% CAGR to $13.3 billion in 2010. Increased focus on education will stimulate the educational book market, but declining enrollment in some countries will limit growth; as a result, educational books will rise at a 3.2% CAGR to $9.4 billion in 2010. Improved economic conditions will boost the professional book market in the near term, but migration to electronic books will reduce print spending during 2009-10; overall, professional books will rise at a 0.5% CAGR to $3.4 billion in 2010. Electronic books will total $2.5 billion in 2010 and constitute 8.6% of the region's total book publishing market by 2010.

Latin America will benefit from improved economic conditions but continues to be hampered by low readership levels and piracy. Consumer books will grow to $1.8 billion in 2010 at a CAGR of 1.9%, with educational books rising to $2.2 billion at a CAGR of 2.7% and the professional market expanding to $676 million at a CAGR of 4.4%.

In Canada, consumer books will increase to $937 million at a CAGR of 2.6%, while educational books -- spurred by rising college enrollments and increased school spending -- will rise to $624 million at a CAGR of 3.9%, and the professional book market will rise to $292 million at a CAGR of 0.9%.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2006-2010 is the leading global entertainment and media industry forecast, including in-depth global analyses and five-year growth projections for 14 industry segments covering every major global region. The complete 632-page book, which includes a "Global Overview" can be purchased for US$995. The 50-page "Global Overview" can be purchased separately for US$95; individual chapters can also be purchased separately in electronic format for US$95.

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