FEINBERG FORECAST: How Oscar Noms, Critics’ Choice Change the Race

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter‘s lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated “Feinberg Forecast,” wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape this one and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as an acronyms key, scroll to the bottom of this post.

PHOTOS: Oscar Nominees’ Most Colorful Reactions

This week’s major developments:

The Academy announced its 86th Oscar nominations. (Here’s my analysis of their picks, list of some fun facts and shocking stats pertaining to them and summary of their biggest source of controversy.)
The Broadcast Film Critics Association held the 19th Critics’ Choice Awards on Thursday. (Here’s my recap of the show and analysis of the results.)
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association held the 69th Golden Globe Awards on Sunday. (Here’s my three main takeaways from the show and analysis of the results.)
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts held its annual BAFTA Tea on Saturday. (Here’s my recap of the event.)
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association held the 39th LAFCA Awards on Saturday. (Here’s my recap of the show and analysis of the results.)
Walt Disney‘s grandniece agreed with the controversial comments about him that Meryl Streep made at the National Board of Review.

Without further ado, here is the forecast…

BEST PICTURE
Nominees
1. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
HFPA, BFCA, AFI, BSFC, TIFF, IFP, PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, FI, ACE, ADG, ASC, CDG
2. Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, BFCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, VES
3. American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
AFI, NYFCC, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, CDG
4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ADG
5. Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA , BFCA, PGA, WGA, FI, ACE, ASC, CDG
6. Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, VES
7. Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
HFPA, BAFTA, FI, CDG
8. Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
BFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, CDG
9. Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
AFI, NBR, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, BFCA, PGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, CDG

PHOTOS: Todd McCarthy’s 10 Best Films of 2013

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) HFPA, BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO, DGA, BAFTA
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA, FI
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Nominees
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) HFPA, BFCA, IFP, HFA, SAG, FI
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) HFPA, BAFTA
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) BSFC, NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA, IFP, SAG, BAFTA, FI
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska) NBR, LAFCA, CAN, HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA, FI
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA

PHOTOS: Oscar Nominees

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Nominees
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) HFPA, BFCA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NSFC, BSFC, NYFCO, IFP, SAG, BAFTA, FI
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle) HFPA, BAFTA
3. Judi Dench (Philomena) HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) HFA, HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) HFPA, BFCA, SAG

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) HFPA, BFCA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NYFCO, SAG, FI
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
3. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA

PHOTOS: Golden Globes 2014: Red-Carpet Arrivals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
1. Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO, HFPA, SAG, BAFTA, FI
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) HFPA, NYFCC, NSFC, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. June Squibb (Nebraska) BSFC, BFCA, HFPA, SAG, FI
4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) HFA, BFCA, HFPA, SAG, BAFTA
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) HFPA, BAFTA, FI

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, USC, FI, SC
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) NBR, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA, SC
3. Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, USC, SC
4. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater) LAFCA, NSFC, HFA, BFCA, WGA, FI, SC
5. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) BFCA, WGA, BAFTA, USC, SC

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees
1. American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer) NYFCC, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA
2. Her (Spike Jonze) BFCA, HFPA, NYFCO, WGA, SC
3. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) BFCA, WGA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI, SC
4. Nebraska (Bob Nelson) HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA, SC
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack) WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees
1. Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, IAFS, ACE, MPSE, VES
2. The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IAFS
3. The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, IAFS, MPSE, VES
4. Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, IAFS, ACE, MPSE, VES
5. Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) LAFCA, IAFS, MPSE

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees
1. 20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, FI, ACE, MPSE
2. The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer) CEH, IFP, NSFC, EFA, NYFCO, BSFC, BFCA, IDA, BAFTA, DGA, FI
3. The Square (Noujaim Films/Netflix Originals/Participant, 10/25, NR, TBA) IDA, DGA, FI
4. Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer) CEH, DGA
5. Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer) WGA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Projected Nominees
1. Italy (The Great Beauty) HFPA, EFA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Denmark (The Hunt) HFPA, BFCA, FI
3. Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
4. Palestine (Omar)
5. Cambodia (The Missing Picture)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Projected Nominees
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki) BFCA, LAFCA, BSFC, BFCA, ASC, BAFTA, IPA
2. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael) BFCA, ASC, BAFTA
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel) NYFCC, NSFC, BFCA, ASC, BAFTA, FI, IPA
3. Prisoners (Roger Deakins) BFCA, ASC, IPA
5. The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd) ASC

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Projected Nominees
1. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin) BFCA, CDG, BAFTA
2. 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris) BFCA, CDG, BAFTA
3. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson) BFCA, CDG, BAFTA
4. The Invisible Woman (Michael O’Connor) BAFTA
5. The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)

BEST FILM EDITING
Projected Nominees
1. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse) BFCA, ACE, BAFTA
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger) BFCA, LAFCA, ACE, BAFTA, IPA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker) BFCA, ACE, BAFTA, IPA
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers) BFCA, ACE, IPA
5. Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee], Martin Pensa)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Projected Nominees
1. Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews) MUHS
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty) MUHS
3. The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny) MUHS

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees
1. Gravity (Steven Price) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
2. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman) BFCA, BAFTA
4. The Book Thief (John Williams) HFPA, BAFTA
5. Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees
1. “Let It Go” from Frozen (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez) HFPA, BFCA
2. “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (U2) HFPA, BFCA
3. “Happy” from Despicable Me 2 (Pharrell Williams) BFCA
4. “The Moon Song” from Her (Karen O, Spike Jonze)
5. “Alone Yet Not Alone” from Alone Yet Not Alone (Bruce Broughton, Dennis Spiegel)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Projected Nominees
1. The Great Gatsby (Beverly Dunn, Catherine Martin) BFCA, ADG, BAFTA, IPA
2. Gravity (Rosie Goodwin, Andy Nicholson) BFCA, ADG, BAFTA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Alice Baker, Adam Stochausen) BFCA, ADG, BAFTA
4. Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena) LAFCA, BFCA, ADG
5. American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler) ADG

BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees
1. Gravity (Glenn Freemantle) MPSE, BAFTA
2. Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney) MPSE, BAFTA
3. Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman) MPSE
4. All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns) MPSE, BAFTA
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge) MPSE

BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees
1. Gravity (Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Skip Lievsay, Chris Munro) CAS, BAFTA
2. Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor) CAS, BAFTA
3. Lone Survivor (Beau Borders, David Brownlow, Andy Koyama) CAS
4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff) CAS, BAFTA
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Tony Johnson, Michael Semanick)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees
1. Gravity (Neil Corbould, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Tim Webber) BFCA, VES, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (David Clayton, Joe Letteri, Eric Reynolds, Eric Saindon) BFCA, VES, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Iron Man 3 (Erik Nash, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams) BFCA, VES, BAFTA
4. Star Trek Into Darkness (Burt Dalton, Ben Grossman, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach) BFCA, VES, BAFTA
5. The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, John Frazier, Edson Williams)

The shorts categories will be added soon.

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Key

Contenders’ names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 64th Eddie Awards

ADG = 18th Art Directors Guild Awards

AFI = 14th American Film Institute Awards

ASC = 28th American Society of Cinematographers Awards

BAFTA = 67th British Academy Film Awards

BFCA = 19th Critics’ Choice Movie Awards

BSFC = 34th Boston Society of Film Critics Awards

BIFA = 16th British Independent Film Awards

CAN = 66th Cannes Film Festival

CAS = 50th Cinema Audio Society Awards

CDG = 16th Costume Design Guild Awards

CEH = 7th Cinema Eye Honors