FEINBERG FORECAST: How the Oscar Race Is Shaping Up During New York Film Fest

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2015, The Hollywood Reporter‘s lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated “Feinberg Forecast,” wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week’s Feinberg Forecast …

• The New York Film Festival screenings of Gone Girl, Maps to the Stars and Whiplash, among others
• The official entries of dozens of foreign-language films by countries around the world as the Oct. 1 submission deadline nears, most notably Leviathan by Russia
• The announcement that A Most Violent Year will open the AFI Fest on Nov. 6
• The acquisition of The Humbling, a possible awards vehicle for Al Pacino and Greta Gerwig, by Millennium Entertainment
• The newly released trailers of Mommy and The Tales of Princess Kaguya
• The nationwide theatrical debuts of The Equalizer and The Boxtrolls and the limited art-house debut of Pride, among others
• Promotional events on behalf of Birdman and Chef

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Paramount)
Unbroken (Universal)
Boyhood (IFC Films)
The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)
The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)
American Sniper (Warner Bros.)
Birdman (Fox Searchlight)
Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)
Into the Woods (Disney)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Selma (Paramount)
Wild (Fox Searchlight)
Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight)
A Most Violent Year (A24)
Possibilities
Chef (Open Road Films)
Fury (Sony)
Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.)
Get On Up (Universal)
Still Alice (Sony Pictures Classics)
Long Shots
The Judge (Warner Bros.)
Big Eyes (The Weinstein Co.)
Dear White People (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)
Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
Major Threats
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Possibilities
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Long Shots
J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)
David Ayer (Fury)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild)
Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Jack O’Connell (Unbroken)
Major Threats
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
Possibilities
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
James Corden (Into the Woods) NEW
Long Shots
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Judge)
Al Pacino (The Humbling) NEW
Chris Rock (Top Five) NEW
Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings)
Tom Hardy (Locke)
Andre Benjamin (Jimi: All Is by My Side)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Kevin Costner (Black and White)
Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar) NEW
Possibilities
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them)
Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Greta Gerwig (The Humbling) NEW
Long Shots
Anne Dorval (Mommy)
Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years)
Nicole Kidman (Queen of the Desert)
Mia Wasikowska (Tracks)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle) NEW
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Julie)
Jennifer Connelly (Shelter)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Major Threats
Miyavi (Unbroken)
Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)
Possibilities
Logan Lerman (Fury)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)
Michael Caine (Interstellar) NEW
John Goodman (The Gambler)
Long Shots
Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
Chris Pine (Into the Woods)
Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken)
Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost)
Benicio Del Toro (Inherent Vice)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Laura Dern (Wild)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
Carmen Ejogo (Selma)
Possibilities
Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)
Sienna Miller (American Sniper)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Ellen Burstyn (Interstellar) NEW
Long Shots
Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher)
Jena Malone (Inherent Vice)
Kristen Stewart (Still Alice)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Adriana Barraza (Cake)
Octavia Spencer (Black and White)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Unbroken (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
American Sniper (Jason Dean Hall)
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)
Into the Woods (James Lapine)
Wild (Nick Hornby)
Possibilities
The Fault in Our Stars (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Men, Women & Children (Jason Reitman, Erin Cressida Wilson)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)
Long Shots
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Birdman (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giabone, Alejandro G. Inarritu)
Interstellar (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Major Threats
Foxcatcher (Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Wild Tales (Damian Szifron)
Selma (Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb)
A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)
Possibilities
Magic in the Moonlight (Woody Allen)
Chef (Jon Favreau)
Fury (David Ayer)
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
Big Eyes (Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski)
Long Shots
Love Is Strange (Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias)
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
Begin Again (John Carney)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The LEGO Movie (Warner Bros.)
Big Hero 6 (Disney)
Song of the Sea (GKIDS)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (GKIDS/Studio Ghibli)
Major Threats
The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Rio 2 (20th Century Fox)
Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney)
The Book of Life (20th Century Fox)
Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The Penguins of Madagascar (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
Possibilities
Henry & Me (Reveal Animation Studios)
The Boy and the World (GKIDS)
The Pirate Fairy (Disney)
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli)
The Nut Job (Open Road Films/ReelD)
Postman Pat: The Movie (Shout! Factory)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return (Clarius Entertainment)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
Life Itself (Magnolia)
CITIZENFOUR (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO)
Keep on Keepin’ On (RADiUS-TWC)
Red Army (Sony Pictures Classics)
Finding Vivian Mayer (IFC Films)
Major Threats
Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (Area 23a)
The Case Against 8 (HBO Documentary Films)
The Salt of the Earth (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Great Invisible (RADiUS-TWC)
Whitey: United States of America vs. James J. Bulger (Magnolia)
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (RADiUS-TWC)
An Open Secret (self-distributed)
Tales of the Grim Sleeper (HBO)
The Overnighters (Drafthouse Films)
Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Possibilities
Rich Hill (The Orchard)
Point and Shoot (The Orchard)
Fed Up (RADiUS-TWC)
Anita (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Dancing in Jaffa (Sundance Selects)
The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (Zeitgeist Films)
Documented (CNN Films)
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me (IFC Films)
Jodorowsky’s Dune (Sony Pictures Classics)
Warsaw Uprising: The Film (self-distributed)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Happy Valley

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (*submission-dependent)
Frontrunners
Wild Tales (Argentina)*
Ida (Poland)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)
Mommy (Canada)
Major Threats
Leviathan (Russia)
Human Capital (Italy) NEW
Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Accused (Netherlands) NEW
1001 Grams (Norway) NEW
White God (Hungary)
Saint Laurent (France)
Gett: The Trail of Viviane Amsalem (Israel) NEW
Possibilities
Coming Home (China)*
The Liberator (Venezuela) NEW
Sorrow and Joy (Denmark) NEW
The Way He Looks (Brazil)
Living Is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain) NEW
Beloved Sisters (Germany) NEW
The Light Shines Only There (Japan) NEW
What Now? (Portugal)
Cantinflas (Mexico)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Unbroken (Roger Deakins)
Inherent Vice (Robert Elswit)
The Theory of Everything (Benoit Delhomme)
Major Threats
The Imitation Game (Oscar Faura)
American Sniper (Tom Stern)
Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
Gone Girl (Jeff Cronenweth)
Nightcrawler (Robert Elswit)
Into the Woods (Dion Beebe)
Wild (Yves Belanger)
The Homesman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Possibilities
A Most Violent Year (Bradford Young)
Fury (Roman Vasyanov)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
Boyhood (Lee Daniel, Shane Kelly)
Foxcatcher (Greig Fraser)
Selma (Bradford Young)
Tracks (Mandy Walker)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Dariusz Wolski)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Maleficent (Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard)
Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)
Big Eyes (Colleen Atwood)
Major Threats
Noah (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
The Immigrant (Patricia Norris)
The Theory of Everything (Steven Noble)
Selma (Ruth E. Carter)
Get On Up (Sharen Davis)
The Homesman (Lahly Poore)
Grace of Monaco (Gigi Lepage)
Possibilities
Unbroken (Louise Frogley)
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies (Ann Maskrey, Bob Buck)
Interstellar (Mary Zophres)
The Imitation Game (Sammy Sheldon)
Birdman (Albert Wolsky)
Belle (Anushia Nieradzik)
Madame Bovary (Christian Gasc, Valerie Ranchoux)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Janty Yates)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Suffragette (Jane Petrie)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Lee Smith)
Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg)
Unbroken (Tim Squyres)
Birdman (Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione)
Major Threats
American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)
Gone Girl (Kirk Baxter)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy, Stan Salfas)
Wild (Martin Pensa, John McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee])
The Theory of Everything (Jinx Godfrey)
Foxcatcher (Jay Cassidy, Stuart Levy, Conor O’Neill)
Selma (Spencer Averick)
Fury (Dody Dorn)
Possibilities
Inherent Vice (Leslie Jones)
Into the Woods (Wyatt Smith)
A Most Violent Year (Ron Patane)
Whiplash (Tom Cross)
Mr. Turner (Jon Gregory)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling)
Edge of Tomorrow (James Herbert)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John K. Carr)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (TBD)
Maleficent (TBD)
Foxcatcher (TBD)
Major Threats
Guardians of the Galaxy (TBD)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TBD)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (TBD)
Get On Up (TBD)
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (TBD)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (TBD)
Possibilities
Unbroken (TBD)
Selma (TBD)
Inherent Vice (TBD)
Noah (TBD)
Mr. Turner (TBD)
Fury (TBD)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Gone Girl (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Major Threats
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John Powell)
Big Eyes (Danny Elfman)
The Homesman (Marco Beltrami)
Fury (Steven Price)
Get On Up (Thomas Newman)
Inherent Vice (Jonny Greenwood)
Possibilities
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
Noah (Clint Mansell)
Foxcatcher (Rob Simonsen)
The Judge (Thomas Newman)
The Hundred-Foot Journey (A.R. Rahman)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Alberto Iglesias)
Maleficent (James Newton Howard)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frontrunners
“Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
“Everything Is Awesome” (The LEGO Movie)
“I’ll Get You What You Want” (Muppets Most Wanted)
“What Is Love” (Rio 2)
“There and Back Again” (The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies)
Major Threats
“Mercy Is” (Noah)
“Let Me In” (The Fault in Our Stars)
“Not About Angels” (The Fault in Our Stars)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Nathan Crowley)
Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner)
Unbroken (Jon Hutman)
Birdman (Kevin Thompson)
The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic)
Major Threats
Inherent Vice (David Crank)
The Theory of Everything (John Paul Kelly)
American Sniper (Charisse Cardenas, James J. Murakami)
Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen)
Fury (Andrew Menzies)
Possibilities
Gone Girl (Donald Graham Burt)
Selma (TBD)
Get On Up (Mark Ricker)
Foxcatcher (Jess Conchor)
Boyhood (Rodney Becker, Gay Studebaker)

* * *

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook‘s Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street‘s Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg