FEINBERG FORECAST: The Post-Governors Awards State of the Race

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter‘s lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated “Feinberg Forecast,” wherein he presents a summary of developments since the last update that helped to shape this one and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

• Box office: The weekend box office was dominated by two films that will not be competing for any major Oscars this year: Disney and Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World remained at No. 1 in its second weekend in release with $38.4 million in sales and, in its first weekend, Universal’s Best Man Holiday, which cost just $17 million to make, exceeded all expectations by grossing $30.6 million. Warner Bros.’ Gravity was the highest-placing Oscar hopeful, claiming the sixth spot in its seventh weekend with a $6.2 million haul. (It also passed the $500 million mark worldwide.) Fox Searchlight’s 12 Years a Slave and Sony’s Captain Phillips finished eighth and ninth by taking in $4.7 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Meanwhile, Paramount’s Nebraska, in its first weekend in limited release — it played in just four locations — had the highest per-theater average by far: an impressive $35,000.

PHOTOS: Governors Awards Arrivals

• Comings and goings: Paramount changed its release plans for Jason Reitman‘s Labor Day. The dramedy was originally set for a platform release beginning on Christmas Day, but will now receive a quick one-week qualifying run starting on Dec. 27 and then open wide on Jan. 31. The general consensus seems to be that the move is an acknowledgment of the film’s limited awards season prospects and an attempt to find a more lucrative box-office window. … The Weinstein Co.’s Philomena will be rated PG-13, not R (as a result of its use of more than the one allowed F-word), after Harvey Weinstein successfully appealed to the MPAA to reconsider its initial decision.

• Announcements: The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that Gravity‘s lead actress Sandra Bullock will receive its Desert Palm Award, Actress, on Jan. 4. … The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that Lee Daniels’ The Butler‘s supporting actress Oprah Winfrey, a part-time resident of Santa Barbara County, will receive its Montecito Award on Feb 5. … The New York Film Critics Circle, always one of the first critics groups to bestow awards, has announced that it will meet to determine its 79th awards on Dec. 3. Rumor has it that Paramount’s The Wolf of Wall Street may not be ready in time to screen for the group’s consideration.

• Precursors: The 27th AFI Fest came to a close with the presentation of its audience and jury awards. Among the honorees were several countries’ submissions for the best foreign language film Oscar: Australia’s The Rocket won the audience award in the World Cinema section and Georgia’s In Bloom was presented with a special jury award for personal storytelling. …The 8th Rome Film Festival came to a close with the presentation of its audience and jury awards. Focus Features’ Dallas Buyers Club won the audience award and jury awards were presented to its lead actor, Matthew McConaughey, Her‘s supporting actress Scarlett Johansson (who voices a computer operating system in the film and never appears onscreen herself) and Out of the Furnace‘s writer-director Scott Cooper for best first/second feature. … The 24th Stockholm International Film Festival came to a close with the presentation of its audience and jury awards. The jury recognized Fox Searchlight’s 12 Years a Slave as best film; The Weinstein Co.’s Fruitvale Station, which was written and directed by Ryan Coogler, as best first film; and Hans Zimmer‘s 12 Years a Slave score for best music.

ANALYSIS: Scott Feinberg Sizes Up the Best Picture Race

• Moments in the spotlight: On Nov. 11, the AFI Fest hosted a special tribute to Nebraska‘s 77-year-old lead actor Bruce Dern, who is seeking his second Oscar nom 35 years after his first, before screening the film. Dern was introduced by admirer Quentin Tarantino and received a standing ovation. … On Nov. 12, following the AFI Fest screening of Lone Survivor, the film’s producer/lead actor Mark Wahlberg spoke out about the lack of importance of the actors’ preparation in comparison to the heroism of the film’s subjects. … On Nov. 13, the AFI Fest hosted the L.A. premiere of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which was attended by director/lead actor Ben Stiller and supporting players including Kristen Wiig, Kathryn Hahn and Sean Penn. According to the AFI, the screening drew the largest audience of the fest. … On Nov. 13, a special screening of Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom at the Academy was introduced by Sidney Poitier and attended by Zindzi Mandela, one of Nelson Mandela‘s daughters. … On Nov. 13, days after the Inside Llewyn Davis soundtrack was released, the team behind the film hosted a T Bone Burnett-coordinated “Special Musical Evening” at Santa Monica’s The Buffalo Club that featured performances of folk music by a wide variety of artists (from Steve Martin to the film’s star Oscar Isaac) and attracted the likes of Barbra Streisand, Norman Lear, Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen. … On Nov. 14, Inside Llewyn Davis supporting actor John Goodman had his handprints and footprints immortalized at the TCL Chinese Theatre. … On Nov. 14, the Cinema Italian Style film festival at Hollywood’s Egyptian Theatre kicked off with a screening of The Great Beauty, Italy’s entry for the best foreign language film Oscar race, after which Paolo Sorrentino, the film’s director, and legendary Italian filmmaker Bernardo Bertolucci were presented with the fest’s Cinema Italian Style Award. … On Nov. 15, Universal’s Ron Meyer, Jeff Shell and Donna Langley hosted a party at Fig & Olive for Despicable Me 2 that featured a performance by Pharrell Williams, a best original song hopeful for the film, and an appearance by one of the film’s voiceover artists, Steve Carell. … On Nov. 16, the Academy’s 5th Governors Awards featured presentations by Captain Phillips‘ lead actor/Saving Mr. Banks‘ supporting actor Tom Hanks, The Book Thief‘s Geoffrey Rush and Saving Mr. Banks‘ lead actress Emma Thompson and strategic appearances by many other 2013 contenders. … On Nov. 17, Focus Features hosted a luncheon at Craft for Dallas Buyers Club lead actor McConaughey, supporting actor Jared Leto and supporting actress Jennifer Garner. … From Nov. 14-17, the AARP’s inaugural Movies for Grownups Film Festival took place at the Regal Cinemas at LA Live, attracting thousands of seniors and students to screenings and Q&As at the unbeatable price of $2.50 a ticket. Among the Oscar hopefuls who participated in post-screening Q&As were 12 Years a Slave‘s director Steve McQueen, lead actor Chiwetel Ejiofor and supporting actresses Lupita Nyong’o and Alfre Woodard (who were approached after their Q&A by a direct descendant of the film’s subject Solomon Northup); Nebraska‘s director Alexander Payne, lead actor Dern and supporting actress June Squibb; Enough Said‘s writer-director Nicole Holofcener and lead actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus; August: Osage County‘s supporting actor Chris Cooper and supporting actress Margo Martindale; The Secret Life of Walter Mitty‘s director/lead actor Oscar hopeful Ben Stiller; Saving Mr. Banks‘ director John Lee Hancock and supporting actor Bradley Whitford; and Labor Day‘s writer-director Jason Reitman (accompanied by author Joyce Maynard). Also in attendance were Philomena‘s subject Philomena Lee and 20 Feet From Stardom‘s subjects Merry Clayton, Julie Waters, Maxine Waters and Oren Waters (all of whom performed).

• Potpourri: On Nov. 11, I interviewed the legendary Italian filmmaker/AFI Fest guest director Bernardo Bertolucci. The transcript of our conversation will appear on this site soon. … On Nov. 11, I attended a memorial service for one of the film industry’s most colorful characters, A.C. Lyles, who worked at Paramount for over 80 years. … On Nov. 11, I posted my interview with Labor Day‘s lead actress Kate Winslet, who was unusually generous with her time and thoughts. … On Nov. 13, I met with Inequality for All director Jacob Kornbluth and subject Robert Reich, the former U.S. secretary of labor. The transcript of our conversation will appear on this site soon. … On Nov. 15, THR exclusively premiered the trailer of Shoah director Claude Lanzmann‘s new Holocaust doc, The Last of the Unjust. … On Nov. 15, I moderated THR‘s first Breakthrough Performers Panel, which featured an hourlong conversation with Captain Phillips‘ supporting actor Barkhad Abdi, Blue Is the Warmest Color‘s Adele Exarchopoulos, Frances Ha‘s lead actress/co-writer Greta Gerwig, Afternoon Delight‘s Kathryn Hahn, Lee Daniels’ The Butler‘s supporting actor David Oyelowo and Drinking Buddies‘ lead actress Olivia Wilde. Footage from that will premiere on this site shortly.

Without further ado, here is the latest forecast …

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer)
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Lee Daniels’ The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, PG-13, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
Enough Said (Fox Searchlight, 9/20, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, R, trailer)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, R, trailer)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Long Shots
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, PG, trailer)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, PG-13, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, R, trailer)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Major Threats
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Possibilities
Stephen Frears (Philomena)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Long Shots
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Ron Howard (Rush)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
Major Threats
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Possibilities
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Long Shots
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings)
Isaiah Washington (Blue Caprice)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Possibilities
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Long Shots
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Scarlett Johansson (Don Jon)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
George Clooney (Gravity)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Harrison Ford (42)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Possibilities
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Woody Harrelson (Out of the Furnace)
David Oyelowo (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Long Shots
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Bobby Cannavale (Blue Jasmine)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Major Threats
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Scarlett Johansson (Her)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Possibilities
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Long Shots
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
Major Threats
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
Possibilities
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
Long Shots
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
Major Threats
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Danny Strong)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron)
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Possibilities
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Short Term 12 (Destin Daniel Cretton)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Frozen (Jennifer Lee, Shane Morris)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Long Shots
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Bethlehem (Yuval Adler, Ali Wakad)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Fake (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
O Apóstolo (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Square (City Drive Entertainment Group, 10/25, NR, TBA)
Tim’s Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Major Threats
American Promise (Rada Film Group, 10/18, NR, trailer)
Let the Fire Burn (Zeitgeist Films, 10/2, NR, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
Casting By (HBO, 11/1, NR, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
The Last of the Unjust (Cohen Media Group, 12/13, NR, trailer) NEW
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Jodorowsky’s Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
The Crash Reel (Phase 4 Films, 7/5, TBA, trailer)
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Gideon’s Army (Trilogy Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Bridegroom (Virgil Films and Entertainment, 10/18, R, trailer) NEW
Seduced and Abandoned (HBO, 10/18, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)
For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Our Nixon (Cinedigm, 8/30, NR, trailer)
First Cousin Once Removed (HBO Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Rising From Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Herblock: The Black & the White (TSC Dist. Services, 8/16, NR, trailer)
Long Shots
Best Kept Secret (Argot Pictures, 9/6, NR, TBA) NEW
12-12-12 Concert (The Weinstein Co., 11/15, R, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Linsanity (Ketchup Entertainment, 10/4, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Running From Crazy (OWN and Vitagraph Films, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
At Berkeley (Zipporah Films, 11/8, TBA, TBA)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Valentine Road (BMP Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Gahan Wilson: Born Dead, Still Weird (6th Avenue Productions, 10/11, TBA, trailer  )
A.K.A. Doc Pomus (TBA, 10/4, TBA,   trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Front-runners
Iran (The Past)
Israel (Bethlehem)
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)
Italy (The Great Beauty)
United Kingdom (Metro Manila)
Major Threats
Denmark (The Hunt)
Palestine (Omar)
France (Renoir)
Turkey (The Butterfly’s Dream)
Australia (The Rocket)
Morocco (Horses of God)
Russia (Stalingrad)
Poland (Walesa)
Chile (Gloria)
Georgia (In Bloom)
Hong Kong (The Grandmaster)
Mexico (Heli)
Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Others, listed alphabetically
Afghanistan (Wajma)
Albania (Agon)
Argentina (Wakolda)
Austria (The Wall)
Azerbaijan (Steppe Man)
Bangladesh (Television)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Brazil (Neighboring Sounds)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon)
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Canada (Gabrielle)
Chad (GriGris)
Colombia (La Playa DC)
Croatia (Halima’s Path)
Czech Republic (The Don Juans)
Dominican Republic (Quien Manda?)
Ecuador (The Porcelain Horse)
Egypt (Winter of Discontent)
Estonia (Free Range)
Finland (The Disciple)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird’s Food)
Hungary (The Notebook)
Iceland (Of Horses and Men)
India (The Good Road)
Indonesia (Sang Kiai)
Japan (The Great Passage)
Kazakhstan (The Old Man)
Latvia (Mother I Love You)
Lebanon (Blind Intersections)
Lithuania (Conversations on Serious Topics)
Luxembourg (Blind Spots)
Moldova (All God’s Children)
Montenegro (Ace of Spades — Bad Destiny)
Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman)
New Zealand (White Lies)
Norway (I Am Yours)
Pakistan (Zinda Bhaag)
Peru (The Cleaner)
Philippines (Transit)
Portugal (Lines of Wellington)
Romania (Child’s Pose)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo)
Slovak Republic (My Dog Killer)
Slovenia (Class Enemy)
South Africa (Four Corners)
South Korea (Juvenile Offender)
Spain (15 Years Plus a Day)
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die)
Switzerland (More Than Honey)
Taiwan (Soul)
Thailand (Countdown)
Ukraine (Parajanov)
Uruguay (Anina)
Venezuela (Breach in the Silence)

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg