FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott’s Final Picks for Tuesday’s 84th Academy Award Nominations

On Tuesday morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will put an end to months of speculation — including plenty by me, as reflected in charts posted on this blog every weekend since September — by announcing its nominees for the 84th Academy Awards. That means that it is now time, for better or worse, for me to man up and lock in my final predictions of what/who those nominees will be.

I urge you to keep in mind that what follows is not necessarily what I feel should happen — that can be better gleaned from reading my year-end top 10 list — but rather what I think will happen, based on months of screenings (I’ve seen all of the likely nominees, many multiple times), observations (of critics, guilds, and other awards-bestowers), and conversations (with pundits and voters).

I have historically done quite well when it comes to forecasting Oscar nominations — for instance, I projected best picture noms for The Reader (2008) and for The Blind Side (2009) when virtually no one else did — but you have to prove yourself anew each year, and I hope to do just that.

Regardless of how things pan out, thank you for taking the time to read and consider what I have to say, and please consider sharing your own forecasts in the comments section of this post!

BEST PICTURE
1. The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer)
2. Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer)
3. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
4. Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
5. The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
6. Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer)
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, R, trailer)
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
Alternate War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
Potential Surprise Bridesmaids (Universal, 5/13, R, trailer)
Shoulda Been a Contender Margin Call (Roadside Attractions, 10/21, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
2. Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
4. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
5. Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Alternate David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Potential Surprise Tate Taylor (The Help)
Shoulda Been a Contender Bennett Miller (Moneyball)

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney (The Descendants)
2. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
3. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
4. Michael Fassbender (Shame)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Alternate Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Potential Surprise Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Shoulda Been a Contender Martin Sheen (The Way)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis (The Help)
2. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
3. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
4. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
5. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Alternate Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Potential Surprise Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Shoulda Been a Contender Adepero Oduye (Pariah)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
2. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
3. Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
4. Nick Nolte (Warrior)
5. Albert Brooks (Drive)
Alternate Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Potential Surprise Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
Shoulda Been a Contender Ryan Gosling (Crazy, Stupid, Love)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
3. Jessica Chastain (The Help)
4. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
5. Carey Mulligan (Shame)
Alternate Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Potential Surprise Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Shoulda Been a Contender Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
2. Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
3. John Logan (Hugo)
4. Tate Taylor (The Help)
5. Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Alternate Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Potential Surprise Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Shoulda Been a Contender Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
2. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
3. Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
4. Will Reiser (50/50)
5. Mike Mills (Beginners)
Alternate Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
Potential Surprise Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Shoulda Been a Contender Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
1. Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
2. Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer)
3. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Unicorn (Paramount, 12/21, PG, trailer)
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
5. Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, PG, trailer)
Alternate Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, G, trailer)
Potential Surprise Happy Feet 2 (Warner Bros., 11/18, PG, trailer)
Shoulda Been a Contender Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
1. Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
2. Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
3. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, R, trailer)
4. If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
5. Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Alternate Undefeated (The Weinstein Company, 2/10, TBA, TBA)
Potential Surprise Battle for Brooklyn (TBA, 6/17, TBA, trailer)
Shoulda Been a Contender Semper Fi: Always Faithful (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Iran (A Separation)
2. Israel (Footnote)
3. Poland (In Darkness)
4. Canada (Monsieur Lazhar)
5. Denmark (Superclasico)
Alternate Belgium (Bullhead)
Potential Surprise Germany (Pina)
Shoulda Been a Contender Finland (Le Havre)

BEST ART DIRECTION
1. Hugo (Dante Ferretti)
2. The Artist (Laurence Bennett)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig)
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Maria Djurkovic)
5. War Horse (Rick Carter)
Alternate The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Donald Graham Burt)
Potential Surprise Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (K.K. Barrett)
Shoulda Been a Contender Limitless (Patrizia von Brandenstein)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Hugo (Robert Richardson)
3. The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman)
4. War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)
Alternate Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
Potential Surprise Drive (Newton Thomas Sigel)
Shoulda Been a Contender Take Shelter (Adam Stone)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Artist (Mark Bridges)
2. Hugo (Sandy Powell)
3. Jane Eyre (Michael O’Connor)
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Jacqueline Durran)
5. W.E (Arianne Phillips)
Alternate The Help (Sharen Davis)
Potential Surprise My Week with Marilyn (Jill Taylor)
Shoulda Been a Contender Captain America (Anna B. Sheppard)

BEST FILM EDITING
1. The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius, Anne-Sophie Bion)
2. Hugo (Thelma Schoonmaker)
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall)
4. War Horse (Michael Kahn)
5. Drive (Matthew Newman)
Alternate Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Dino Jonsater)
Potential Surprise Midnight in Paris (Alisa Lepselter)
Shoulda Been a Contender Contagion (Stephen Mirrione)

BEST MAKEUP
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight)
2. The Iron Lady (Marese Langan, Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland)
3. Albert Nobbs (Matthew W. Mungle, Lynn Johnston, Martial Corneville)
Alternate Hugo (Morag Roth, Jan Archibald, Anni Buchanan)
Potential Surprise The Artist (Julie Hewitt, Cydney Cornell)
Shoulda Been a Contender The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Torsten Witte, Eva von Bahr)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Artist (Ludovic Bource)
2. Hugo (Howard Shore)
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
4. War Horse (John Williams)
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Alexandre Desplat)
Alternate Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias)
Potential Surprise The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Unicorn (John Williams)
Shoulda Been a Contender Jane Eyre (Dario Marianelli)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Star Spangled Man” (Captain America)
2. “Life’s a Happy Song” (The Muppets)
3. “The Living Proof” (The Help)
4. “Lay Your Head Down” (Albert Nobbs)
5. “Hello Hello” (Gnomeo & Juliet)
Alternate “Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)
Potential Surprise “Coeur Volant” (Hugo)
Shoulda Been a Contender “Think You Can Wait” (Win Win)

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Super 8
2. Hugo
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. War Horse
Alternate Drive
Potential Surprise Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Shoulda Been a Contender In the Land of Blood and Honey

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Super 8
2. Hugo
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
4. Moneyball
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Alternate The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Unicorn
Potential Surprise War Horse
Shoulda Been a Contender Source Code

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Justin Cornish, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Brooke Lyndon-Stanford, R. Christopher White, Erik Winquist)
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Tim Burke, Greg Butler, Dadi Einarsson, Adam Gascoyne, Rudi Holzapfel, Matt Jacobs, Seth Mathiesen, John Moffatt, Clark Parkhurst, Chris Shaw, Ulcun Tan, David Vickery)
3. Hugo (David Burton, Matthew Gratzner, John Knoll, Robert Legato, Mark Weigert, Edson Williams)
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Brennan Doyle, Scott Farrar, Samir Hoon, Reupal D. Rawal, Scott Squires)
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Gary Brozenich, Tony Clark, Charles Gibson, Ian Hunter, Charlie Iturriaga, Gregory Oehler, Christian Pokorny, David Sanger, Ben Snow, Simon Stanley-Clamp, Greg Strause)
Alternate The Tree of Life (Tom Debenham, Olivier Dumont, Dan Glass, Bryan Hirota, Matt McDonald, Dominic Parker, Daniel P. Rosen, Michael Shand)
Potential Surprise Captain America: The First Avenger (Craig Barron, Stephane Ceretti, Vincent Cirelli, Sean Andrew Faden, Florian Gellinger, Jonathan Harb, Richard Higham, Dave Morley, Charlie Noble, Daniel P. Rosen, Kathy Siegel, Stephen Swanson, Christopher Townsend, Edson Williams)
Shoulda Been a Contender Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (John Knoll, Dave Morley)

NOTE: During phase 1, I do not forecast the shorts — animated, documentary, or live action — because I do not have sufficient access to see the films myself. During phase 2, I will be provided with copies of each film, screen them, and then project winners.