FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott’s First Projections Since the Oscar Noms and Golden Globes

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new “Feinberg Forecast,” a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK’S FORECAST:

• On the morning of Jan. 10, the Academy announced its 85th Oscar nominations. I identified the old records that fell and the snubs that baffled, and then identified the most important clues that we can derive about the Academy’s thoughts from the nominations. Meanwhile, my colleagues talked to the nominees — and passed along the bleepable reaction of one producer to the snub of her film’s director.
• On the evening of Jan. 10, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, of which I am a voting member, hosted the 18th Critics’ Choice Awards. We passed along the names of the winners, and I talked about the reception at the ceremony of the three highest-profile directors who had been snubbed by the Academy in the morning but still showed up at night.
• On Jan. 11, those three directors and others associated with many of the year’s best film and TV shows attended the 13th AFI Awards luncheon, after which I provided a summary of the goings on.
• Also on Jan. 11, the American Cinema Editors, the union/guild of film editors, announced its nominees for the 63rd annual ACE Eddie Awards, which will be held on Feb. 16. There were five films nominated in each of several categories, including best edited feature film (drama), best edited feature film (comedy or musical), best edited animated feature film and best edited documentary feature film.
• On Jan. 12, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association held its 38th LAFCA awards ceremony, and we were in the room taking note of all of the action, gossip and chatter.
• On Jan. 13, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hosted the 70th Golden Globe Awards. We reported on all of the winners, and I got the lowdown backstage, where I posed questions to best original song winner Adele (Skyfall) and Cecil B. DeMille Award winner Jodie Foster. But the night’s big winner might well be a film that lost all but one of the seven Globes for which it was nominated, Lincoln, since it was introduced and endorsed by former president Bill Clinton — after he received a lengthy standing ovation. We later learned that the telecast’s ratings were way up.
• And, on Jan. 15, I hit the streets of Los Angeles and got the public’s views about all of the above — as well as their translations of Jodie Foster‘s cryptic Globes speech and pronunciation of Les Miserables!

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Projected Nominees
1. Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
2. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, FI
3. Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
HFPA, AFI, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ADG
4. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, VES
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer)
NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, CAS
6. Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
7. Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, ADG
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, BFCA, PGA, IPA, FI
9. Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
LAFCA

BEST DIRECTOR
Projected Nominees
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA
2. David O. Russell
IPA, BFCA, FI
3. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
4. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
FI, IFP
5. Michael Haneke (Amour)

BEST ACTOR
Projected Nominees
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, SAG
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
HFPA, LAFCA, IPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
HFPA, BFCA, SAG
4. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
BFCA, IFP
5. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Projected Nominees
1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
2. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
HFPA, BAFTA
3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
BFCA, IPA, SAG
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
BFCA, DCAC, HFPA, IPA, SAG
5. Alan Arkin (Argo)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Projected Nominees
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
HFPA, BFCA, NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, BAFTA, SAG
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
5. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
1. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
2. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
NBR, DCAC, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
3. Argo (Chris Terrio)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
4. Life of Pi (David Magee)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Projected Nominees
1. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA
3. Amour (Michael Haneke)
BAFTA
4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
5. Flight (John Gatins)
BFCA, IPA, WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
2. Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer)
NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
3. ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
DCAC, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS
4. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer)
NBR, HFPA, IPA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
IAFS

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Projected Nominees
1. Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
NBR, IPA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, CEH
2. The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip)
LAFCA, IPA
3. How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
BSFC, IFP, DGA, FI
4. 5 Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)
FI
5. The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
IDA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Projected Nominees
1. Austria, Amour
HFPA, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, FI
2. Denmark, A Royal Affair
HFPA, IPA, BFCA
3. Canada, War Witch
IPA, FI
4. Norway, Kon-Tiki
HFPA, IPA
5. Chile, No

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Life of Pi
NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Lincoln
IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Anna Karenina
IPA, ASC, BAFTA
4. Skyfall
LAFCA, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
5. Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Les Miserables
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Lincoln BAFTA, BFCA
4. Snow White and the Huntsman
IPA, BAFTA
5. Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Zero Dark Thirty
BFCA, LAFCA, IPA, BAFTA
2. Argo
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln
BFCA
4. Life of Pi
BFCA, BAFTA
5. Silver Linings Playbook
IPA

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Hitchcock
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Lincoln (John Williams)
BFCA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
5. Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
IPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Les Miserables (“Suddenly,” performed by Hugh Jackman)
BFCA, HFPA
2. Skyfall (“Skyfall,” performed by Adele)
BFCA, HFPA
3. Chasing Ice (“Before My Time,” performed by Joshua Bell and Scarlett Johansson)
4. Ted (“Everybody Needs a Friend,” performed by Norah Jones)
5. Life of Pi (“Pi’s Lullaby,” performed by Bombay Jayashri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
2. Lincoln
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
3. Les Miserables
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
4. Life of Pi
BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, ADG

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
BAFTA
2. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA
3. Django Unchained
BAFTA
4. Argo
5. Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Skyfall
CAS, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
IPA, CAS, BAFTA
3. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA
4. Lincoln
CAS
5. Argo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi
BFCA, IPA, VES, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
3. The Avengers
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
4. Prometheus
IPA, BAFTA, VES
5. Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
2. Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
3. Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’ (Gracie Films)
4. Paperman (Disney)
5. Fresh Guacamole (PES)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
2. Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
3. Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
4. Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
5. Redemption (Downtown Docs)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. Asad (Hungry Man)
2. Buzkashi Boys (Afghan Film Project)
3. Curfew (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
4. Death of a Shadow (Serendipity Films)
5. Henry (Yan England)

* * *

KEY

Contenders’ names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (Feb. 10, 2013)

BFCA = 18th Critics’ Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)

IAFS = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

IDA = 28th International Documentary Association Awards (Dec. 7, 2012)

IFP = 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards (Nov. 26, 2012)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE “FEINBERG FORECAST”

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry’s most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world’s best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).