Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Predictions Ahead of Final Voting

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

1. Nomadland (Searchlight)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
3. Promising Young Woman (Focus)
4. Minari (A24)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
6. Mank (Netflix)
7. Sound of Metal (Amazon)
8. The Father (Sony Classics)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
3. David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

*BEST ACTOR*

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yeun, Minari

*BEST ACTRESS*

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
5. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
5. Olivia Colman, The Father

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

1. Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
2. One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer)
4. The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
5. The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

1. Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
3. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
5. Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

1. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
2. Time (Amazon)
3. Crip Camp (Netflix)
4. Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. Better Days (Hong Kong)
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

1. Soul (Pixar)
2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
4. Onward (Pixar)
5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. News of the World

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Emma
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Pinocchio

*BEST FILM EDITING*

1. Sound of Metal
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Nomadland
4. Promising Young Woman
5. The Father

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Emma
5. Pinocchio

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

1. “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
2. “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
3. “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
4. “Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
5. “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

1. Mank
2. Tenet
3. News of the World
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. The Father

*BEST SOUND*

1. Sound of Metal
2. News of the World
3. Mank
4. Soul
5. Greyhound

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

1. The Midnight Sky
2. Tenet
3. Mulan
4. Love and Monsters
5. The One and Only Ivan

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Yes-People
4. Opera
5. Genius Loci

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

1. A Love Song for Latasha
2. A Concerto Is a Conversation
3. Colette
4. Do Not Split
5. Hunger Ward

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

1. Two Distant Strangers
2. The Letter Room
3. The Present
4. Feeling Through
5. White Eye