FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 20 Weeks Until the Oscars)

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new “Feinberg Forecast,” a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK’S FORECAST:

• The 50th New York Film Festival’s centerpiece gala screening, Paramount’s Not Fade Away, was well-received by critics and festivalgoers, but may be too small and personal a film to seriously contend for major awards.
• Reports indicate that the New York Film Festival will hold a “sneak screening” of a work-in-progress film on Monday night, and that it will be Steven Spielberg‘s Lincoln, which was supposed to be unveiled for the first time as the closing night film at the AFI Fest on Nov. 8.
• The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook won the audience award at the 20th Hamptons International Film Festival, adding it to a mantelpiece that also includes the audience award from last month’s Toronto International. Magnolia’s No Place on Earth won the same prize for the documentary category.
• Warner Bros.’ Argo solidifed its standing as the strongest Oscar contender that has been widely screened, following its strong showings in Telluride and Toronto last month with a warmly received Hollywood premiere and star-studded after-party.
• SAG-AFTRA deemed Fox Searchlight’s Beasts of the Southern Wild ineligible for its SAG Awards due to the fact that it was not made in compliance with SAG-AFTRA’s Low Budget Feature Agreement.
• The Academy announced that Seth MacFarlane, the creator of Family Guy and co-writer/director of this summer’s hit comedy Ted, will host the 85th Oscars next February, prompting a wide variety of reactions within the Hollywood community. He faces great expectations.
• The IFP announced that actor Matt Damon (Promised Land), director David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook, and producer Jeff Skoll will receive career tributes at the 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards on Nov. 26.
• CBS’s 60 Minutes devoted a segment on Sunday night to Sony Classics’s doc Searching for Sugarman and its subject, the singer Rodriguez.
• The City of New York subpoenaed notes and outtakes from IFC Films’ doc The Central Park Five — directed by Ken Burns, his daughter Sarah Burns and his son-in-law David McMahon — which delves into the miscarriage of justice that resulted in five New Yorkers serving time in jail for a crime that they did not commit. Florentine Films, the film’s production company, issued a statement saying they will not cooperate.
• DreamWorks Animation’s Rise of the Guardians will receive the new Vanity Fair International Award for Cinematic Excellence at the Rome Film Festival in November.
• The weekend box office was dominated by Taken 2, an action-thriller with no real shot at awards, which took in $50 million. But several awards hopefuls were among the top five: Sony Animation’s Hotel Transylvania, which topped the charts last weekend, placed second with $26.3 million; TriStar’s Looper, which placed second last week, came in third with $12.2 million; and Disney’s Frankenweenie, in its first week of release, bombed, taking in just $11.5 million and finishing fifth.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, TBA)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
Possibilities
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/14, TBA, trailer)
On the Road (IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)
Not Fade Away (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, TBA)
Trouble With the Curve (Warner Bros., 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Sapphires (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Major Threats
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
Possibilities
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
David Ayer (End of Watch)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
Gary Ross (The Hunger Games)
Joss Whedon (The Avengers)
Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)
Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Walter Salles (On the Road)
David Chase (Not Fade Away)
Robert Lorenz (Trouble the Curve)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Wayne Blair (The Sapphires)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Major Threats
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Possibilities
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Christopher Walken (Stand Up Guys)
Al Pacino (Stand Up Guys)
Frank Langella (Robot & Frank)
Paul Dano (Ruby Sparks)
Christian Bale (The Dark Knight Rises)
Terence Stamp (Song for Marion)
Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Geoffrey Rush (The Eye of the Storm)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Michael Shannon (The Iceman)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Possibilities
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Kristen Wiig (Imogene)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)
Rashida Jones (Celeste and Jesse Forever)
Zoe Kazan (Ruby Sparks)
Toni Collette (Jesus Henry Christ)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Jim Broadbent (Cloud Atlas)
Possibilities
Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)
Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths)
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
Josh Brolin (Men in Black 3)
Alan Arkin (Stand Up Guys)
Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
James Gandolfini (Not Fade Away)
Tom Hardy (The Dark Knight Rises)
Tom Courtenay (Quartet)
Billy Connolly (Quartet)
Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Samuel West (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)
Aaron Paul (Smashed)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Chris O’Dowd (The Sapphires)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Major Threats
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Melissa Leo (Flight)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Christina Hendricks (Ginger & Rosa) NEW
Possibilities
Amy Adams (Trouble With the Curve)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Tabu (Life of Pi)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion)
Pauline Collins (Quartet)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Olivia Colman (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Isabelle Huppert (Amour)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Major Threats
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
Possibilities
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
The Hunger Games (Suzanne Collins, Billy Ray, Gary Ross)
The Avengers (Joss Whedon)
Rise of the Guardians (William Joyce)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Killing Them Softly (Andrew Dominik)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh) NEW
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Possibilities
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Stand Up Guys (Noah Haidle)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Ted (Seth MacFarlane, Alec Sulkin, Wellesley Wild) NEW
Trouble With the Curve (Randy Brown)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper)
The Sapphires (Tony Briggs, Keith Thompson)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi’s Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer) NEW
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Magnolia, 3/9, PG, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA) NEW
No Place on Earth (Magnolia, TBA, TBA, TBA) NEW
Possibilities
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, trailer)
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria — Amour
France — The Intouchables
Denmark — A Royal Affair
Switzerland — Sister
Israel — Fill the Void
Major Threats
Romania — Beyond the Hills
South Korea — Pieta
Germany — Barbara
Australia — Lore
Canada — War Witch
Japan — Our Homeland
Bosnia and Herzegovina — Children of Sarajevo
Hungary — Just the Wind
Bulgaria — Sneakers
Greece — Unfair World
Possibilities
Philippines — Bwakaw
Chile — No
Portugal — Blood of My Blood
Serbia — When Day Breaks
Belgium — Our Children
Morocco — Death for Sale
Netherlands — Kauwboy
Norway — Kon-Tiki
Sweden — The Hypnotist
Mexico — After Lucia
Iceland — The Deep
Czech Republic — In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
Lincoln
The Master
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hunger Games
Sister

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom
Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Django Unchained
Argo
Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Possibilities
Flight
The Bourne Legacy
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
The Impossible

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock
Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
Lincoln (John Williams)
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)
Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom
Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Possibilities
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Skyfall
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Major Threats
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight
Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy
Skyfall

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG “FEINBERG FORECAST”

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry’s most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world’s best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).