FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections as the New York Film Fest Crosses Halftime

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2015, The Hollywood Reporter‘s lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated “Feinberg Forecast,” wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week’s Feinberg Forecast …

• The New York Film Festival screenings of Inherent Vice, Whiplash and Mr. Turner, and Sept. 30 tribute to Boyhood‘s Ethan Hawke
• The official entries of dozens of foreign-language films by countries around the world prior to the Oct. 1 submission deadline nears — including the unexpected pick made by China, and an unusually high number that debuted in Cannes
• The announcements that Foxcatcher‘s Bennett Miller and Snowpiercer‘s Tilda Swinton will be honored at the Gotham Awards; that Sony Pictures Classics will campaign for Julianne Moore‘s Still Alice co-stars; and that the Austin Film Festival will open with The Humbling and The Last Five Years and close with Rosewater
• The newly released trailers of American Sniper, Exodus: Gods and Kings (40 minutes of the film was also screened this week), Inherent Vice, Interstellar and The Theory of Everything
• The nationwide theatrical debut of Gone Girl and the limited art-house debuts of The Good Lie and Men, Women & Children

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Paramount)
Unbroken (Universal)
Boyhood (IFC Films)
The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)
The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)
American Sniper (Warner Bros.)
Birdman (Fox Searchlight)
Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)
Into the Woods (Disney)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Selma (Paramount)
Chef (Open Road Films)
Fury (Sony)
Wild (Fox Searchlight)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight)
Possibilities
Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.)
A Most Violent Year (A24)
Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics)
Get On Up (Universal)
Still Alice (Sony Pictures Classics)
Long Shots
The Judge (Warner Bros.)
Big Eyes (The Weinstein Co.)
Dear White People (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)
Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
Major Threats
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Possibilities
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
Long Shots
J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)
David Ayer (Fury)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild)
Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Jack O’Connell (Unbroken)
Major Threats
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
Brad Pitt (Fury)
Possibilities
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
James Corden (Into the Woods)
Long Shots
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Judge)
Al Pacino (The Humbling)
Chris Rock (Top Five)
Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings)
Tom Hardy (Locke)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Kevin Costner (Black and White)
Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)
Major Threats
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)
Possibilities
Anne Dorval (Mommy)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them)
Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle)
Long Shots
Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years)
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Greta Gerwig (The Humbling)
Mia Wasikowska (Tracks)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Julie)
Jennifer Connelly (Shelter)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Miyavi (Unbroken)
Major Threats
Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Logan Lerman (Fury)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Alec Baldwin (Still Alice) NEW
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)
Possibilities
Michael Caine (Interstellar)
John Goodman (The Gambler)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Martin Short (Inherent Vice) NEW
Long Shots
Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
Chris Pine (Into the Woods)
Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken)
Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Laura Dern (Wild)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
Sienna Miller (American Sniper)
Carmen Ejogo (Selma)
Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) NEW
Possibilities
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Ellen Burstyn (Interstellar)
Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
Kristen Stewart (Still Alice)
Long Shots
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Adriana Barraza (Cake)
Octavia Spencer (Black and White)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Unbroken (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
American Sniper (Jason Dean Hall)
Into the Woods (James Lapine)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Wild (Nick Hornby)
Possibilities
The Fault in Our Stars (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Men, Women & Children (Jason Reitman, Erin Cressida Wilson)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)
Long Shots
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Birdman (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giabone, Alejandro G. Inarritu)
Interstellar (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Wild Tales (Damian Szifron)
Major Threats
Foxcatcher (Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Selma (Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb)
A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)
Possibilities
Chef (Jon Favreau)
Magic in the Moonlight (Woody Allen)
Fury (David Ayer)
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
Love Is Strange (Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias)
Long Shots
Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev, Oleg Negin) NEW
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
Big Eyes (Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski)
Begin Again (John Carney)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The LEGO Movie (Warner Bros.)
Big Hero 6 (Disney)
Song of the Sea (GKIDS)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (GKIDS/Studio Ghibli)
Major Threats
The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Rio 2 (20th Century Fox)
Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney)
The Book of Life (20th Century Fox)
Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The Penguins of Madagascar (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
Possibilities
Henry & Me (Reveal Animation Studios)
The Boy and the World (GKIDS)
The Pirate Fairy (Disney)
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli)
The Nut Job (Open Road Films/ReelD)
Postman Pat: The Movie (Shout! Factory)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return (Clarius Entertainment)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
Life Itself (Magnolia/CNN Films)
CITIZENFOUR (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO)
Keep on Keepin’ On (RADiUS-TWC)
Red Army (Sony Pictures Classics)
Finding Vivian Mayer (IFC Films)
Major Threats
Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (Area 23a)
The Case Against 8 (HBO Documentary Films)
The Salt of the Earth (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Great Invisible (RADiUS-TWC)
Whitey: United States of America vs. James J. Bulger (Magnolia)
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (RADiUS-TWC)
An Open Secret (self-distributed)
Tales of the Grim Sleeper (HBO)
Last Days in Vietnam (American Experience Films) NEW
The Overnighters (Drafthouse Films)
Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Possibilities
Documented (CNN Films)
Rich Hill (The Orchard)
Point and Shoot (The Orchard)
Fed Up (RADiUS-TWC)
Anita (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Dancing in Jaffa (Sundance Selects)
The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (Zeitgeist Films)
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me (IFC Films)
Jodorowsky’s Dune (Sony Pictures Classics)
Warsaw Uprising: The Film (self-distributed)
Happy Valley (Music Box Films) NEW

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Ida (Poland)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)
Mommy (Canada)
Major Threats
Leviathan (Russia)
Human Capital (Italy)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Accused (Netherlands)
1001 Grams (Norway)
White God (Hungary)
Saint Laurent (France)
Gett: The Trail of Viviane Amsalem (Israel)
Possibilities
The Liberator (Venezuela)
Sorrow and Joy (Denmark)
The Nightingale (China) NEW
The Way He Looks (Brazil)
Living Is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain)
Beloved Sisters (Germany)
The Light Shines Only There (Japan)
What Now? (Portugal)
Cantinflas (Mexico)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Unbroken (Roger Deakins)
Inherent Vice (Robert Elswit)
Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
Major Threats
The Theory of Everything (Benoit Delhomme)
The Imitation Game (Oscar Faura)
American Sniper (Tom Stern)
Gone Girl (Jeff Cronenweth)
Nightcrawler (Robert Elswit)
The Homesman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Wild (Yves Belanger)
Possibilities
A Most Violent Year (Bradford Young)
Fury (Roman Vasyanov)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
Boyhood (Lee Daniel, Shane Kelly)
Foxcatcher (Greig Fraser)
Selma (Bradford Young)
Tracks (Mandy Walker)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Dariusz Wolski)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Maleficent (Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard)
Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)
Big Eyes (Colleen Atwood)
Major Threats
Noah (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
The Immigrant (Patricia Norris)
The Theory of Everything (Steven Noble)
Selma (Ruth E. Carter)
Get On Up (Sharen Davis)
The Homesman (Lahly Poore)
Grace of Monaco (Gigi Lepage)
Possibilities
Unbroken (Louise Frogley)
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies (Ann Maskrey, Bob Buck)
Interstellar (Mary Zophres)
The Imitation Game (Sammy Sheldon)
Birdman (Albert Wolsky)
Belle (Anushia Nieradzik)
Madame Bovary (Christian Gasc, Valerie Ranchoux)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Janty Yates)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Suffragette (Jane Petrie)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Lee Smith)
Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
Unbroken (Tim Squyres, William Goldenberg)
The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg)
Birdman (Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione)
Major Threats
American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)
Fury (Dody Dorn)
Gone Girl (Kirk Baxter)
Wild (Martin Pensa, John McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee])
The Theory of Everything (Jinx Godfrey)
Foxcatcher (Jay Cassidy, Stuart Levy, Conor O’Neill)
Selma (Spencer Averick)
Possibilities
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy, Stan Salfas)
Inherent Vice (Leslie Jones)
Into the Woods (Wyatt Smith)
A Most Violent Year (Ron Patane)
Whiplash (Tom Cross)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling)
Edge of Tomorrow (James Herbert)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John K. Carr)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (TBD)
Maleficent (TBD)
Foxcatcher (TBD)
Major Threats
Guardians of the Galaxy (TBD)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TBD)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (TBD)
Get On Up (TBD)
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (TBD)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (TBD)
Possibilities
Unbroken (TBD)
Selma (TBD)
Inherent Vice (TBD)
Noah (TBD)
Mr. Turner (TBD)
Fury (TBD)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Gone Girl (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Major Threats
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John Powell)
Big Eyes (Danny Elfman)
The Homesman (Marco Beltrami)
Fury (Steven Price)
Get On Up (Thomas Newman)
Inherent Vice (Jonny Greenwood)
Possibilities
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
Noah (Clint Mansell)
Foxcatcher (Rob Simonsen)
The Judge (Thomas Newman)
The Hundred-Foot Journey (A.R. Rahman)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Alberto Iglesias)
Maleficent (James Newton Howard)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frontrunners
“Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
“Everything Is Awesome” (The LEGO Movie)
“I’ll Get You What You Want” (Muppets Most Wanted)
“What Is Love” (Rio 2)
“There and Back Again” (The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies)
Major Threats
“Mercy Is” (Noah)
“Let Me In” (The Fault in Our Stars)
“Not About Angels” (The Fault in Our Stars)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Nathan Crowley)
Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner)
Unbroken (Jon Hutman)
Birdman (Kevin Thompson)
The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic)
Major Threats
Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies)
Inherent Vice (David Crank)
The Theory of Everything (John Paul Kelly)
American Sniper (Charisse Cardenas, James J. Murakami)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen)
Fury (Andrew Menzies)
Possibilities
Gone Girl (Donald Graham Burt)
Selma (TBD)
Get On Up (Mark Ricker)
Foxcatcher (Jess Conchor)
Boyhood (Rodney Becker, Gay Studebaker)

* * *

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook‘s Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street‘s Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg