FEINBERG FORECAST: ‘War Horse,’ ‘Drive’ and ‘Bridesmaids’ Surging as Oscar Ballots Arrive

What follows is my latest assessment of all of the high-profile Oscar categories, along with commentary about the latest developments in each. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, SAG, HFPA, NYFCC
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, AFI
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA ?
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, LAFCA, AFI
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, AFI
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, AFI
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, AFI
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, AFI
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer) BFCA, AFI ?
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer) BFCA

PHOTOS: Golden Globe Awards: The Nominees

Major Threats
Bridesmaids (Universal, 5/13, R, trailer) HFPA, SAG, AFI ?
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, R, trailer) AFI ?
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, R, trailer) HFPA
J. Edgar (Warner Bros., 11/11, R, trailer) AFI
My Week with Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA
Possibilities
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (Warner Bros., 7/15, PG-13, trailer)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, R, trailer)
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer) HFPA
Margin Call (Roadside Attractions, 10/21, R, trailer)
Beginners (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Alexander Payne (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA
Steven Spielberg (War Horse) BFCA ?
Martin Scorsese (Hugo) BFCA, HFPA, NBR
Tate Taylor (The Help) ?
Major Threats
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) HFPA
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) BFCA ?
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) LAFCA
Possibilities
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) BFCA
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) ?
George Clooney (The Ides of March) HFPA
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
George Clooney (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NBR
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NYFCC
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Demian Bichir (A Better Life) SAG ?
Major Threats
Michael Fassbender (Shame) BFCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Ryan Gosling (Drive) BFCA ?
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Possibilities
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March) HFPA
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) HFPA
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NYFCC
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NBR
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) HFPA, SAG
Major Threats
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) HFPA
Charlize Theron (Young Adult) BFCA, HFPA
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) BFCA
Possibilities
Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) HFPA ?
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NBR, LAFCA
Albert Brooks (Drive) BFCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Jonah Hill (Moneyball) HFPA, SAG
Nick Nolte (Warrior) BFCA, SAG
Major Threats
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) SAG ?
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) HFPA
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) BFCA
Possibilities
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) BFCA
Ben Kingsley (Hugo)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Berenice Bejo (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Octavia Spencer (The Help) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Jessica Chastain (The Help) BFCA, HFPA, SAG, NYFCC, LAFCA
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) HFPA, SAG
Major Threats
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) BFCA, SAG
Carey Mulligan (Shame) BFCA
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Possibilities
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, NYFCC
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) BFCA, HFPA
Tate Taylor (The Help) BFCA
John Logan (Hugo) BFCA
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse) ?
Major Threats
Hossein Amini (Drive) ?
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) BFCA
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) ?
Possibilities
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) HFPA
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) BFCA, HFPA
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win) BFCA
Will Reiser (50/50) BFCA, NBR
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) ?
Major Threats
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) LAFCA
Diablo Cody (Young Adult) BFCA
J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)
Possibilities
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, LAFCA
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, PG, trailer) BFCA, HFPA
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer) BFCA, HFPA
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer) BFCA
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, PG, trailer) BFCA, HFPA
Major Threats
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, G, trailer) HFPA
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Bros., 11/18, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
Semper Fi: Always Faithful (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer) ?
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer) BFCA
Undefeated (The Weinstein Company, 2/10, TBA, TBA) BFCA
Major Threats
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer) BFCA
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) NBR
Battle for Brooklyn (TBA, 6/17, TBA, trailer)
Pina (Sundance Selects, 12/23, TBA, trailer)
Long Way Home: The Loving Story (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
Sing Your Song (HBO Documentary Films, 9/2, TBA, trailer)
Jane’s Journey (First Run Features, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
A Separation (Iran) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, NYFCC
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon) BFCA
Le Havre (Finland) BFCA
In Darkness (Poland) BFCA
Footnote (Israel)
Major Threats
The Flowers of War (China) HFPA
Declaration of War (France)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Simple Life (Hong Kong)
Pina (Germany)
Happy, Happy (Norway)
Possibilities
Terra Firma (Italy)
Sonny Boy (Netherlands)
Superclasico (Denmark)
Bullhead (Belgium)
Black Bread (Spain)
Postcard (Japan)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)

BEST ART DIRECTION
Frontrunners
Hugo (Dante Ferretti) BFCA, LAFCA
War Horse (Rick Carter) BFCA
The Artist (Laurence Bennett) BFCA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig) BFCA
The Tree of Life (Jack Fisk) BFCA
Major Threats
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Maria Djurkovic)
J. Edgar (James J. Murakami)
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (Sarah Greenwood)
Drive (Beth Mickle)
Albert Nobbs (Patrizia von Brandenstein)
Possibilities
Midnight in Paris (Anne Seibel)
A Dangerous Method (James McAteer)
My Week with Marilyn (Donal Woods)
Jane Eyre (Will Hughes-Jones)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki) BFCA, NYFCC, LAFCA
War Horse (Janusz Kaminski) BFCA
Hugo (Robert Richardson) BFCA
The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman) BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)
Major Threats
Drive (Newton Thomas Sigel) BFCA
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Chris Menges)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Eduardo Serra)
Possibilities
The Descendants (Phedon Papamichael)
Shame (Sean Bobbitt)
J. Edgar (Tom Stern)
A Dangerous Method (Peter Suschitzky)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Jane Eyre (Michael O’Connor) BFCA
The Artist (Mark Bridges) BFCA
Hugo (Sandy Powell) BFCA
The Help (Sharen Davis) BFCA
W.E (Arianne Phillips)
Major Threats
My Week with Marilyn (Jill Taylor) BFCA
Midnight in Paris (Sonia Grande)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Jacqueline Durran)
War Horse (Joanna Johnston)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trish Summerville)
J. Edgar (Deborah Hopper)
Possibilities
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Jany Temime)
Albert Nobbs (Pierre-Yves Gayraud)
Captain America (Anna B. Sheppard)
Anonymous (Lisy Christl)
A Dangerous Method (Denise Cronenberg)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius, Anne-Sophie Bion) BFCA
War Horse (Michael Kahn) BFCA
Hugo (Thelam Schoonmaker) BFCA
The Help (Hughes Winborne) NEW
Drive (Matthew Newman) BFCA
Major Threats
Moneyball (Christopher Tellefson)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall) BFCA
The Descendants (Kevin Tent)
Contagion (Stephen Mirrione)
Midnight in Paris (Alisa Lepselter)
Possibilities
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Claire Simpson)
The Ides of March (Stephen Mirrione)
J. Edgar (Joe Cox, Gary Roach)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Dino Jonsater)
Shame (Joe Walker)

BEST MAKEUP NEW
Frontrunners
The Iron Lady (Marese Langan, Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland) BFCA
Albert Nobbs (Matthew W. Mungle, Lynn Johnston, Martial Corneville) BFCA
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Joel Harlow, Peter King)
Major Threats
The Artist (Julie Hewitt, Cydney Cornell)
J. Edgar (Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Tania McComas, Carol A. O’Connell) BFCA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight) BFCA
My Week with Marilyn (Jenny Shircore) BFCA
Possibilities
War Horse (Lois Burwell, Jon Henry Gordon)
Anonymous (Bjorn Rehbein, Heike Merker)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Torsten Witte, Eva von Bahr)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
Hugo (Howard Shore) BFCA, HFPA
The Artist (Ludovic Bource) BFCA, HFPA
War Horse (John Williams) BFCA, HFPA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross) BFCA, HFPA
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Alexandre Desplat)
Major Threats
The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)
Jane Eyre (Dario Marianelli)
The Help (Thomas Newman)
Moneyball (Mychael Danna)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Alexandre Desplat)
Possibilities
W.E (Abel Korzeniowski) HFPA
The Ides of March (Alexandre Desplat)
Hanna (The Chemical Brothers) LAFCA
Super 8 (Michael Giacchino)
The Skin I Live In (Alberto Iglesias)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS NEW
Frontrunners
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Justin Cornish, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Brooke Lyndon-Stanford, R. Christopher White, Erik Winquist) BFCA
Hugo (David Burton, Matthew Gratzner, John Knoll, Robert Legato, Mark Weigert, Edson Williams) BFCA
Super 8 (Russell Earl, Kim Libreri, Sven Martin, Dennis Muren, Daniel P. Rosen, Stephan Trojansky) BFCA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Tim Burke, Greg Butler, Dadi Einarsson, Adam Gascoyne, Rudi Holzapfel, Matt Jacobs, Seth Mathiesen, John Moffatt, Clark Parkhurst, Chris Shaw, Ulcun Tan, David Vickery) BFCA
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Brennan Doyle, Scott Farrar, Samir Hoon, Reupal D. Rawal, Scott Squires)
Major Threats
The Tree of Life (Tom Debenham, Olivier Dumont, Dan Glass, Bryan Hirota, Matt McDonald, Dominic Parker, Daniel P. Rosen, Michael Shand) BFCA
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Gary Brozenich, Tony Clark, Charles Gibson, Ian Hunter, Charlie Iturriaga, Gregory Oehler, Christian Pokorny, David Sanger, Ben Snow, Simon Stanley-Clamp, Greg Strause)
Possibilities
Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (John Knoll, Dave Morley)
Captain America: The First Avenger (Craig Barron, Stephane Ceretti, Vincent Cirelli, Sean Andrew Faden, Florian Gellinger, Jonathan Harb, Richard Higham, Dave Morley, Charlie Noble, Daniel P. Rosen, Kathy Siegel, Stephen Swanson, Christopher Townsend, Edson Williams)