FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 12 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new “Feinberg Forecast,” a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK’S FORECAST:

• This year’s last two Oscar hopefuls to screen for the press — Warner Bros.’ The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and The Weinstein Co.’s Django Unchained — are finally being unveiled, with just days to go until the start of Oscar nominations voting Dec. 17. The Hobbit premiered in New Zealand, to great fanfare and acclaim, on Nov. 28, and started screening for the U.S. press Nov. 30 in both the cutting-edge 48 frames-per-second format and the more traditional 24 fps. Django, meanwhile, began screening for members of the various guilds Dec. 1 and began screening for the U.S. press Dec. 4.
• The weekend box office, as is usually the case a week after the big Thanksgiving weekend, was dominated by holdovers. For the second week in a row, Summit’s Twilight: Breaking Dawn — Part 2 came in first with a weekend take of $17.4 million, Sony’s Skyfall finished second with $17 million, and DreamWorks’ Lincoln placed third with $13.5 million. Other noteworthy news: Warner Bros.’ Argo has passed thje $100 million milestone in North America; The Weinstein Co.’s Killing Them Softly tanked in its opening weekend, finishing seventh with a gross of just $7 million and a rare F CinemaScore grade from moviegoers; but Weinstein’s Silver Linings Playbook continued to perform strongly as it platforms into a wider release, registering $3.1 million in ticket sales from fewer than 400 theaters and recording the best hold/lowest drop of any film now in release.
• The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences held its fourth annual Governors Awards ceremony Dec. 1. This year’s installment attracted an unprecedented turnout of current Oscar hopefuls — at least one key contributor from virtually every serious contender was in attendance to mingle with Oscar voters. Two even participated in the ceremonies: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) delivered a colorful toast to Hal Needham, and Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas) handed off the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award to Jeffrey Katzenberg.
• The Academy’s documentary branch revealed its shortlist of 15 films from which it will choose its five nominees for the best documentary feature Oscar. Somewhat surprising exclusions: Sundance Selects/IFC Films’ The Central Park Five, Music Box Films’ Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present, Abramorama’s Paul Williams: Still Alive, Magnolia’s The Queen of Versailles, Oscilloscope’s Samsara and Sony Pictures Classics’ West of Memphis.
• The Academy’s visual effects branch revealed its shortlist of 10 films from which it will choose its five nominees for the best visual effects Oscar. Somewhat surprising exclusions: Battleship, The Bourne Legacy, Men in Black 3 and especially The Impossible — which, I maintain, lost votes because of the oft-repeated talking point that the tsunami sequence was achieved without the use of CGI, which, fairly or not, has become almost synonymous with visual effects.
• The New York Film Critics Circle on Dec. 3 released the results of its membership’s vote to determine the winners of the 78th annual NYFCC Awards, which was conducted that same day. Sony’s Zero Dark Thirty, directed by Kathryn Bigelow, was voted best film — four of the past 10 NYFCC winners also won best picture at the Oscars — and Bigelow was voted best director. DreamWorks’ Lincoln won best actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), best supporting actress (Sally Field) and best screenplay (Tony Kushner). The group’s two most surprising — but widely welcomed — choices were Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) for best actress and Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) for best supporting actor. Disney’s Frankenweenie was voted best animated film, and IFC Films’ The Central Park Five was voted best documentary.
• The big headlines out of the Gotham Independent Film Awards on Nov. 26: Fox Searchlight’s indie darling Beasts of the Southern Wild had an unexpectedly up-and-down night — the film somehow lost the audience award to Jared Leto‘s virtually unseen doc Artifact, and the film’s 9-year-old phenom Quvenzhane Wallis was upset in the best breakthrough actor category by fellow best actress Oscar hopeful Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere); however, Beasts’ best director/adapted screenplay Oscar hopeful Benh Zeitlin Southern Wild) was voted best breakthrough director and received the inaugural Bingham Ray Award. The always-eccentric Gothams also gave its best ensemble award to IFC Films’ Your Sister’s Sister over Focus Features’ Moonrise Kingdom and The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook. But Moonrise Kingdom held off Silver Linings Playbook to claim the top prize, best feature.
• The nonprofit arts organization Film Independent announced the nominees for its 28th Spirit Awards on Nov. 27. Focus Features’ Moonrise Kingdom and The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook lead the field with five nominations each, including best feature, best director and best screenplay. The films that most exceeded expectations: Music Box Films’ Keep the Lights On, which scored noms for best feature, best director (Ira Sachs), best actor (Thure Lindhardt), and best screenplay (Sachs), and Middle of Nowhere, which scored noms for best actress (Emayatzy Corinealdi), best supporting actor (David Oyelowo), best supporting actress (Lorraine Toussaint) and the John Cassavetes Award for best feature made for under $500,000. The Oscar implications of these nominations? Still to be determined.
• The Producers Guild of America announced its five nominees for its documentary award: Sony Pictures Classics’ The Gatekeepers, Samuel Goldwyn Films’ The Island President, Lionsgate’s The Other Dream Team, A People Uncounted (which is still seeking domestic distribution) and Sony Pictures Classics’ Searching for Sugar Man.
• The International Animated Film Society, which is composed of members of the ASIFA-Hollywood animators guild, announced the nominees for its 40th Annie Awards on Dec. 3. Eight films were nominated for the top prize, best animated feature: Disney/Pixar’s Brave, Disney’s Frankenweenie, Sony Pictures Animation’s Hotel Transylvania, Focus Features’ ParaNorman, Sony Pictures Animation’s The Pirates! Band of Misfits, GKIDS‘ The Rabbi’s Cat, DreamWorks Animation’s Rise of the Guardians and Disney’s Wreck-It Ralph. Brave, Guardians and Ralph led the field with 10 total nominations each. But, somewhat surprisingly and inexplicably, the directors of Brave (Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman) and Guardians (Peter Ramsey) were not nominated for best director; the films marked the feature directorial debuts of Andrews and Ramsey, respectively.
• The International Press Academy, a group of U.S. and international journalists, announced the nominees for its 17th annual Satellite Awards, which cover 31 film and TV categories, on Dec. 3. Its 10 nominees for best motion picture: Warner Bros.’ Argo, Fox Searchlight’s Beasts of the Southern Wild, Universal’s Les Miserables, 20th Century Fox’s Life of Pi, DreamWorks‘ Lincoln, Focus Features’ Moonrise Kingdom, Fox Searchlight’s The Sessions, The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook, Sony’s Skyfall and Sony’s Zero Dark Thirty.
• Argo director-actor Ben Affleck was named “Entertainer of the Year” by Entertainment Weekly, which placed him on its cover and printed a flattering essay about him from Argo producer George Clooney.
• Open Road Films announced that two of its most acclaimed 2012 films, End of Watch and The Grey, both of which opened at No. 1 at the box office, will be re-released in select Los Angeles-area theaters Dec. 7. (Also this week, influential film critic Roger Ebert suggested that End of Watch may score a best picture Oscar nomination.)
• The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that it will honor best actress Oscar hopeful Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games and Silver Linings Playbook) with its Outstanding Performer of the Year Award on Jan. 26, during the fest’s 28th installment. Previous recipients of this award include Charlize Theron, Kate Winslet, Heath Ledger, Helen Mirren, Angelina Jolie, Penelope Cruz, Colin Firth, James Franco and Viola Davis.
• The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced Nov. 28 that it will honor best director Oscar hopeful Robert Zemeckis (Flight) with its Director of the Year Award on Jan. 5, during the fest’s 24th installment. Previous recipients of this award include Stephen Daldry, Ang Lee, Anthony Minghella, Alexander Payne, Sean Penn, Jason Reitman and David O. Russell. (Zemeckis’ Oscar prospects have also been boosted by his omnipresence on the Q&A circuit this season.)
• Best actress Oscar hopeful Naomi Watts (The Impossible) was the guest of honor at a screening of The Impossible that was hosted in New York by Edward Norton, Watts’ friend and co-star from The Painted Veil (2006). Norton told the gathered crowd, which was largely composed of actors who are members of the Screen Actors Guild and, in some cases, also the Academy, as well as Watts’ partner, actor Liev Schreiber, who was seeing the film for the first time: “Since many of us here are in the trade, I think everybody knows it’s not an unsubtle thing to actually represent trauma. People do trauma really badly and some people do trauma really, really well, and it is a very tough thing to not overdo and to do in a credible and beautiful and emotionally revealing way. I was really knocked out by Naomi and Ewan and the children, who are amazing in the film. I think it’s really special, and Naomi’s really special.”
• Best actress Oscar hopeful Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) received a tribute at the Gotham Independent Film Awards on Nov. 26 (the 37-year-old previously received similar career tributes at the Telluride and AFI film festivals) and was also the subject of a Nov. 26 USA Today cover-story profile.
• Best actor Oscar hopeful Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), who is usually quite press-shy, was the subject of a typically quirky but surprisingly revealing Nov. 28 New York Times profile.
• Best director Oscar hopeful Ang Lee (Life of Pi) will receive two special awards: first, for his employment of 3D technology on Pi, the Harold Lloyd Award from the International 3D Society, which will be presented at the society’s annual Creative Arts Awards on Feb. 6; and second, for his use of Dolby Atmos to guide the emotional experience of Pi, the 2013 Filmmaker Award from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, which will be presented at the organization’s 60th MPSE Golden Reel Awards on Feb. 17.
• Best original screenplay Oscar hopeful Martin McDonagh (Seven Psychopaths) seems to be gaining steam for his quirky and ultraviolent screenplay. The Irishman, whose films and the performances within them have long been championed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which votes to determine the nominees and winners of the Golden Globe Awards, snagged a Spirit Award nomination for best original screenplay to go along with the Midnight Madness award that he won at September’s Toronto International Film Festival.
• The results of this year’s Sight & Sound best-of-the-year poll, conducted by the U.K.-based publication, have been revealed. Several best picture Oscar hopefuls made it into the top 10: The Weinstein Co.’s The Master topped the list, Sony Pictures Classics’ Amour came in third, Fox Searchlight’s Beasts of the Southern Wild placed fifth, and Focus Features’ Moonrise Kingdom is seventh.  

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, teaser)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Possibilities
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road, 9/21, R, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, R, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, PG-13, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Major Threats
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Possibilities
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Van Sant (The Promised Land)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Possibilities
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) NEW
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Possibilities
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Abbie Cornish (The Girl) NEW

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Major Threats
John Goodman (Flight)
John Goodman (Argo)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Possibilities
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty)
James Badge Dale (Flight) NEW
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Possibilities
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables)
Emily Blunt (Looper)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Jennifer Ehle (Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Major Threats
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Possibilities
Bernie (Richard Linklater)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Major Threats
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Flight (John Gatins)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Possibilities
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi’s Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip)
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
Possibilities
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer)
This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer) NEW
Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer) NEW

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria, Amour
France, The Intouchables
Denmark, A Royal Affair
Israel, Fill the Void
Switzerland, Sister
Major Threats
Romania, Beyond the Hills
South Korea, Pieta
Iceland, The Deep
Germany, Barbara
Chile, No
Norway, Kon-Tiki
Canada, War Witch
Australia, Lore
Belgium, Our Children
Spain, Blancnieves
Philippines, Bwakaw
Possibilities
Netherlands, Kauwboy
Japan, Our Homeland
Mexico, After Lucia
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Children of Sarajevo
Hungary, Just the Wind
Colombia, The Snitch Cartel
Bulgaria, Sneakers
Greece, Unfair World
Portugal, Blood of My Blood
Serbia, When Day Breaks
Morocco, Death for Sale
Sweden, The Hypnotist
Czech Republic, In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Possibilities
Anna Karenina
Samsara
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Hunger Games
Sister

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Major Threats
A Royal Affair
Django Unchained
Mirror Mirror
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Possibilities
Argo
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Prometheus

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Argo
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Lincoln
Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Possibilities
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
The Impossible
Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Men in Black 3
Major Threats
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Hitchcock
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Possibilities
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Lincoln (John Williams)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Major Threats
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)
Possibilities
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
Samsara (Marcello De Francisci, Lisa Gerrard, Michael Stearns)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Major Threats
Argo
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
Possibilities
Skyfall
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prometheus
Flight

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
Major Threats
The Avengers
The Amazing Spider-Man
Snow White & the Huntsman NEW
Possibilities
Prometheus
John Carter NEW

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney)
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art)
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.)
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions)
Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’ (Gracie Films)
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
Dripped (ChezEddy)
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE “FEINBERG FORECAST”

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry’s most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world’s best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).