Hit movies predictable, Shochiku says

New systems bases success on over 80,000 online surveys

TOKYO – Shochiku claims it has turned the art of predicting hit movies, and marketing them, into a science, with a new system it will launch in July.

The system, tagged “basian-net,” has been developed with domestic telco KDDI and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. It is based on the results of 80,000 online surveys conducted since 2006, compared with the boxoffice data of 370 movies that have been released in Japan.

The system cross-references a range of attributes the movies have, with the various demographics they may appeal to. The results should, in theory, allow Shochiku to not only predict future winners, but also how to market them right down to movie poster design and taglines.

Shochiku plans to use the system for the first time proper for the DVD launch on July 29 of the Houdini biopic “Death Defying Acts.”