NFL Audience Share Might Get "Even Bigger" in "Season Like No Other," Analyst Says
5:46 AM PDT 9/10/2020 by Georg Szalai
The 25 best matchups "will be largely skewed towards Fox," while ESPN, which is "paying the most in rights fees by a wide degree," has two, writes MoffettNathanson’s Michael Nathanson.
"The start of the NFL season should hardly be ignored by media investors," MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathason wrote in a Thursday report previewing what it will mean for the TV industry amid the coronavirus pandemic.
"In a normal year, over the weeks of the entire NFL regular and post-season (excluding Super Bowl), the NFL delivers 28 percent of the national audience impressions at NBC, CBS and ESPN and 60 percent of Fox's impressions," Nathanson wrote. "However, given the lack of new fall 2020 scripted content and the continued impact of SVOD viewing on linear viewing, the share might be even bigger this time around."
He added that "given the premium [ad rates] associated with the NFL, the impact on ad revenues is even more pronounced."
Using ESPN’s most recent NFL power rankings, Nathanson also analyzed each network’s schedule to pick top games. "We think the 25 best matchups across all TV dayparts will be largely skewed towards Fox (11 games)," he concluded. "NBC and CBS have six games ranking in the top 25 best matchups, and ESPN, despite paying the most in rights fees by a wide degree, only has two. However, ESPN will air the top game between Super Bowl champions Kansas City and the regular season #1 team Baltimore Ravens in week 3."
Nathanson also touched on the question of the future of the NFL rights, predicting that "incumbents will retain their key packages" and suggesting that "only Thursday is at risk of change." But the cost of the rights is likely to continue rising, the analyst argued, saying: "As for price, are you ready for some inflation?"
Nathanson reiterated his ratings on the entertainment stocks with an NFL investment, including his "buy" on Fox, with a $36 price target, and "neutral" ratings on Disney (price target $118) and ViacomCBS ($25).
