'Quantum of Solace' to run uncontested
For the Bond sequel, the question is how big it will bowYou know there has been a seismic shift in the global marketplace when a studio tentpole can ring up $200 million before its U.S. bow.
That's the likelihood with this weekend's lone domestic opener, the James Bond film "Quantum of Solace" from Sony and MGM, which registered $180 million internationally by Tuesday and was ringing up foreign coin at a daily clip of $10 million this week. The Daniel Craig starrer has been playing -- oh has it been playing -- in dozens of countries worldwide before its domestic debut in a major reversal of the industry norm.
Sony is handling physical distribution of "Solace" worldwide, but MGM was a 50-50 participant in its $200 million production costs. So the partners crafted the unusual global strategy jointly, expanding on the franchise's traditional U.K.-first rollout to unspool the 22nd Bond film in an unprecedented 60 foreign territories before its Friday release in the U.S. and Canada.
The domestic rollout includes showtimes at 12:01 a.m. Friday in more than 1,600 locations.
"The Bond movies belong to the world," Sony domestic distribution president Rory Bruer said. "They're popular around the world, so getting the dates right -- whether domestic or elsewhere -- was particularly important."
Initially, "Solace" was to bow Nov. 7 in the U.S. and Canada, with only the U.K. and a handful of markets getting the film first. But when Warner Bros. bounced "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" from November to July, executives at Sony and MGM decided to hold back the Bond film one week domestically to open "Solace" closer to the lucrative Thanksgiving period.
Bruer said the film's established international success should help boost must-see interest among domestic moviegoers.
"I certainly believe the buzz is out there, with regard to what it's doing throughout the world," he said. "The world is a much smaller place, and that resonates back to the U.S. as well."
"Solace" has yet to unspool in several overseas markets and won't travel to Japan until January. But its early bow in China and other piracy-prone territories has helped keep unauthorized copies of "Solace" from circulating on the Internet or elsewhere, Bruer said.
"All that has shown up is an unwatchable version on the Internet of really, really poor quality," Bruer said.
Partly because of the global buildup to the stateside bow, the Marc Forster-helmed "Solace" appears likely to mount the biggest domestic Bond opening ever, well outpacing the $47.1 million debut for 2002's "Die Another Day." Many believe a $50 million-plus opening is likely, with a first-weekend haul of $60 million doable if moviegoing proves robust this weekend.
Meanwhile, it bears watching how films held over from recent domestic openings hold up under the 007 assault.
The family comedy "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" from DreamWorks Animation and Paramount will seek as much moolah as possible before Disney bows its animated feature "Bolt" next weekend. Animated films tend to play longer than the average release, but the overlap could cause some tumult.
Elsewhere, Universal has a pair of holdover titles targeting different core audiences than "Solace." Yet each could get jostled in a marketplace that will get only more competitive with each successive frame.
Universal's R-rated comedy "Role Models" grossed $19.2 million in an overachieving bow and could see a big second-session drop if younger demographics flock to see Bond. The Angelina Jolie starrer "Changeling" -- which rung up $7.3 million during its second session in wide release for a $20.6 million cume -- might need a leggy theatrical run if the Clint Eastwood-helmed period drama is to attract notable awards consideration.
Similarly, though it's a foregone conclusion that "Solace" will open well, it's more of an unknown how it will hold up domestically once holiday releases starting hitting multiplexes.
Reviews of the film haven't been as solid as they were for 2006's "Casino Royale" -- which marked Craig's first assignment as 007 -- and that Bond installment proved a far greater hit internationally than in the U.S. and Canada. "Royale" rung up $40.8 million during its first weekend in domestic release, en route to $167.4 million U.S. domestically and $594.2 million in worldwide boxoffice.
Two big films bow during the Nov. 21 frame -- the first session in the holiday boxoffice season that runs through New Year's weekend -- with Disney's "Bolt" and Summit Entertainment's vampire release "Twilight" representing a possible boxoffice combo of $80 million or more. The following Wednesday, three more tentpoles open wide: Fox's epic adventure "Australia," Lionsgate's action sequel "Transporter 3" and Warner Bros.' seasonal comedy "Four Christmases."
If the blur of titles isn't enough to illustrate the holidays' hyper-competitiveness, consider this: "Twilight" was outselling "Solace" almost 2-to-1 this week in presales by MovieTickets.com.
Of course, the core teens and tweens fan base for "Twilight" is more likely to buy tickets online than that for a Bond film. Execs at Sony and MGM also can take solace that their film has marked 50% more sellouts than the Summit film -- though "Twilight" still has another week ring up its presales.