The Report: Yogi Bear Tracking Boo Boo

Yogi Bear Still 2010
Warner Bros.

Tom Cavanaugh plays Ranger Smith, Justin Timberlake provide the voice of Boo Boo and Dan Aykroyd voices Yogi Bear in the Warner Bros. release.

Family-film box office is tough to predict.

Is Warner Bros. smarter than the average studio for green-lighting Yogi Bear? Maybe, but good luck trying to forecast how well the film will perform at the box office when it opens Dec. 17. Family-film debuts are infamously tough to predict. That’s because while studios releasing kiddie pics pay extra for data that gauges must-see sentiment among families, executives at other studios see only general-population survey responses regarding rivals’ releases. “We have yet to find a foolproof way to track children,” says Chuck Viane, distribution head at Disney, which was pleasantly surprised when Tangled grossed $69 million during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Further complications: the impulsive nature of family moviegoers and the disconnect between the targets of promo campaigns — kids — and the parents buying tickets. An early read on Yogi, for instance, indicates a first-weekend picnic basket stuffed with $25 million or so, but some believe it will overperform similar to Fox’s live action/CG film Alvin and the Chipmunks in 2007. That movie opened well north of $40 million — far out-pacing prerelease tracking.           

FORECAST VS. ACTUAL

Despicable Me (July 9)
Consensus forecast: $33 mil
Opening weekend: $56.4 mil           
Difference: +$23.4 mil

The Karate Kid (June 11)           
Consensus forecast: $35 mil
Opening weekend: $55.7 mil
Difference: $22.7 mil

Tangled (Nov. 24)            
Consensus forecast: $30 mil           
Opening weekend: $49 mil
Difference: +$19 mil

Megamind (Nov. 5)           
Consensus forecast: $50 mil           
Opening weekend: $46 mil           
Difference: -$4 mil

Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (July 30)
Consensus forecast: $17 mil
Opening weekend: $12.2 mil
Difference: -$4.8 mil

The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (July 14)           
Consensus forecast: $25 mil
Opening weekend: $17.6 mil           
Difference: -$7.4 mil

Domestic box office. Source: Boxofficemojo