Worldwide Ad Revenue to Grow as Fast as 5.3 Percent Next Year

Globally, television will capture 40.2 percent of all ad dollars this year but shrink to 39.3 percent by 2016 as Internet ad revenue rises.

Advertising revenue worldwide will grow either 5.3 percent in 2014 or 4.6 percent, according to reports due on Monday from competing research firms.

ZenithOptimedia says advertising will hit $532 billion this year, then grow 5.3 percent next year and 5.8 percent in both 2015 and 2016. GroupM, on the other hand, is slightly less optimistic in the short term, predicting $531 billion this year and 4.6 percent growth in 2014, but more optimistic long term, predicting growth of 6.7 percent in 2015 and 6.6 percent in 2016.

ZenithOptimedia says television will continue to capture the lion’s share of ad dollars worldwide, though its dominance will recede somewhat due to the rise of Internet advertising.

In 2013, television will capture 40.2 percent of the ad dollars spent worldwide but will shrink to 39.3 percent in 2016, according to ZenithOptimedia. Desktop Internet will capture 17.9 percent in 2013 and rise to 18.9 percent in 2016. Mobile Internet will capture 2.7 percent this year but surge to 7.7 percent in 2016.

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Taking all worldwide media into account, “China remains the largest single source of ad growth, accounting for 37 percent of new dollars in 2013 and a prospective 31 percent in 2014,” according to the GroupM report.

A trouble spot for several years has been Western Europe, where ad spending in Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal will have contracted 40 percent from 2007 to the end of 2013, according to GroupM. Nevertheless, GroupM predicts 2 percent growth in 2014 for Western Europe.

In the U.S., advertising revenue by total major media will grow 3.5 percent to $166.9 billion this year, according to ZenithOptimedia, then grow 4.7 percent next year, 4.6 percent in 2015 and 4.1 percent in 2016.

Television ad revenue in the U.S. will grow from $64.35 billion this year to $70.16 billion in 2016, according to ZenithOptimedia. Radio will grow from $17.06 billion in 2013 to $17.57 billion in 2016, while cinema advertising is projected to grow from $761 million this year to $881 million in 2016.

The Internet, meanwhile, will continue its torrid pace of growth, from $36.29 billion in the U.S. this year to $58.44 billion in 2016, according to ZenithOptimedia.