Feinberg Forecast: A First Read of the Race to the 93rd Oscars

Mank
Courtesy of Netflix

Amanda Seyfried and Gary Oldman in 'Mank'

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Mank (Netflix)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Soul (Pixar)
The Invisible Man (Universal)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)

Major Threats
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
On the Rocks (A24/Apple)
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

Possibilities
The Outpost (Chicken Soup For The Soul)
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight)
Greyhound (Apple TV+)

Long Shots
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
French Exit
(Sony Classics)
Ammonite
(Neon)
I'm Your Woman (Amazon)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)

Still to See (alphabetically)
Cherry (Apple TV+)
Good Joe Bell (Solstice)
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
News of the World (Universal)
The Prom (Netflix)
Respect (UA)
Supernova (Bleecker Street)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
The White Tiger (Netflix)
Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
David Fincher (Mank)
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Major Threats
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Sofia Coppola (On the Rocks)
Leigh Whannell (The Invisible Man)

Possibilities
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Max Barbakow (Palm Springs)
Radha Blank (The Forty-Year-Old-Version)
Rod Lurie (The Outpost)

Long Shots
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Old Guard)
Armando Iannucci (The Personal History of David Copperfield)
Azazel Jacobs (French Exit)
Francis Lee (Ammonite)
Julia Hart (I'm Your Woman)
Charlie Kaufman (I'm Thinking of Ending Things) — podcast

Still to See (alphabetically)
Ramin Bahrani (The White Tiger) — podcast
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (Good Joe Bell)
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Ron Howard (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
Ryan Murphy (The Prom) — podcast
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Liesl Tommy (Respect)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast [coming this week]
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast

Major Threats
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Ben Affleck (The Way Back)

Possibilities
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
John David Washington (Tenet)

Long Shots
Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) — podcast
Winston Duke (Nine Days)
Jesse Plemons (I'm Thinking of Ending Things) — podcast

Still to See (alphabetically)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Colin Firth (Supernova)
Peter Gerety (Working Man)
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)
Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast
Forest Whitaker (Respect)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]

Major Threats
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Yeri Han (Minari)
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast

Possibilities
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old-Version)
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)
Rashida Jones (On the Rocks) — podcast
Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)

Long Shots
Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (I'm Thinking of Ending Things)
Elisabeth Moss (Shirley) — podcast

Still to See (alphabetically)
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Priyanka Chopra (The White Tiger)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)
Julianne Moore (The Glorias)
Jo Ellen Pellman (The Prom)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)
Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Major Threats
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Will Patton (Minari)
Shia LaBeouf (Pieces of a Woman) — podcast
Jonathan Majors (Da 5 Bloods)

Possibilities
Charles Dance (Mank)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
J.K. Simmons (Palm Springs)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Robert Pattinson (Tenet) — podcast
Clarke Peters (Da 5 Bloods)

Long Shots
Brian Dennehy (Driveways)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Alan Kim (Minari)
Lucas Hedges (French Exit) — podcast
Caleb Landry Jones (The Outpost)
Michael Keaton (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Michael Stuhlbarg (Shirley)
Matthew Macfadyen (The Assistant)

Still to See (alphabetically)
James Corden (The Prom) — podcast
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Reid Miller (Good Joe Bell)
Jesse Plemons (The Little Things) — podcast
Gary Sinise (Good Joe Bell)
Mark Wahlberg (Good Joe Bell)
Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Marlon Wayans (Respect)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Major Threats
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Elizabeth Debicki (Tenet)
Lily Collins (Mank) — podcast

Possibilities
Marisa Tomei (The King of Staten Island)
Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)

Long Shots
Swankie (Nomadland)
Linda May (Nomadland)
Toni Collette (I'm Thinking of Ending Things)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Still to See (alphabetically)
Mary J. Blige (Respect) — podcast
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Connie Britton (Good Joe Bell)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Felicity Jones (The Midnight Sky)
Nicole Kidman (The Prom) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Audra McDonald (Respect)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Alicia Vikander (The Glorias) — podcast
Kerry Washington (The Prom) — podcast
Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)
Helena Zengel (News of the World)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Baron Cohen]
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast

Major Threats
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
French Exit (Patrick deWitt)
The Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)

Possibilities
The Outpost (Eric Johnson & Paul Tamasy)
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)
Greyhound (Tom Hanks) — podcast [one and two]
The Glorias (Sarah Ruhl & Julie Taymor)

Still to See (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Ostot)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Hillbilly Elegy
(Vanessa Taylor)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
Martin Eden (Mauricio Braucci)
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)
The Prom (Chad Beguelin & Bob Martin)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani) — podcast
Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)

Major Threats
Palm Springs
(Andy Siara)
On the Rocks
(Sofia Coppola)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Possibilities
The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) — podcast
I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite (Francis Lee)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Kajillionaire (Miranda July)

Still to See (alphabetically)
Bad Hair (Justin Simien)
Good Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
Respect (Callie Khouri & Tracey Scott Wilson)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)

Rest of Shortlist
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
Totally Under Control (Neon)
Boys State (Apple)
MLK/FBI (IFC)
The Human Factor (Sony Classics)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Way I See It (Focus)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
I Am Greta (Hulu)

Possibilities
Kingdom of Silence (Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic Studios)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Be Water (ESPN)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]
Miss Americana (Netflix)

Long Shots
Francesco (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas Ventures)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
Red Penguins (Universal) — podcast [Gabe Polsky]
American Selfie (MTV)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)
The Mindfulness Movement (Abramorama) — podcast [Jewel]

Still to See (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Acasa, My Home
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart
(HBO)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
City Hall
(Zipporah)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue As An Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Notturno (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (self-distributed)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Collective (Romania)

Still to See
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Beginning (Georgia)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
A Sun (Taiwan)

Not Yet Official Submissions
The Life Ahead (Italy)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Hive (Turkey)
The Disciple (India)
Apples (Greece)
Another Round (Denmark)